Saturday, August 20, 2011

It's Looking Fair For the Fair

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, isolated PM shower. Dew point: 55 Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 76

SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 57

MONDAY: Sunny start. Warmer and getting sticky again by late afternoon. Chance for evening thunderstorms, especially in southern MN. Dew point: 63. High: 82

TUESDAY: Hot and very sticky. Few showers, T-storms (esp. south and west). Dew point around 70. Low: 67. High: 87

WEDNESDAY: More sunshine. Still warm, but less humid. Low: 69. High: 85

THURSDAY: Lot's of sun, even more comfortable. Low: 63. High: 82

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, thunder late? Low: 63. High: 79
SATURDAY: Damp start and unsettled early, more sun by afternoon. Low: 64. High: 83
Photo Courtesy Paul Sundberg:
Paul Sundberg is an amazing photographer from northern Minnesota who captures some of the most stunning images of Lake Superior and the surrounding areas on days when most people hunker down and dare to venture outside. Paul snapped this shot last fall at Grand Marais during a typical storm that develops as colder air begins to descend out of Canada. When the temperature difference from north to south is extreme, the greater and more intense the storm usually gets. It was in a storm like this, that brought down the Edmund Fitzgerald. If at any point during the year you hear of extreme weather conditions up north, you can bet that Paul will capture Mother Nature at her best! Keep up the good work Paul!!
'Gales of November' - Still Several Weeks Away, But the Fair Starts This Week!
I think we are still several weeks away from that time of the year when big waves are whipped up by big storms the crank up around the Great Lakes, but we're getting closer... I mean the Minnesota State Fair starts this Thursday for gosh sakes! I think I already have my 2011 Fair food lineup all set to go, now it's time cut some calories/drop some pounds before I put on the 5lbs extra at the fair eating all that wonderful (but not so wonderful for you) food. I'm happy to report that opening day of the Fair (Thursday) is looking good; not too hot and not too wet. Tuesday WILL be hot and sticky, but that summery stuff should be drifting south by the end of the week.
What to Expect at the Fair 
 The image above shows the GFS Model numbers for the week ahead. If you are preparing or planning on the weather this week at the Minnesota State Fair, keep in mind that Tuesday looks very hot and sticky. I could see Heat Index Values into the 90s by Tuesday afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew point values around 70F - if not into the low 70s. Showers and thunderstorms may slide through the state late Tuesday or early Wednesday, but the front passes and pushes the hot and sticky stuff farther south by the start of Fair Thursday. Dew Point values by Thursday look to be in the upper 50s with sunshine and quiet conditions, not too shabby for this year's kickoff.
Spotty Shower Chance of Sunday
 A weak disturbance sliding through the state today may kick up a spotty shower or sprinkle later today, nothing rough. We have a better chance of showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday.

Monday Night Thunder Potential
 Accumulated Rainfall Through 7pm Tuesday
It appears the heaviest rain will be across southern Minnesota Monday night into Tuesday. However, the Hydrological Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (Whew!) has the heaviest rain into Iowa.

Something's Brewing in the Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a cluster of storms drifting into the Eastern Caribbean, which is likely to become IRENE. The extended model runs show this cluster of storms intensifying as it nears Florida by the middle part of next week. If the current model runs hold up, I think IRENE could be our first Atlantic based hurricane of 2011. The extended model runs have pushed this into the Gulf of Mexico and across the Florida Peninsula by the end of next week/next weekend. Don't be surprised if IRENE starts showing up in headlines in few days - we are nearing the peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season after all.
GFS Model Solution By Friday
The image below is the GFS Model solution for what could be Hurricane IRENE by Friday 

That's all for now, thanks for checking in, have a good rest of your weekend
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

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