Saturday, August 6, 2011

Not So Sweaty Sunday

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SUNDAYAM clouds and perhaps a few lingering showers northeast of the Twin Cities, gradual PM clearing. Dew point: 63 (falling). Winds: NW 10-20+ High: 78
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and a little more comfy. Low: 61

MONDAY: Fading sun, late day shower or storm possible - better chance by the evening. High: 81

TUESDAY: A few clouds to start, otherwise a brighter, better day. Dew points falling into the 50s by afternoon, feeling very comfy! Low: 63. High: 78

WEDNESDAY: Sun and cloud mix with a spotty afternoon shower possible. Dew point: 55. Low: 60. High: 78

THURSDAY: Slight increase in humidity, but not bad - T-storms possible late across western MN. Low: 62. High: 83

FRIDAY: Spotty thunder chances. Dew point: Low to mid 60s. Clearing overnight. Low: 65. High: 81
SATURDAY: Sunnier start, a few more clouds by the afternoon and a couple of spotty showers across the northern half of MN. Low: 65. High: 78
Saturday CB's
I took this picture on Saturday afternoon on the northwest side of the Cities, looking northeast as a line of strong to severe storms rolled through east central MN. Cumulonimbus clouds towering high into the atmosphere brought heavy rain and winds to the northern & northeast suburbs. 
The satellite image below shows the same cloud(s) from nearly 23,000 miles high

Waterlogged Rain Buckets Over the Last 7 Days
Although some parts in and around the Twin Cities didn't get a whole lot of rain over the weekend, the 7 day radar rain estimates show some pretty waterlogged scenarios. Up to 6" or more has fallen in NW WI from last week and what they picked up over the weekend. The northern side of the Twin Cities had some decent rains earlier this week, radar estimates there show nearly 1" to 3" 

Not So Sweaty Sunday
I'm happy to report that the muggiest air has shifted off to the south and east, so our Sunday is looking a little better even though we'll be peeking in and out of clouds.
These Were the Saturday Afternoon Dew Point Values
Note that the southern 1/3 of MN, including the Twin Cities were around 70F for dew point values, which are considered almost tropical!

Sunday Dew Point Values
Note how values are dropping into the 60s for the southern 1/3 of MN - It'll still be a little muggy, but not as bad!

Our Next Thunderstorm Chance
As Sunday begins to dry out, especially late in the day, we won't have any real shower or storm chances until later Monday afternoon/evening when a disturbance rolls through. It appears the heaviest rain/thunder will swing off to our south, but a few rumbles of thunder and heavier downpours can't be ruled out for us by then.
An Overall MUCH Cooler Weather Pattern Shaping Up This Week
Unlike the last several weeks of the hot and sticky summery mess that we've had, our 2nd week of August is looking quite tolerable with temperatures jumping around on either side of 80F. To be honest, the way this summer has been going, I never thought I would be talking about 70 degree high temperatures for the 2nd week of August.
Why such the sudden shift?  
Interestingly, it's almost as if there is a stationary low pressure system trying to develop over the Hudson Bay with more of a northwesterly flow developing aloft as a result. This will help to bring the cooler Canadian air into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region, while we will only get glancing blows from the hot and very humid stuff as it tries to bubble north.
Looks Like A MUCH Cooler August Shaping Up!
Take a look at the dramatic shift in the temperatures just a few thousand feet of the ground from Yesterday into the middle of the month. The northwesterly flow will deepen and each passing (weaker) storm from the north and west should only help to reinforce the chillier air...

Saturday (Yesterday) 850mb Temps (Warmer)
Middle of the Month 850mb Temps (MUCH Cooler)
Thanks for checking in, have a wonderful rest of your weekend!
Todd Nelson

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