Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Gusty winds. NW 10-20+ High: 58
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, few showers possible over far southern MN (probably passing south of MSP metro). Low: 44
"...For nearly all communities in the state (of Minnesota), October temperatures have been the warmest since either 1963 or 1938." - from Professor Mark Seeley in this week's WeatherTalk blog; details below.
2nd warmest October 1 - 13 period since 1879 for the Twin Cities (source: Pete Boulay, MN State Climate Office).
Highest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 10/1 - 10/13
Length of period: 13 days
Rank Value Ending Date
1 67.9 10/13/1879
2 66.7 10/13/2011
3 62.8 10/13/1938
4 62.4 10/13/1997
5 61.1 10/13/1930
Wave Heights. The map above is courtesy of NOAA, valid 8 pm on Saturday. The NWS has issued a Storm Warning for Lake Superior. Winds are expected to gust up to 51 knots (60 MPH). Maximum wave heights of up to 39 feet are expected with this storm.
1,805 tornadoes in 2011 nationwide.
More tornadoes in North Carolina (107) than Texas (105) this year. Source: SPC. More details below.
A Very Soggy Year In The Big Apple. The latest New York City data from NOAA:
...THE FOURTH WETTEST YEAR AT CENTRAL PARK... SO FAR...61.86 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AT CENTRAL PARK FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH 1100 AM TODAY OCTOBER 14...MAKING 2011 THE FOURTH WETTEST YEAR RECORDED AT CENTRAL PARK.
THIS IS 22.31 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE YEAR TO THIS DATE. RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1869.
Warmest First 2 Weeks Of October. Here are some impressive statistics about our early October warmth, courtesy of Mark Seeley in his blog, Minnesota Weathertalk: "Many Minnesota weather observers have reported the warmest first two weeks of October, averaging from 12 to 14 degrees F warmer than normal. For nearly all communities in the state October temperatures have been the warmest since either 1963 or 1938. Though temperatures are expected to decline over the next several days, another warming trend is forecast for later next week. "
Strongest Storms/Winds of 2011. Dr. Mark Seeley has a very good summary of Minnesota's severe weather season, with input from Todd Krause at the local National Weather Service office in Chanhassen: "31 tornadoes in MN during 2011, strongest were two EF-2 storms (111-135 mph winds), one in Houston County on May 22 and one July 1st near Tyler in Lincoln County. (map above courtesy of SPC; tornado reports in red).
Largest hail reported in the state: 2.75" diameter (baseball size) in Houston County on April 10th; 3.2" diameter in Mille Lacs County on May 10th; 4.25" diameter (softball size) in Meeker County, 4" diameter in Pine County, 3.5" diameter in Benton County, 3" diameter in Stearns County, and 2.75" (baseball size) in Renville, Wright, and Sherburne Counties all on July 1st.
Most significant wind storms: July 1st in Redwood County several people reported wind damages associated with 100 mph winds; also on July 1st stations in Yellow Medicine and Renville Counties reported 70-90 mph winds; August 1st weather stations in Pope County reported winds up to 120 mph which knocked down transmission towers near Glenwood; September 1st in Kittson County a wind of 121 mph was measured; 80 mph wind in Roseau County on July 4th and near Sauk Center on July 10th; Kittson, Roseau, and Marshall Counties reported winds of 85-95 mph on July 20th; Polk County reported winds up to 90 mph on July 24th; and Big Stone County reported winds up to 95 mph on July 26th."
2011 Tornado Count. As of October 14: 1,805 (preliminary) tornadoes from coast to coast, touch downs in ever state except for Utah, Idaho, Vermont and New Hampshire. Data courtesy of NOAA's SPC. A few state tornado counts for '11:
Alabama: 166 (most in the USA)
North Carolina: 107
Entire State Of Louisiana Designated USDA Disaster Area. Delta Farm Press has the details: "The USDA has designated the entire state of Louisiana, which includes 64 parishes, as natural disaster areas due the combined effects of severe storms, tornadoes, severe spring flooding, Tropical Storm Lee, widespread drought and excessive heat that began in January and continues.
“Louisiana producers can continue to count on USDA to provide emergency assistance during difficult times,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “America’s farmers and rural communities are vitally important to our nation’s economy, producing the food, feed, fiber and fuel that continue to help us grow and out-compete the rest of the world. President Obama and I arecommitted to using the resources at our disposal to reduce the impact of Tropical Storm Lee and other disasters affecting Louisiana producers and help to get those affected back on their feet.”
Farmers and ranchers in the following counties in Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas also qualify for natural disaster assistance because their counties are contiguous."
Brisk. Yesterday was 2 degrees cooler than average in the Twin Cities metro area; a high of 57. Winds gusted to 38 mph in Minneapolis/St. Paul, 36 mph at St. Cloud.
Halloween Preview. Talk about going out on a limb. The 500 mb map above (18,000 feet) is valid at 1 pm on Sunday, October 30, showing a dry west/northwest wind flow aloft from Minnesota westward across the Dakotas. That should translate into dry weather, temperatures in the 50s, even a slight chance of highs closer to 60. It's early, but right now the potential for a major storm on Halloween weekend looks remote for the Upper Midwest and much of the west, a better chance of rain over the southeast into the Mid Atlantic states. Stay tuned...
Adapting To Climate Change? Here's an e-mail response from Dr. Tenney Naumer, a climate scientist based in Brazil.
"This entire discussion misses the point that for severe climate change for many regions there is no such thing as adaptation.
Adaptation implies that you stick around and find a solution to what is hitting you. You know, like building dykes, finding alternative sources of water, making buildings stronger so that they can withstand increasingly severe storms, etc.
How do you adapt to a good portion of Florida being under water and most of the underground water being ruined by salt infiltration?
There is no adaptation. You lost.
Let's suppose a good portion of Texas becomes a dustbowl -- nothing can be grown on it. The dust storms and winds are so bad that solar and wind power plants become useless.
Another fail -- you lost again.
What about northern Canada? The melt will be so severe that the permafrost becomes perma-mush and nothing can be transported in or out by road. Pipelines sink into the mush and break.
Major fail -- you lost again.
Let's suppose that the warming becomes so severe in the Arctic that Greenland's ice sheet loses so much of its mass due to melting that the thermohaline circulation goes wacky for a decade causing major disturbances to agriculture, leading to a 50% loss in global food production.
Do you adapt to that? Nope.
Let's suppose that the Midwest goes through a severe drought, then a 500-year flood, then a drought, then another 500-year flood, then another drought....
Can farmers adapt to that? Just ask one."