47-52 F. high temperatures from today through Halloween.
60 F. highs not out of the question by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, November 1 and 2.
No major storms for Minnesota through the first 10 days of November.
Hurricane Rina: major hurricane with 110-115 mph winds, heading for Cancun/Cozumel, may threaten Cuba and Florida by the weekend.
6-12" snow expected in downtown Denver today - Winter Storm Warnings in effect.
I-80 closed between Cheyenne and Laramie, Wyoming, due to drifting snow.
85 degree high in Kansas City, tying a record for the latest 85 reading since 1963, 1952, &1950. Source: NOAA.
“Tampa Bay hasn’t had a direct impact from a major hurricane for 90 years,” he said. “And, we have roughly 2.5 million people living in the area now. The potential for a catastrophe exists.” - article below on the 90th anniversary of Tampa's Tarpon Springs Hurricane.
Were some of the April 27 tornadoes that destroyed so much of Alabama "unsurvivable"? The story below.
"America and Europe face a "disaster in the making" because of Congress budget cuts to a critical weather satellite, one of Barack Obama's top science officials has warned." - article in The Guardian below.
Unsettled, Showery Into Friday. Another clipper-like wrinkle of cold air aloft dives southeast, keeping patchy clouds and a few showers/sprinkles over Minnesota into Friday. 500 mb map above valid 4 pm Friday.
Denver: Instant Winter. It's hard to believe the mercury soared to a record 80 in Denver on Monday. Today it will snow, heavy at times, with a potential for 4-8" on the east side of the I-25 corridor, as much as 1-2 feet for the foothills of the Rockies. More information from the Denver National Weather Service here.
Rina: Heading For South Florida? It's still early and uncertainty is significant, but a number of computer solutions bring a weakened Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Rina into the Gulf of Mexico, before taking an eastward turn toward Florida. The GFDL model has 70 mph sustained winds, just below hurricane criteria, near the Florida Keys by 2 pm Saturday afternoon. Data courtesy of NOAA and NHC, map courtesy of Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation.
Hurricane Rina Projected Path. The storm is forecast to slow down considerably, adding to the uncertainty. Odds favor a track over (or just south of) Florida by the weekend, but it's too early for specifics about timing and intensity. People living in Florida should stay up on the very latest forecasts and potential watches/warnings.
* The local Tampa NWS has more on the Tarpon Springs Hurricane here.
- Click -- 71 percent said they owned a NOAA weather radio on April 27.
- Click -- 67 percent on April 27 had a tornado safety plan and followed it.
- Click -- 51 percent took immediate protective action upon hearing the warnings.
Dry, Pleasant Halloween For Much Of America. Showery rains are possible next Monday for New England (some wet snow for the highest elevations?) The rest of the USA should be dry, unseasonably mild weather from Chicago, Des Moines and the Twin Cities westward to Denver, Salt Lake City and Dallas.
Slow-Motion Autumn. The 500 mb map above is valid November 10. I still don't see any signs of a high-amplitude pattern (deep troughts or ridges) - capable of whipping up major storms. With a strong zonal, west-to-east wind flow aloft, most of America will enjoy a modified-Pacific airmass, temperatures trending warmer than average through the first weei, possibly 2 weeks of November, with the coldest Arctic air remaining bottled up well to the north over northern Canada. No wintry jabs are imminent.
Feels Like Fall. Jackets are back, temperatures dropping off to "average" for late October. Tuesday highs ranged from a brisk 43 at Duluth to 50 at St.Cloud, 56 in the Twin Cities and 58 at Rochester.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Flawed USGS Study Still Links Southwest Drying To Increasing Carbon Dioxide Pollution And Climate Change. Climate Progress has the analysis and story: "A new U.S. Geological Survey analysis finds that, as climate scientists have been predicting for decades, the Southwestern U.S. appears to be drying in part because of rising levels of carbon dioxide:
The decrease of floods in the southwestern region is consistent with other research findings that this region has been getting drier and experienced less precipitation as a likely result of climate change.The study, “Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels?” appearing in Hydrological Sciences Journal, however, relies on dubious and “absurd” assumptions, according to a number of climate scientists I spoke. Amazingly, the lead author seems to lack an understanding of core issues germane to his analysis, as we’ll see. The finding about SW drying that I’ve focused on isn’t the focus the main spin the USGS and media have given the study. The USGS focused on what they claim is the lack of a “significant relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and the size of floods over the last 100 years” in the three other regions they rather arbitrarily divide the country into — northeast, southeast, and northwest."