Saturday, October 8, 2011

What a Warm October So Far...

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SUNDAY: Showers linger, mainly west. Still mild. High: 80
SUNDAY NIGHT:  Partly cloudy. A few showers across western Minnesota. Low: 57

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cool front stalls, chance for showers and storms lingers, mainly across western MN early. Spotty showers or a storm slides east through the PM hours. High:75

TUESDAY: Damp start, then clearing through the day. Low: 55. High: 74

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Turning unsettled by the afternoon with a few spotty showers developing. Low: 56. High:70

THURSDAY: Breezy and turning cooler with some light rain possible. Feeling like October again. Low: 52. High: 64
FRIDAY: Lingering clouds and showers, much cooler. Low: 43. High: 57
SATURDAY: Still chilly, more sun by afternoon. Low: 40. High: 54
The Summer That Won't Quit
I found it quite strange that I was still watering summer flowers and tomato plants only a few weeks ago. I stepped outside today to do some Fall/Halloween decorating (not quite as nice as the picture below) and it felt more like summer. I was actually sweating a little in the 80 degree heat planting mums and standing up scarecrows... It certainly seems like the summer that won't quit doesn't it? In fact, yesterday's 80F+ high temperature made it the 7th consecutive 80F degree day this October only one day shy of a record. If we hit 80F Sunday, we'll tie the record of 8 consecutive 80F degree days for the month of October set in 1953.
Why Has It Been So Warm?
The upper level winds tell the tale. The jet stream has been situated to our north thanks to a slow moving high pressure system allowing sunshine and much above average temperatures to rain down over the last several days. This high amplitude weather pattern is beginning to break down as the west coast storm (responsible for high elevation snow) slides inland.

High Temperatures From Average
Note where the ride of high pressure is and well above average temperatures are vs. the trough of low pressure out west along with much below average temperatures in the west.
It's a Battle Field
Right along the transition line from cooler than average temps to above average temps, showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing with heavy rain and some severe weather.
Beautiful Texas Rain
We have been in a severe drought! This rain is beautiful and so needed! Thank you God!

Some Severe Weather Too
This is a weather video from Fullerton, Nebraska of a developing wall cloud from a supercell thunderstorm

Not Quite Done With The Rain
The good news is that folks that REALLY need the rain, like those in Texas and Oklahoma, they will continue to pick up additional rain through the early part of the week as this slow moving front inches east.
Cooler Weather On The Way
As much as some folks would love to have the 80s stick around for the rest of the month, temperatures will begin to fall this week. We are likely to have temperatures back to average if not below by this upcoming weekend. As it looks now, temperatures by the end of the week/weekend could be cold enough for a few flurries across the northern part of Minnesota.

Temperatures Aloft This Weekend
Temps aloft still look quite mild across the eastern half of the nation
Temperatures Aloft by the End of the Week
It appears that at by the end of the week, a pretty significant whack of cool air will funnel in from Canada. This will drop temperatures nearly 30 degrees from where they were over the last 7 to 8 days. Some folks across the state may in fact have a tough time getting into the 50s for high temps by then.

Enjoy the mild weather while you can, average to below average temperatures is in our not too distant future. Have a great rest of your weekend!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

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