54 F. high Friday (shortly after midnight).
52 F. afternoon high in the Twin Cities.
27 F. high temperature November 25, 2010.
3-4 pm. Rain may change over to wet snow after 3 or 4 pm this afternoon.
7 pm. temperatures are forecast to drop to 32 this evening. Most roads will remain wet in and near the metro area through the dinner hour. Watch bridges and secondary roads later this evening and tonight - a few may become icy.
.12" precipitation today (NAM). Much of that will fall as light rain - a coating of slush possible on lawns/fields by evening.
Mr. Skilling is apolitical and understands the risks of speaking out on an issue like global warming, but he feels compelled to. “I questioned it, but it’s happening, no doubt,” he said. “The models have said all along that the Arctic latitudes would warm fastest and spark changes throughout the world......“You’d have to have your head buried in the sand not to say there’s something going on. There’s a mosaic of influences, including human effects, and how you rate them is difficult. But it is going on, and we have to study it.” - from a New York Times article on Tom Skilling below.
Accumulating Snow Up North. The Duluth office of the NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for some 2-4" snowfall amounts north of Duluth. Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY. * TIMING AND LOCATION: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD REGION AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. * MAIN IMPACT: THE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE TRAVELING DIFFICULT IF NOT HAZARDOUS.
Little More Than A Slushy Coating. The European ECMWF model was right. By the time northwest winds kick in later today and it's cold enough for snow - most of the moisture will be well east of MSP. The latest NAM model is still suggesting a cold rain changing to wet snow by late afternoon or evening - maybe a coating of slush on lawns and fields. No mega-problems on the highways, and the sun should come out Sunday with highs above freezing - no epic headaches getting home, by car or plane.
Plowable Up North? The latest NAM model continues to print out some 2-5" snowfall amounts for the Iron Range and Minnesota Arrowhead - subsequent lake effect on the backside of this next storm whipping up some 2-4" amounts for the snow belts of northern Wisconsin. Snowfall amounts in the MSP metro area should be slim to nil.
Shifting Gears. The arrival of seasonably cold air will set off a cold rain changing to snow across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes later today. Infrared satellite courtesy of the Naval Research Lab.
...122 YEARS OF RECORDS FOR FIRST DATE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.* ...THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS 11/16. ...75 PERCENT OF THE YEARS HAD RECEIVED MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY 11/25. ...84 PERCENT OF THE YEARS HAD RECEIVED MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY 12/1. ...EARLIEST DATE OF FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL:10/12/2006. ...LATEST DATE OF FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL:12/16/1965.
LOOKING BACK AT THE 2010-2011 SNOW SEASON...NO MEASURABLE SNOW WAS RECORDED AT BOTH CHICAGO-O'HARE AND ROCKFORD AIRPORT UNTIL DECEMBER 1ST. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON MAY NOT OCCUR AT CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD UNTIL AFTER DECEMBER 1ST
Friday: Transition Day. Not quite as spectacular as Thanksgiving, Friday temperatures were still nearly 20 degrees warmer than average over central and southern Minnesota. Highs ranged from 37 at International Falls to 46 St. Cloud, and 52 in the Twin Cities (afternoon high).
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota: