No precipitation forecast for the Twin Cities looking out 84 hours (NAM model).
50 F. possible Saturday, again Monday and Tuesday of next week.
No major storms in sight through November 24.
ECMWF (European) weather model did a much better job on this storm than the (U.S.) NAM or GFS, hinting at a more easterly track as early Monday morning.
"This will be extremely dangerous and life threatening stsorm of an epic magnitude rarely experienced. All people in the area should take precautions to safeguard their lives and property." - National Weather Service discussion out of Fairbanks, tracking what may Alaska's most dangerous storm since 1974. Details below.
2011 Storm Facts: 7th hurricane season to have 18 or more storms. Also 1st time we’ve had 18 or more storms in consecutive seasons, with 2010 having 19 storms.
Year # of Storms:
*Number could still go up
No Snow as of November 8 - how unusual is that? I asked Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climate Office. Here is his response: "It is fairly unusual. The median date for the first trace of snow in the Twin Cities is October 16. Since 1948 the Twin Cities has gone as late as November 21 (1953) when 1.5" of snow fell. There have been 4 other years since 1948 when the "first trace" of snow has been November 9 to the 12th.
Winter Weather Advisories. 2-6" of snow is expected from near Des Moines to Waterloo, the Wisconsin Dells, Oshkosh and Green Bay. The latest watches and warnings for the USA are here.
Unlike Anything I've Ever Seen Before. Check out this verbage from the Fairbanks office of the National Weather Service:
THIS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM... THE WORST ON RECORD SINCE THE BERING SEA STORM OF NOVEMBER 10 TO 11 IN 1974. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE STORM WILL GENERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 50 TO 70 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PEAK GUSTS TO 90 MPH WHERE THE WIND IS CHANNELED BY HILLS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES PAST BERING STRAIT. THE STORM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL CAUSE TIDES TO BE 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA UP TO BERING STRAIT. WEST AND SOUTH FACING COASTLINE WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IN EASTERN NORTON SOUND THE FLOODING WILL BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED WHERE THE COAST IS FREE OF ICE. SEA ICE BORDERING THE SHORELINE MAY BE PUSHED ONSHORE.
* Reports late Tuesday night indicate mandatory evacuations underway for low-lying neighborhoods of Nome, Alaska.
Nome Webcam. Click here to see the latest conditions in Nome, Alaska.
NASA: Asteroid Video. Here are more details and a great video clip focusing on Tuesday's close enounter with an asteroid: “Using radar data, scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory created this six-frame movie of asteroid 2005 YU55. The data was obtained Nov. 7, 2011 using NASA’s Goldstone Solar System Radar (located at the Deep Space Network facility in Goldstone, Ca.) At the time, the space rock was approximately 860,000 miles (1.38 million kilometers) away from Earth. At its closest approach on Nov. 8, 2011, YU55 will be about 200,000 miles from Earth. It poses no threat. “
Tropical Storm Sean. Packing 50 mph sustained winds, "Sean" is churning up 10-15 foot seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda.
Projected Track. All the NHC computer models whisk "Sean" to the north/northeast, possibly impacting the Canadian Maritimes by Friday.
Tipton, Oklahoma Mesonet Destroyed. The tornado that touched down on Tipton, Oklahoma Monday destroyed the local, automated weather station. Here is a graph showing the last observations before the twister struck (click on 3 day observations). Image courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet.
Could Terrain Influence Tornado Formation? I've wondered the same thing over the years - people describe "favored tracks" for tornadoes up river valleys, etc. Al.com takes a look: "HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- The idea first occurred to Kevin Knupp after the deadly 1989 tornado that hit Airport Road. Is it possible that an area's topography and surface characteristics can influence a tornado? More than 20 years later, Knupp - a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - is continuing to advance that theory. If true, it could give more insight into the phenomenon of tornadoes. But drawing firm conclusions on a tornado's influence is difficult because twisters are rare and, Knupp said, "the (scientific) process is slow."
Photo credit above: "An aerial photo of Anderson Hills subdivision following the April 27 tornadoes. The subdivision rests on a downslope, which UAH Professor Kevin Knupp said may cause tornadoes to intensify. (The Huntsville Times file photo)"
Wake Up And Smell ..... The Internet? Neatorama.com has the next evolutionary phase of the World Wide Web: "Meet Olly, a "web connected smell robot" that converts tweets, Facebook notifications, RSS feeds - whatever you want - into smells:
Olly has a removable section in the back which you can fill with any smell you like. It could be essential oils, a slice of fruit, your partner's perfume or even a drop of gin. [...] Olly is stackable, so if you have more than one, you can assign each one to a different service with a different smell. Connect one to Twitter and another to your calendar. Before you know it, you'll have a networked internet smell centre."
PG-Rated Weather Page. Well, that's one way to make a point.
Ah, If Every Day Could Be A Wednesday. Image frame grab courtesy of failblog.org.
On The Fringe. Tuesday Minnesota was on the northern fringe of an intensifying storm over Missouri with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs ranged from 45 at Rochester to 47 in the Twin Cities, 49 at St. Cloud and 50 Redwood Falls.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
"It’s time to add another billion-dollar weather disaster to the growing 2011 total of these costly disasters: the extraordinary early-season Northeast U.S. snowstorm of October 29, which dumped up to 32 inches of snow, brought winds gusts of 70 mph to the coast, and killed at least 22 people…. The damage estimate in Connecticut alone is $3 billion, far more than the damage Hurricane Irene did to the state. Hundreds of thousands still remain without power a week after the storm, with full electricity not expected to be restored until Monday. The October 29 snow storm brings the 2011 tally of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters to fourteen, thoroughly smashing the previous record of nine such disasters, set in 2008. Between 1980 – 2010, the U.S. averaged 3.5 of these weather disasters per year. Through August, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) estimated that ten weather disasters costing at least $1 billion had hit the U.S., at total cost of up to $45 billion. However, the October 29 snow storm brings us up to eleven billion-dollar disasters, and a new disaster analysis done by global reinsurance company AON Benfield adds three more."
How Global Warming "Skeptics" Roll. The graphic above tells it all - professional deniers will continue to cherry-pick data. In fact, for some of these professional skeptics there is no evidence, no smoking gun, that will ever change their minds. Planetsave.com has more: "This dynamic graph (or GIF, to be technical) is one of the best graphics I’ve seen (ever.. on any topic). It so accurately explains, or showcases, global warming “skeptic” (i.e. denier) logic. Basically, it highlights how they can go on cherry picking for ages and continue saying “the world is cooling” when it’s obviously warming."
Warming Arctic Wakes Up Methane And Microbes, Study Shows. The Medill School at Northwestern has the story: "As global warming pushes temperatures in the Arctic up faster than anywhere else, concern is rising about releasing the vast reservoir of greenhouse gas-forming carbon trapped in permafrost. The fate of the carbon could rest on some of the tiniest inhabitants of the frozen landscape: millions of microbes that respond rapidly to thaw, according to new research published in the on-line edition of Nature this week. Microbes frozen for thousands of years can spring to life and digest the carbon to release heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, amplifying warming and melting. Scientists can't yet predict how much of the carbon stored in Arctic permafrost will reach the atmosphere, but microbes could play a pivotal role."