55 F. high in Rochester yesterday.
0" no accumulation expected in the Twin Cities tonight into Wednesday, storm tracks far enough east.
5-8" snow possible in Rochester by midday Wednesday. Winter Storm Watch posted for southeastern MN (includes southeastern suburbs).
10.4" snow predicted for Eau Claire, WI by midday tomorrow (NAM model using "Cobb Method").
November 18: average date of the first 1" snowfall in the Twin Cities.
December 20: average date of the first 4" snowfall in the Twin Cities. Source: MN State Climatology Office.
May 2: last trace of snow flurries in the Twin Cities.
Oklahoma Battered By Tornadoes, Hail. Here's the latest from the L.A. Times: "Some residents two miles south of Tipton, Okla., were trapped after their house was damaged by the storms, but they were eventually rescued and were not injured, Tillman County emergency management director Jeffrey Rector told the Associated Press. At about 3 p.m. Central time Monday, storm spotters reported a large tornado south of Tipton, about 130 miles southwest of Oklahoma City, headed toward Snyder. The same tornado apparently touched down in Tillman County, destroying a structure and damaging at least three others, according to KOCO-TV. The tornado weakened before striking Snyder, but additional tornadoes associated with the same storm system have also touched down in the area, the station reported."
Sharp Cut-Off. Am I nervous? You bet. Models are hinting at 6-10" snow from Albert Lea to Rochester, with less than 1" for the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities. A slight jog to the north/west could push heavier snow amounts into the immediate Twin Cities, but the odds of this happening are small, less than 1 in 4.
Rochester: Instant Winter. While Twin Cities commuters breathe one big collective sigh of relief (and snow lovers whine), folks in Rochester, Minnesota may get more snow than they bargained for. The latest NAM model prints out .82". A 10:1 ratio seems reasonable, meaning a good chance of 8" snow. Now the ground is relatively mild, some of that snow will melt on contact, but I could still envision a big pile of white by midday Wednesday. The heaviest snows are forecast to come tomorrow morning around breakfast.
Tropical Storm "Sean"? According to NHC there is a 70% probability an area of disturbed weather off the southeast coast will strengthen to tropical storm status in the next 48 hours. Thankfully, steering winds should nudge "Sean" away from the east coast of the USA.
Projected Track. All the models whisk "Sean" to the north/northeast - it may threaten the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday with coastal beach erosion and tropical storm force gusts.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TUESDAY: Winter Storm Watch southeastern MN and much of Wisconsin. Any sun gives way to increasing clouds. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 42
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, dry in the metro - heavy wet snow possible far southeastern MN and western WI. Low: 32