Friday, December 2, 2011

Saturday Snow

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:


SATURDAY: Shovelable/plowable snowfall event begins by midday, mainly across southeast Minnesota. The Twin Cities looks to get clipped with some light stuff, could be worth of some light shoveling/brushing in the southeast Metro, by the evening hours. High: 34 Winds: SW turning NW 5-15mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Heaviest snow potential is from the afternoon hours of Saturday through the evening hours of Saturday. Total accumulations across the Twin Cities: 1" to 3" (heavier amounts on the southeast side of the metro and the lighter amounts on the northwest side of the metro). Low: 23. Winds: NNW 5-15mph

SUNDAY: Lingering flurries possible very early, otherwise a sunnier start with a cloudier afternoon/evening as another clipper drops south of the International border. Could see some light snow/flurries late. High: 31 Winds: WNW 5-10mph

MONDAY: Breezy, feels like December! Few scattered light snow showers possible early. Low: 16. High: 22 Winds: N 10-20mph

TUESDAY: Cold sunshine, brisk wind chill. Low: 8. High: 19. Winds: SW 10-20mph

WEDNESDAY: Still cold, increasing PM clouds. Low: 12. High: 25

THURSDAY: Cold with some sun. Low: 13. High:19

FRIDAY: Still cold with a few passing clouds. Low: 8. High: 18 

Snow Pictures
Look closely, this picture is not from around here... This is from a good friend of mine, Rich Koivisto, who lives in Bullhead City, Arizona. He took a run up to the Las Vegas, NV airport and snapped these pictures south of Sin City. Thanks Rich for the picture, keep up the good work!
 

     I had the pleasure of spending time with my late father's mom yesterday. I can't say enough good things about my grandmother, who's age shall remain unsaid, every good grandson knows not to reveal that information! She is a spry and seemingly young lady who doesn't look a day over 60. Since I can remember, I have been making Christmas cookies with her and have now continued the tradition with my two amazing boys.
     The holiday spirit may be running a little higher today across the southeastern part of the state with some wintry weather. The storm track will take most the plowable snow across the southeastern tip of the state, perhaps bringing a little more of the holiday cheer that way. With that said, Christmas is only a few short weeks away and some may be wondering if in fact it will be white. Last year on today's date, we picked up 5.1" of snow and ended up having 19" of snow on the ground on the 25th. A white Christmas is one that has at least an inch of snow on the ground, which occurs nearly 3 out of every 4 years. Today's light snow should help bring us closer to that reality, but one thing is for sure, it will sure feel like winter next week!


More on the Southwest Winds
This is a pretty amazing water vapor satellite over the southwest, note the incredibly dry air (yellow & orange colors). This was in response to the extremely strong and dry winds blowing from California earlier this week.
“An AWIPS image of 1-km resolution MODIS 6.7 ┬Ám water vapor channel data (below) provided a more detailed view of the pocket of middle tropospheric dry air at 21:20 UTC on 30 November 2011. Note the intricate wave structure seen on the image, a result of the strong winds interacting with the terrain of the region.”


MODIS Satellite
This is a visible satellite image of the dust blowing out into the Pacific Ocean thanks to the strong winds:
  A Wild Lake Tahoe Weather Picture
Flavia Sordelet gave us permission to use her photo. This is pretty wild for the lake. It’s usually very tame!




Video of High Wind aftermath near SLC
Some of these images are amazing... take a look HERE: 

High Wind aftermath from Pasadena California
This is pretty crazy... can't believe how much damage there was from this Santa Ana wind event.

Local Plowable Snow Event
A plowable snow event is still in the works for those in southeast MN. A classic "Texas Hook" storm closes in on the Upper Midwest with the heaviest snow falling its northwest flank. The closer the low track is to La Crosse, WI the closer the heaviest snow (typically) is to the Twin Cities. Note how the low is tracking a little farther southeast of La Crosse, which will keep the heaviest snow southeast of the Twin Cities.

Active Wintry Weather Headlines
This was the watches and warnings map from Friday evening, which all the winter storm watches will be upgraded through Saturday. However, note how narrow the winter storm watches are, this is going to reflect where the narrow band of heavier snow will likely occur.

 Snowfall Accumulation Maps
I'm still agreeing with what the weather models have been saying for a couple of days now, with the heaviest staying southeast of the Twin Cities

A Closer Look - NAM
The NAM has been consistently closer to the Twin Cities with some light accumulations, mainly on the southeastern side of the Metro with up to 3" in spots! It's also important to note that this has been the most aggressive model with bringing snow into the Cities since earlier this week.
 
GFS Snow Map
Interestingly, the GFS has lifted a little farther north and brings light snow accumulations into the Twin Cities now. The GFS through the entire forecasting period was always the outlier and has now started falling in line with the others. This makes me more confident in calling for light accumulations in the Twin Cities now that the models are now 'mostly' agreeing on this weekends snow solutions.
 
Snowfall Forecast For The Weekend
I'll go 1" to 3" of snow for the area with the higher end of that scale on the southeast side of town and the lighter amounts on the northwest side of town. I could see 4" to 8" in spots from near Rochester, MN to near Winona, MN

Noon Saturday
Light snow will begin to move into the I-90 corridor by midday

6pm Saturday
Snow will be near its peak intensity around this time through parts of the southeast tip of Minnesota, with light snow in the Twin Cities at this point as well.
12AM - Early Sunday
It's a fast moving system, snow will begin to taper across the region
6AM Sunday
There could still be a few flurries, but the accumulating snow will be over.



Thanks for checking in and send snow reports & pictures my way!
I'll use them in the blog tomorrow.
EMAIL: tnelson@weathernation.net

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Have a great weekend! Todd Nelson

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