Study: Arctic Waters Warmest In 2,000 Years

60" snow so far this winter at KMSP.
4.3" fell Monday in the Twin Cities (up until 7 pm).
16.6" snow for January (3.1" above average).
13" snow on the ground as of Monday evening.
3.1" January of 2010.

2,100 miles: length of the projected area expected to see a foot of more of snow (from Oklahoma to Massachusetts).
105 million: number of Americans estimated to be impacted by a "plowable" snowfall and/or severe ice.

"Upslope". Why are the models all consistently predicting more snow for southwestern Minnesota? The Buffalo Ridge, a slight rise in elevation, is just enough "terrain" to produce enhanced snow. A storm passing south of Minnesota produces an east/northeast wind, which is forced to rise up and over this minor ridge, enhancing upward motion just enough to produce more substantial snowfall totals. Good news for snow-lovers out in Montevideo, Windom and Granite Falls.

Snowfall Subtotals. As of 7 pm a cool foot of snow had piled up at Madelia, 8" Willmar and 6.5" at Benson, with 5" reported at Mankato and nearly 4" at Chanhassen, less over the north metro (3" Andover). Click here to see more.

Snowfall Amounts. No, I don't get paid by the map (wish I did). Here is a NWS map showing accumulations as of Monday evening, with a little 12" bulls-eye down near Madelia.

Super-Storm. Models print out over a foot of snow from Oklahoma City and Tulsa to St. Louis, Chicago, South Bend, Grand Rapids, Detroit, Buffalo, Albany and the greater Boston area (by Thursday). This snowstorm will impact millions of square miles, at least 30 states forecast to see "plowable" amounts of snow in the coming days. For only the second time since 1982 Kansas City is under a Blizzard Warning. Over 600 members of the Missouri National Guard have been called out to assist stranded motorists. No, not the best week for travel around the USA.

The Windy (Snow-Swamped) City. Chicago is about to get belted by heavy snow and wind. Models print out the heaviest amounts (16-20"+) on the sound side, but the Loop may wind up with 12-15", 35 mph winds whipping up 3-5 foot drifts. Stating the obvious: this storm will shut down Midway and O'Hare from today into midday Wednesday.

Aviation Gridlock. I have a bad feeling about air travel, at least from Kansas City to Chicago, Indianapolis and Detroit through midweek. For the latest airport conditions click here for the latest from Flightstat.com.

Blizzard Warnings. I can't remember the last time I saw Blizzard Warnings issued for such a large area of the Midwest and Plains, stretching from Oklahoma City and Tulsa to St. Louis, Chicago/Milwaukee and Madison to South Bend. The latest watches, warnings and advisories for the nation are here, courtesy of NOAA.

America The Storm-Battered. The same area of low pressure that sparked heavy rain for California Sunday is strengthening over east Texas, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, flinging it north, forced to rise up and over a dome of Canadian air over the central Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes, producing that expected swath of 1-2 feet of snow. A secondary low pressure system is forecast to spin up east of Boston, enhancing snowfall amounts over much of interior New England (but sparing New York City this time).

Ice Storm of '11. NOAA is predicting a high probability of 1/4" or more of glaze ice from St. Louis and Indianapolis to Columbus, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia this week, just south of the main band of heavy snow. From Jeff Masters and his (must-read) Wunderblog: "A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow."

A Paralyzing Storm. Believe it or not we are getting the better end of this latest storm - the heaviest snows focused in a long arc hundreds of miles to our south and southeast. Chicago may wind up with close to 20" of snow by Wednesday night, whipping into a blizzard by 30-40 mph. winds. Over a foot is expected from Oklahoma City to Detroit to the Boston area by the end of the week, impacting over 100 million Americans in nearly 30 states. Accumulation prediction courtesy of Baron Services and their "Vipir" Doppler Radar system - which we have at WeatherNation.

From the New York City office of the National Weather Service:
"3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS IN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF WEIGHT PER SQUARE FOOT. NOW IS THE TIME FOR RESIDENTS AND BUILDING OWNERS TO TAKE PREVENTATIVE ACTION TO SAFELY REMOVE SNOW FROM FLAT ROOF TOPS/DECKS ETC." -- NWS Area Discussion

From Consulting Meteorologist Dean DeHarpporte in Eden Prairie:
"This is the first calender month since at least 1997 that the temp has failed to rise above freezing. The highest temp of the month was 32 in the wee hours of Jan. 29th. I only checked back to 1997, so I am not sure when the most recent month of entirely freezing or below weather occurred. This is interesting because the month of Jan. 2011 as a whole has been only about 1.5 deg below the 30-year normal."

Also of interest is that this winter is slightly colder than average, just as last winter was:

Dec. 2009    -1.3 F        Dec. 2010 -2.3 F

Jan. 2010     -0.1 F       Jan. 2011  -1.5 F (approximately)

Feb 2010     -0.4 F        Feb. 2011 ???

"Of course, the NAO has been strongly negative both winters, so strong that you would expect some very low readings, but there have been fewer subzero temps this winter than average as well as last winter. Last winter we had El Nino conditions and this winter La Nina, but the negative NAO apparently overwhelmed the ENSO influence during both winters. The NAO is going neutral now, so maybe we will still have a warm February, though in La Nina years we normally have cold springs."

Cyclone Yasi Bears Down On Queensland. Northeastern Australia is still cleaning up from record flooding in recent weeks - the last they need is a direct strike from a category 4 hurricane. Here's the latest from AOL News: "As the Midwest and East Coast of the United States prepared for the start of a major blizzard, down under, Australians braced for the imminent landfall of Tropical Cyclone Yasi. A massive storm system, Yasi has prompted evacuations along the Queensland coast between Cairns and Lockhart River. Officials said the storm could be the most powerful ever recorded in the state, with winds expected to reach more than 155 miles per hour, and will likely reach land on Wednesday. Approximately 250,000 people live in the area where the storm is likely to hit, news.com.au reported. In addition to the high winds, heavy rains and a major storm surge are expected."

Yasi's Project Path. Cyclone Yasi (same thing as a hurricane) is projected to hit Queensland as a category 4 storm (winds over 131 mph) late Wednesday night, Australia time. Data courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Study Closes Hole In "Hole-Punch" Cloud Theory. Have you ever seen this kind of phenomenon? Pretty amazing. USA Today has an article that explains how these amazing clouds are formed: "Hole punch" clouds, so named for gaps in clouds that appear to be made by a giant hole punch, have fascinated and worried people around the world for decades, leading to speculation about UFOs and other sinister plots. In October 2009, a hole-punch cloud caused a furor in Russia, sparking such headlines as "UFO cloud hovers over Moscow" in the China Daily newspaper. Now a study led by scientist Andrew Heymsfield of the Boulder, Colo.-based National Center for Atmospheric Research found that airplanes taking off or landing are the likely cause of these cloud holes. The airplanes can also cause additional rain or snow to fall after creating the holes. The research determined that precipitation is triggered by water droplets at extremely cold temperatures, below about 5 degrees. As the air is cooled behind the planes, the water droplets freeze and drop toward Earth."

Women And Weather Jobs: The Big Freeze-Out. An article from Broadcasting and Cable that caught my eye: "Forecasting the weather in a market prone to extreme events—including lethal hurricanes, fickle patterns floating in off the mountains and the occasional ice storm—isn’t for those lacking in backbone. It’s even tougher for those who happen to be female. Get the forecast wrong, and you’re just another “weather bunny” who has been put on the air for her winsome appearance, not for her grasp of complicated meteorological conditions and ability to present them in a way that clicks with viewers.  Yet WHNS Greenville’s Kendra Kent persists. Kent is a member of a faction that’s just a little more common than a snowstorm in her South Carolina market—a female chief meteorologist at a TV station in America. Despite impeccable weather credentials, including a master’s degree in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State and official seals of approval from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the National Weather Association, Kent has found that weather-airhead stereotypes die hard. “You’re constantly fighting the ‘weather girl’ stigma,” Kent says. “Whoever came up with that term really jinxed us these last few decades.” Despite the significant strides women have made on television—40% of the U.S. station workforce is female, according to a 2010 Radio Television Digital News Association/Hofstra University study—they remain woefully underrepresented when it comes to the most vital component of local news. The gender percentages in local weather vary slightly, from the 18.5% reported in a 2010 George Mason University/University of Texas study on climate change, to the 21.6% from an RTDNA newsroom survey in 2008. The latter represents a negligible uptick from the 21% female representation in local TV weather found in 2005, and the 19% identified in 1999.  Females at the chief meteorologist level—the skipper of a station’s crew and point person when severe weather approaches—have even poorer representation.... While it’s difficult to quantify, TV station consultants and talent agents estimate that just 10% to 12% of the chief meteorologists at U.S. stations are women."

(For the record: WeatherNation has 3 amazing, certified, degreed on-air meteorologists, Kristin Clark, Susie Martin and Gretchen Mishek).

Is There A "Jetbuster" In Your Future? Specifically, we're talking about the Jetbuster Jetrider XL - it zips along at 25 mph. Kind of makes my waverunner look dated. More from the geeks over at gizmag.com: "Our favorite powered kayak is back with a new name, a new look and an air-suspended seat unit which will come as sweet relief to anyone who's ever suffered the battered buttocks you tend to get from jumping waves in one of the older models. The new Jetrider XL has been unveiled in Dusseldorf, with a joystick-controlled 9.5hp motor, 25mph (40kmh) top speed and the new Airshox seat unit, for a retail price of US $2,999."

Holographic TV. First HD, then 3-D, now Holographic TV? Good grief. I don't think this is coming to your nearest friendly Best Buy store anytime soon, but within 5 years we may be staring (transfixed) at our Internet-enabled, 3-D Holographic Sony TV screens. Yes, it's going to be even harder getting off the couch. Here's an excerpt from an eye-opening (eye-glazing?) article at gizmag.com: "Despite a relatively tepid consumer take-up, the buzz surrounding 3D television is still quite intense. But even the viewing improvements offered by stereoscopic technology may pale by comparison to the holographic goings-on at MIT. Researchers are taking the first steps toward making holographic technology a reality for consumers. Using primarily off-the-shelf components, the team has managed to capture, transmit and display a holographic subject on-the-fly."

Tweeting Snowfall Amounts. Snowed in? Put your time to good use by measuring snow for a worldwide project, as reported by Discover Magazine: "As record levels of snow blanket much of the United States this year, ScienceForCitizens.net is collaborating with an important climate research project at the University of Waterloo called Snow Tweets.  We’re pleased that this is the first of many scientific projects that you’ll be able to do on ScienceforCitizens.net. To help researchers track climate change, we’re requesting that you find a ruler, put on a warm coat, go outside, and measure the depth of snow wherever you happen to be.  And then report the depth to us right here. That’s all there is to it!  You’re simple action will help the planet. Your data will advance climate science, and you’ll get to see your depth report appear on our world map of snow tweets."

Definitely Plowable. 4.3" fell at MSP International Airport in the Twin Cities as of Monday evening, with 3.6" at St. Cloud (as of 7 pm Monday), and 2.5" at Rochester. After waking up to a brisk, bracing -18 International Falls registered a "high" of 3.

 
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Clouds linger, bitter breeze. Wind chill: -25. Winds: N 10-20. High: 9

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and bitter. Low: -6 (feels like -25 to -30 F).

WEDNESDAY: Bright sun, wonderfully numb. Low: -6. High: 7

THURSDAY: Subzero start, fading sun. Low: -8. High: 17

FRIDAY: Milder, PM coating of flakes? Low: 13. High: 31

SATURDAY: "Above average". Few flurries. High: 33

SUNDAY: Lot's of clouds, turning cooler. High: 26

MONDAY: Clouds and flurries, colder again. Low: 3. High: near 10

Good Weather News

Let me attempt to be a beacon of encouragement (for a change). The average temperature has already risen 3 degrees since the second week of January, up to a whopping 22 F. By the end of February the average high is 34; 49F by the last day of March!

On average another 20" of snow SHOULD fall, but the big difference: snows in late February and March tend to melt within a few days - the sun angle too high in the sky to sustain persistent snow cover.

According to meteorologist Dean DeHarpporte in Eden Prairie "January is the first calender month since at least 1997 that temperatures have failed to rise above freezing..there have been fewer subzero temps. this winter than average", he adds. The negative phase of the North American Oscillation that has kept us shivering since early December is weakening - maybe we'll rebound in February. Maybe I'm a naive optimist.

At least you won't be shoveling 1-2 FEET of snow off your roof. That's how much may fall from Tulsa and St. Louis to Chicago & Boston, perhaps the biggest snowfall of winter.

Will Punxetawney Phil see his shadow tomorrow, meaning "6 more weeks of winter"? I'm no rocket scientist, but my strong hunch is...YES.

Help Support The Paul Douglas Foundation. I'm giving a series of presentations on climate change in Minnesota, tornado-chasing and shifts in Minnesota's (increasingly extreme) weather, how even big companies can think entrepreneurially, and some of the amazing trends we're seeing in technology, trying to raise some additional funds for some of the organizations I care about: SAVE (suicide awareness), The Minnesota Medical Foundation, Sharing and Caring Hands and the Boy Scouts. For more information click here.

Study: Arctic Waters Warmest In 2,000 Years. More evidence of major transformations underway in the Arctic region, unusually warm water creating unseasonably mild conditions across northern Canada and Greenland, with a resulting NAO (North American Oscillation), producing a domino effect across the Northern Hemisphere, bitter air which should be near the Arctic Circle displaced south, whipping up an unusual number of extreme snowstorms and bitter outbreaks from America to Europe. An article from USA Today:

"Water flowing into the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic is the warmest it's been in at least 2,000 years, reports a new international study that's bad news for climate change as well as polar bears needing sea ice for survival. Waters of the Fram Strait, which runs between Greenland and the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, have warmed about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 100 years, according to the study published in the Jan. 28 issue of the journal Science. Temperatures are about 2.5 degrees higher than during the Medieval Warm Period, a time of elevated warmth from A.D. 900 to 1300. "Such a warming of the Atlantic water in the Fram Strait is significantly different from all climate variations in the last 2,000 years," study lead author Robert Spielhagen of the Academy of Sciences, Humanities and Literature in Mainz, Germany, said in announcing the findings."

Cooling On Warming? The New Yorker takes a look at President Obama's State of the Union speech and larger strategy issues related to climate change and energy. Here's an excerpt of a Feb. 7 story:
"The day after President Obama delivered his second State of the Union address last week, dozens of Web sites turned it into a “word cloud,” graphically showing the relative frequency with which particular words appeared. One such cloud-seeding Web site was none other than www.whitehouse.gov, where, as a chirpy White House blogger helpfully pointed out, “words like ‘jobs,’ ‘people,’ ‘America’ and ‘new’ show up often. It’s not a scientific measurement, but the visualization gives a sense of the President’s priorities.” Among the words that do not show up in the clouds, or in the text, are “unemployment,” “inequality,” “gun,” “environment,” “Israel,” “Palestine,” and “Guantánamo.” Their absence, which was more art than science, gives a sense of the President’s problems. These were not the most conspicuous omissions, however. “Change” made the cut (five mentions), and so did “global” (one mention, in the phrase “global trade talks”). But “climate” was nowhere to be found. Neither was “warming.”

Wall Street Journal: Selectively Pro-Science. Climate scientist Scott Mandia wrote a post examining articles and editorials run by the Wall Street Journal, which (in his opinion) have slanted the scientific coverage of climate change in recent years. He compares coverage of climate issue with coverage of the science behind vaccines, and a (disproven) link to autism. An excerpt of Professor Mandia's post: “Rigorous scientific studies have not identified links between autism and either thimerosal-containing vaccine or the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine” (Miller and Reynolds, 2009). The scientific community also tells us that the world is round, that smoking is strongly linked to lung cancer, and that humans are causing global warming. Recently, there were multiple editorials and op-eds in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) bemoaning the fact that people have not believed the scientific community on the question of vaccine safety.  Unfortunately, while the WSJ touts accurate science with regard to vaccines, the WSJ is anti-science when it comes to climate change.  Read on for an analysis of the WSJ’s coverage of climate change and to read an excellent Letter to the Editor that was never published. The WSJ has an archive of editorials and op-eds in a category labeled Climate Change that is only available to subscribers.  (Non-subscribers can see a few lines of content for each article but not the entire piece.)  Between October 2008 and January 25, 2011 there were a total of 86 articles in the archive.  I decided to sign up for a one-year subscription ($103) that featured a two-week free trial period....97% of climate science experts and every international scientific organization endorses the conclusion that human activities are primarily responsible for modern global warming.  An honest newspaper should reflect that consensus. Why does the WSJ mis-report climate science 93% of the time? After reading the editorials and op-eds it becomes clear that the WSJ does not like the SOLUTIONS to climate change so they attack, misinform, and ignore the science in the hope of avoiding or delaying dealing with the issue.  A more honest approach would be to accept and explain the science of climate change and then debate how best to mitigate and adapt to climate change.  Why did the WSJ side with science in its autism/vaccine articles and not with climate change science?  The most likely answer is that they were protecting the pharmaceutical industry that profits from producing vaccines and other medicines while also protecting the fossil fuel-based industries that profits from the current carbon status quo."

Top Secret Synthetic Gas Could Eliminate Carbon Emissions. An intriguing article from www.care2.com, which sounds almost too good to be true. But I keep hoping for a garage full of entrepreneurs to achieve breakthroughs that allow us to transition away from pure carbon-based fuels to other alternatives. "A UK company recently revealed the results of a top secret project it's been working on for the past four years: a synthetic fuel that could cause gas prices to plunge to $1.50 per gallon. Developed at the prestigious Rutherford Appleton Laboratory near Oxford, Cella Energy CEO Stephen Voller claims that his company's hydrogen-based fuel produces no carbon emissions when burned, and could be the first step toward a transportation market that's unaffected by unstable oil prices. "We have developed new micro-beads that can be used in an existing gasoline or petrol vehicle to replace oil-based fuels," Voller told Gizmag. "Early indications are that the micro-beads can be used in existing vehicles without engine modification." If Cella Energy is able to produce this gas alternative on a commercial scale, it could be the missing link millions have been waiting for to help ease the pain of transition away from a fossil fuel-based economy."

30 Day Temperature Anomaly. Data from NOAA shows symptoms of not only La Nina, but a negatively phased NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate scientists theorize that unusually warm water in the Arctic regions are being transferred to the atmosphere, resulting in abnormally mild conditions from Hudson Bay to Greenland in recent days, as much as 20 degrees warmer than average.

Climate Change Having An Impact On Alaskan Transportation. From KFQD-AM News Radio and the AP: "The Department of Transportation and Public Facilities' operations chief says Alaska is seeing the impact of climate change on infrastructure. Mike Coffey says state transportation managers expect bigger and more expensive changes if warming trends continue as predicted. He says that's to be expected when 80 percent of the state is permafrost and there are more than 6,600 miles of coastline. Coffey says new challenges include warming permafrost, coastal erosion and the potential for more dramatic storms and flooding. He discussed the impact of climate change on transportation in a webinar hosted by the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks."

3-5" Snow Expected (and why the spring flood threat is so high)

55.7" so far this winter.
26.8" snowfall last winter as of January 30.
Trace of snow Sunday at KMSP.
12.3" snowfall so far in January.
3.1" January snowfall last year.
3,086 heating degree days since December 1 (normal through that period is 2,994). That means we've spent roughly 3% more than average heating our homes and offices since December 1, 2010.

From the Chanhassen office of the National Weather Service:

Commuter Alert. I've said it before - it may be worth repeating. 3-5" of light, powdery snow at 16-18 F. is more dangerous (from the standpoint of fender-benders) than a foot of snow at 28-30 F, when MnDOT chemicals are capable of keeping most freeways wet/slushy. With Monday and Tuesday temperatures in the teens and single digits snow will become quickly compacted into a thin layer of ice. Even though the heaviest snow bands will stay well south of MSP the air temperature is a factor, and I'm expected Hassle Factors in the 4+ range today and Tuesday morning. Leave plenty of extra time to reach your destination.

Blizzard Potential. NOAA has a special (experimental) product capable of predicting blizzard conditions (visibility under 1/4 mile in falling/blowing snow, sustained winds over 35 mph). This graphic, valid around 7 am Wednesday morning, shows near-blizzard conditions from near St. Louis and the Quad Cities to Chicago, South Bend, Detroit and Buffalo.

Storm Track. The models are in pretty good agreement and alignment about this week's (major) storm track. Remember, the heaviest snows usually fall 50-200 miles north/west of the track, putting the epicenter of heaviest snow from Missouri and southern Iowa into Illinois and Michigan.

Monster Storm. This is not going to be just another garden-variety snowstorm. Both the NAM model (above) and the GFS are printing out a huge swatch of extreme snowfall amounts, as much as 10-20" from Kansas City and St. Louis to Chicago, Ann Arbor, Detroit, and (by Thursday) Albany, the northern suburbs of New York City and the Boston area. Ice may down trees and power lines just south of the heavy snow band, with a severe weather outbreak for the south. in short: potentially the most widespread (and potentially damaging) winter storm in at least a decade for the USA. It seems Old Man Winter saved the worst for Ground Hog Day. Yes, we get the message...

3-5-8" Models print out about .40" liquid, which would normally equate to 4" of snow, give or take. But with air temperatures in the teens the snow/rain ratio may be closer to 15/1, so amounts could easily top 6" in the south metro by Tuesday morning, maybe some 8" snowfall totals closer to Mankato and Cannon Falls. Definitely "plowable".

Pick a Model Run - Any Model Run. Throw out the biggest number (5.7") and the lowest number (2") and focus on the mean or median amount - closer to 3-5" by Tuesday morning, which seems a reasonable estimate.

Blizzard Watch For Chicago. The heaviest snow bands should set up a few hundred miles south/east of the Twin Cities. Winter Storm Watches are posted from north Texas across the Midwest, Central Plains Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Frankly, I can't remember a time when so many counties were under watches and warnings. That bright green splotch around Chicago is a Blizzard Watch, which will undoubtedly be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning by Tuesday. Windchill Advisories are posted for northern Minnesota, where a harsh north wind at 15-25 by Tuesday will make it feel like -30 to -40 F. For the last watches, warnings and advisories from NOAA click here.

Temperature Roller Coaster. No sign of a sustained thaw - yet. Next week (second week of February) should start out numbing, maybe 2 nights below zero around the 8th and 9th of February, followed by a brief thaw around Saturday, the 12th. The longer a sustained thaw is pushed out and delayed later in February, the greater the risk of a sudden and sustained thaw capable of rapid snow-melt. This is another reason why meteorologists are increasingly concerned about a risk of widespread river flooding later this spring.

Snow On The Ground Worldwide. Rutgers has a web product that shows snow on the ground around the planet. Click here to see the latest.

The Implications Of Heavy Snow. At the rate we're going (55.7" so far at MSP, 60"+ by Tuesday) we're on track for somewhere between 70-80" for the winter season. Everyone remembers the epic flooding during the spring of 1997, which inundated much of the Red River Valley, producing historic flooding in Fargo/Moorhead. As you can see from the graphic above 72.1" fell at MSP that winter, with considerably more in the Red River basin. I'm not saying that this level of flooding is imminent, but we have most of the conditions necessary for severe flooding: saturated ground from a wet fall, heavy snow (with a water content of 4-7" over parts of western MN). If the thaw is gradual, and we don't experience heavy rains in March, we may be OK, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point. This is why NOAA river forecasters are so concerned, looking out 40-60 days into the future.

Flood Insurance. You might be surprised (even shocked) to discover what is and is not covered by flood insurance. Now would be a good time to check your policy if you live in a flood-prone area. From the MN Dept. of Commerce web site:

Three truths about flood insurance:

1. A standard homeowner's insurance policy does not provide flood coverage.
2. You cannot depend on disaster assistance. You only get assistance when the President declares a disaster. Since less than 50 percent of floods are declared disasters, most flood victims are on their own.
3. Paying for flood insurance is less expensive than paying back a disaster loan. Most disaster aid comes in the form of loans, which must be paid back. The average loan payment on a $50,000 disaster loan is $240 per month ($2,880 per year) for 30 years compared to a $100,000 flood insurance premium which is about $400 per year ($33 per month).

The 7 Biggest Snowstorms Of All Time. The Mother Nature Network (who knew?) has an interesting story about the 7 largest snowfalls ever recorded. Our upcoming 4-6" would be a rounding error compared to some of these previous storms. Here's an excerpt: "A series of major blizzards recently hit the East Coast of the United States. In one, about 20 inches of snow fell in Central Park, 2 feet in Brooklyn, 18 inches in Boston. Some New York City subway riders were trapped in cars for more than 10 hours, and thousands of flights, buses and trains were cancelled. Even the NFL took the unusual (and unpopular) step of postponing a game in the face of the storm. These storms joins a long list of major U.S. blizzards that are as notable for their snowfall totals as they are for their disruptive reach. The biggest blizzards are the ones that shut down entire swaths of the country, the ones that close airports, shutter businesses, and keep the kids at home from school — often for days and weeks on end. Without further adieu, here are the seven biggest U.S. snowstorms in recorded history."

Forecast Calls For A Hot 2011. It's hard to imagine, hip deep in snow with a nagging wind chill blasting you in the face, but at some point the snow will melt, and summer will arrive (probably overnight). Here's a taste of what the U.S. may experience later this year: "Sure, the East Coast has been hit especially hard with snowstorms this winter.  But be prepared.  The weather forecast calls for a hot 2011.  In fact, last year tied for the hottest year on record, the result of a long-term warming trend which will continue, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Whether you chalk it up to global warming or merely write it off as “natural fluctuations” in climate, you cannot deny that the first 10 years of this century were the hottest decade since we started keeping records in the 19th century. WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud commented at a news conference that the organization believes greenhouse gas emissions are to blame: “The main signal is that the warming trend continues and is being strengthened year after year.” “The trend, unfortunately, will continue for a number of years but the amplitude will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released.  It will depend on action taken to minimize the release of greenhouse gases.”

Ah, The Memories. Four days of single-digit highs, seven nights below zero, as cold as -16 back on the 21st, with 12.3" of snow (and counting). We'll probably wind up with closer to 15-16" for January in the Twin Cities, including today's snowfall. I now it SEEMED colder (with all the towering piles of snow everywhere) but, for the entire month - factoring highs and lows, January temperatures are running 1.4 degrees F. colder than average. We've seen worse. To see the data from NOAA and the MN State Climate Office for yourself click here.

Looking Ahead. Hard to believe that February kicks off Tuesday, followed by what SHOULD be a national holiday: Ground Hog Day on Feb. 2. Look at the bright side: the average temperature has already risen 3 degrees since the second week of January (from 19 to 22 F.). By the end of February the average high reaches 29 F. Wow. Average snowfall for February is a modest 8 1/2" (less than January or March because there are 3 fewer days). Look ahead to February (or any month for that matter) and see averages and records here, data courtesy of the MN State Climate Office.

Endless Storms Causing "Snow Rage". Heavy snow + in-your-face New York "nice" = potential trouble, as this story from the local Fox affiliate in New York City uncovers: "Snow plows have been out in full force in Wayne, N.J. since the storm hit. But some people who are digging out claim, some operators are plowing them right back in. It's causing snow plow rage. Nancy Snyder's husband is a public works employee. She says an angry resident attacked him with a bucket of salt. "He sees the red face. He sees the anger in the resident. He sees the swinging bucket. And he even says, 'Roll down that window or I'm going to bust you in the head with it.' And boom," Snyder says. She says the bucket missed her husband but shattered the passenger side window and dented the door of his plow truck. Chuck D'Angelo allegedly threw the bucket. D'Angelo says, "I wasn't happy for my actions for that day. I was really annoyed at him and coming and plowing me straight in."

Prediction. What do you want to bet the groundhog does, in fact, see his shadow Tuesday morning at sunrise? Count on it. If you get a chance, rent "Groundhog Day" with Bill Murray - still one of my favorite flicks of all time.

All-Snow TV. Just imagine the possibilities. An enterprising reporter at the New York Times did just that in a story that dreamed up a perfect prime-time line-up for snow lovers:

MIDNIGHT TO 2 A.M. College hockey: Minnesota-Duluth vs. Alaska-Anchorage.
2 A.M. TO 3 A.M. “CSI Fargo”: State-of-the-art forensic sleuthing indicates something amiss in the mangled head and left forearm sticking out of the wood chipper.
3 A.M. TO 6 A.M. “The Shining.” Movie. Jack’s excellent winter adventure.
6 A.M. TO 7 A.M. “SpongeBob SquarePants”: Tragedy strikes as Bob freezes into a brick while visiting the New England Aquarium in Boston. Final episode.
7 A.M. TO 8 A.M. “Live! With Regis and Kelly”: Kelly bids a nostalgic farewell to Regis by giving the ceremonial push that sets Reege rocketing down the 88-meter vertical drop of the luge run at the Upper Peninsula Luge Club in Negaunee, Mich. Final episode.
8 A.M. TO 9 A.M. “The Suite Life of Zack and Cody”: The cruise ship hits an iceberg and sinks. Final episode.
9 A.M. TO NOON “Dead Snow.” Movie. Medical students stranded in a frozen Norwegian cabin meet chainsaw-wielding Nazis.
NOON TO 1 P.M. “Emeril Live”: Emeril prepares frozen Cajun jambalaya and blackened snowmelt from his outdoor kitchen in Devils Lake, N.D.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Winter Weather Advisory Metro area - Winter Storm Warnings far southern/western suburbs. Snow likely, roads getting worse.  About 3" by evening. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 17

Monday night: Light snow continues - very slippery travel. Low: 9

TUESDAY (Feb. 1): Snow tapers, 3-5" totals, closer to 8" far southern and western suburbs. High: 13

WEDNESDAY (Groundhog Day!) : A Yukon sun, coldest day of the week? Wind chills near -25. Low: -9. High: 5

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still numb. Low: -7. High: 15

FRIDAY: Much better - more clouds, risk of a thaw. Low: 13. High: 32

SATURDAY: Early than, then windy, turning colder with a few flurries. Low: 23. High: 33 (falling by PM hours)

SUNDAY: Few flurries, cooler again, closer to "average" for early February. Low: 22. High: 27

Slow-Motion Snow Event

Just when you thought our winter couldn't get any worse - or impossible for travelers. Lately air travel has become a rigged Lotto game. "Will Old Man Winter roll the dice and allow me to reach my destination?" Odds are (this week) the answer is no. A monster-storm (and I don't use that description lightly) will track across the nation, producing blizzard conditions from Kansas City to Chicago, Detroit and Boston. Some 10-20" amounts are likely, with white-out conditions and impassable roads just to our south.

Minnesota will be on the northern fringe of significant accumulation, but 3-5 inch amounts are possible in the metro - with over 8" south/west of the MSP metro by Tuesday, where Winter Storm Warnings are posted. This will be a "cold snow"; temperatures in the teens making it virtually impossible to keep roads from becoming compacted with snow and ice. Remember, 3-5" at 16 F is more dangerous than a foot at 29 F, when chemicals, salt and sand tend to keep most major roads wet and slushy.

After 2 days of (minor) Siberian pain around midweek a rapid thaw returns: 32 F likely by Friday and Saturday. But for much of America this may be the worst winter storm in 10 years.

A Physicist Explains Why Parallel Universes May Exist. I'm having enough trouble with THIS universe, but if you want to expand (or blow) your mind on a Monday, check out this article from NPR. Here's an excerpt: "Our universe might be really, really big — but finite. Or it might be infinitely big. Both cases, says physicist Brian Greene, are possibilities, but if the latter is true, so is another posit: There are only so many ways matter can arrange itself within that infinite universe. Eventually, matter has to repeat itself and arrange itself in similar ways. So if the universe is infinitely large, it is also home to infinite parallel universes. Does that sound confusing? Try this: Think of the universe like a deck of cards. "Now, if you shuffle that deck, there's just so many orderings that can happen," Greene says. "If you shuffle that deck enough times, the orders will have to repeat. Similarly, with an infinite universe and only a finite number of complexions of matter, the way in which matter arranges itself has to repeat."

Basket Case. India continues to come to grips with some major transformations in temperature and moisture patterns, documented in this article from the Times of India: "The unseasonal rain that has begun to fall on Karnataka every January and February hasn't affected coffee production very much — there's just a 5% dip in yield. But, it's entirely possible there will be discernible change in the quality of the coffee bean... and the coffee that you drink.  Blame global warming? There's more. Assam, which accounts for more than half (52 per cent) of all the tea India produces , last year grew 15 million kg less than the year before. Some of the tea reportedly tasted different — much weaker than the "strong" brew that Assam is famous for.  And then there is Himachal Pradesh's main crop — the apple. The fruit grows on 90,000 hectares across the state but Himachal could lose as much as 25 per cent of that, as low-lying orchards at anywhere between 4,000 and 5,500 ft start to warm up."

Get Used To The Weather... The Sunday Times of South Africa has a report, trying to put recent extremes into perspective. Here is an excerpt: "It's official: the weather is getting weirder. South Africa's top scientists, however, say it is too soon to confirm that global warming is behind the increasing number of droughts and floods - including countrywide floods that have now claimed at least 88 lives in the past six weeks. Floods in eight provinces have caused death and destruction, costing an estimated R2.3-billion, according to the latest report from the Department of Co-operative Governance. Heavy rains continued across much of the country on Friday. Vuyelwa Qinga from the department said damaged infrastructure included schools, roads, water treatment plants, water drainage systems, bridges, electricity poles, telephone lines and churches. By the end of the week, KwaZulu-Natal had reported 47 deaths, said Qinga. New data compiled by the South African Weather Service and released this week to the Sunday Times suggests the regional climate has already changed, becoming warmer and more extreme since detailed temperature and rainfall monitoring began in 1960."

Alaska Seeing Impact Of Climate Change In Its Infrastructure, Villages. The Fairbanks Daily-Miner has a story documenting some of the changes being observed across central Alaska. For Alaskans it's no longer the theory of climate change. It's a reality. "Climate change has already begun to make life difficult for state transportation managers. And they expect it to become a bigger and more expensive challenge if warming trends continue as predicted. “With over 6,600 miles of coastline and 80 percent of the state underlaid by ice-rich permafrost, you can certainly imagine we are at the forefront of climate change impacts,” said Mike Coffey, maintenance and operations chief for the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities.  Coffey discussed the impact of climate change on transportation in a webinar last week, hosted by the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. New challenges include warming permafrost, coastal erosion and the potential for more dramatic storms and flooding, he said. These could lead to more highways and facilities cracking, icing up or even washing away. The hardest-hit areas are northern, western and Interior Alaska, where roads and structures are built over permafrost and near the coast."

This Is Global Warming? Virginia's Sun Chronicle has a story focusing on the disconnect many locals are feeling about weather vs. climate. How can a slowly warming world be producing more frequent and extreme snow storms? An excerpt: "We may be bundled and buried, but scientists say the planet is still getting hotter Whatever happened to global warming? That's the question area residents might ask after last week's sub-zero temperatures and snowstorm - the latest in a series of major storms bringing the winter total for snowfall to 52.5 inches. Yet, scientists say the severe weather does not disprove global warming. In fact, it may be an indicator it is occurring. Virginia Burkett, a senior scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey, said global warming - or climate change - heats up the atmosphere and creates more energy. That results in extreme weather of all kinds, including severe cold, big snowstorms, drought and heavy rain. "It is definitely not an indication that there is not a trend toward global warming," she said. If you look at the earth's temperatures over the past 30 years, there is definitely a trend toward warming, she said. United Nations records show 2010 was tied for the hottest year in recorded history."

 

Is Science Political? Rawstory.com has an interesting clip with HBO host Bill Maher, one that delves into the science. In a perfect world (it ain't) science is apolitical, transcending partisan politics. At least with climate change it hasn't exactly turned out that way. So, back to the question: is science "political"? "That's what one guest on HBO's "Real Time with Bill Maher" claimed Friday, drawing gasps from the studio audience during a discussion about global climate change. "Science is very political," Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) said. "The only science that is 'political' is the science that is funded by oil companies," host Bill Maher replied. "And Democrats," Rep. Kingston then quipped. Moments prior Kingston blasted former vice president Al Gore for his Academy Award-winning documentary about climate change, "An Inconvenient Truth." But the comedian would have nothing of it. "Why isn't it a conservative position to conserve the Earth?" Maher asked to no direct reply. During the program, Kingston, who is a member of a House subcommittee on defense, maintained that the science behind climate change was inconclusive. However, the climate science community unanimously agreed that human industry directly effects the Earth's climate. "It is well established through formal attribution studies that the global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases," the US government's Global Change Research Program reported. [PDF] "Such studies have only recently been used to determine the causes of some changes in extremes at the scale of a continent. Certain aspects of observed increases in temperature extremes have been linked to human influences."