Friday, January 27, 2012

Clippin' Along

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow and light accumulations 1" possible. High: 33. Winds: Turning WNW 10-15

FRIDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers with decreasing clouds and some clearing. Low: 15. Winds: NW 10-15.

SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. High: 27. Winds: W 5-15.

SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Some sun early with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight Low: 8. High: 18.

MONDAY: Clouds thicken, PM drizzle or flurries possible by late afternoon. Low: 11. High: 31.

TUESDAY: Wintry mix changes to snow. Low: 20. High: 34.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering clouds and flurries, still mild. Low: 23. High: 32.

THURSDAY: Another mild day, more PM sun. Low: 22. High: 35


Hockey Rink Roof Collapse
This is unreal and it's unbelievable that nobody got hurt! Heavy snow was a contributing factor to the roof of this hockey rink in Slovakia collapsing. Ex-NHLer Richard Zednik was on the ice just before the collapse.

     Here's an interesting stat, Wednesday's rainfall across parts of Texas (25% of the state still considered in an exceptional drought) had it's heaviest rainfall event (some spots had nearly 10") since Tropical Storm Hermine back in September 2010. Unfortunately, Texas is still so far behind normal precipitation that this was more of a drought denter versus a drought buster.
     We could use a little more substantial moisture up this way as well. The U.S. Drought Monitor has most of Minnesota in a moderate drought and nearly 25% of the state in the severe drought category, which encompasses part of the southern Metro.
     Snow enthusiasts are all too aware of the snow drought this season as we are nearly 17" behind normal. At this time last year, the Twin Cities had seen nearly 56" and were well on our way into record setting territory. We may be in record setting territory again this year, but on the other end of the scale. Our measly 14.4" of snow so far this year is within the top ten lightest snowfall seasons on record, for now... we still have a lot of winter left. A clipper drop through today and kicks out a light snow coating by the afternoon.


Texas' Heavy Rain
Wednesday's heavy rain across parts of Texas was some of the heaviest rain the state has seen since Tropical Storm Hermine back in September of 2010. The heavy rain also brought about a marked rise in lake levels, check it out!
"Area lakes continue to respond to additional inflow of water from creeks and streams following the heavy rainfall earlier this week. Some lakes are up 6 feet and are near and over normal levels. The image is a graphic of 48 hour lake elevation levels. www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd"
 

Texas' Big Drought
Even though some parts of Texas picked up record rains, there is still a long way to go. Again, this event was more of a denter than a buster. Look at the Drought Monitor across Texas, 25% of the state is still in an exceptional drought.
Rain Needed to End Drought
This a glance at how much rain is needed to end the drought or at least get us closer to normal
 

Minnesota's Drought Concerns
Although the drought isn't as bad as Texas', we still have problems of our own. Look at the Drought Monitor for the state of Minnesota, note that most of the state is in a MODERATE drought.
Precipitation Needed to End Minnesota Drought
Again, it isn't quite as bad as Texas', but it sure has been dry out there.

Cold Temperatures in Alaska
Temperatures across Alaska continue to dip into the double digits below zero and are running nearly 17F below average. With several days still left in the month and temperatures expected to drop into the -40s, this could end up being one of the top 5 coldest January's in recorded history at Fairbanks!

NUMBERS SHOW JANUARY 2012 IN FAIRBANKS HAS BEEN FRIGID…
TEMPERATURES IN FAIRBANKS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
IN FACT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 15 TO 17 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS BEEN -24.6 DEGREES WHICH IS 16.7 DEGREES BELOW THE JANUARY AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURE OF -7.9 DEGREES MAKING IT THE 7TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS STILL LEFT IN THE MONTH AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S BELOW…THIS MONTH WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE 5 COLDEST ON RECORD.
THE AVERAGE HIGH SO FAR HAS BEEN -15.5 DEGREES…WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE HIGH OF 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE. THE AVERAGE LOW HAS BEEN -33.6 DEGREES…WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF -16.9 DEGREES. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT THAT MODERATION WILL ONLY PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR JANUARY.

The image below shows some of the coldest temperatures recorded within the last 24 hours

 Concerned Crab and Cod Fishermen in the Bering Sea
This is another problem with the extremely cold air... crab and cod fishermen in the Bering Sea are having a hard time navigating through the massive ice sheets coming down into St. Paul and St. George Islands.

"The NWS Ice Desk's phone has been ringing frequently this week with calls from concerned crab and cod fishermen out in the Bering Sea wondering what's going on with the ice edge. While some of the fishermen may not remember the ice ever coming down this fast, this is only the 4th earliest in our 27 years of records (dating back to 1986) for the ice to arrive at the northern St. Paul Island coast during January.

For a complete report of the early ice edge at the Pribilof Islands see our webpage: (
http://bit.ly/AC32FD).

St. Paul island is currently surrounded by sea ice up to 1 1/2 feet thick, covering 50 to 70% of the water surface. On Friday this ice will continue to increase in concentration to cover over 70% of the water surface.


St. George Island has strips of thinner ice up to 1 foot thick in concentrations of 10 to 30%. Higher concentrations of ice are expected to push in on Friday."
 
 Custom Built Tornado Home Survives Alabama Tornado
This home was built to withstand high winds and it did just that. The tornadoes wasn't able to damage the structure, but it moved the home off of its foundation.
"A couple in Alabama built their home to withstand a hurricane and ended up surviving the tornado that moved through Birmingham on Monday. The house was picked up, moved 20 feet, and set down at a 15 degree angle to where it was."

To Shovel or not to Shovel... That is the Question.
I'd have to say that forecasting clipper systems could be one of the most challenging out of all the winter weather events. It may not be the hardest, but if certainly ranks up there. Why? Take a look at the image below. This is just one models solution to Friday's snow event. Note how skinny the 'heaviest' snow is... not very. Over the course of the last several model runs, I've seen this solution change quite a bit and forecasting a narrow strip 1" to 3" of snow that could shift its track 25 to 50 miles north or south could mean dramatically less or more snow depending on where this thing sails off to. So, with that said, I could see light snow developing tomorrow across the area with light accumulations possible. Some may have to do a little light shoveling, but again, this is not going to be a blockbuster event. This could however slow your afternoon/evening commute down quite a bit, especially if the heaviest snow sails right overhead... Stay tuned!

Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead!
Don't forget to check me out on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV 
-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-

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