71 F. old record set in 1930.
41 F. average high for March 16.
52 F. high temperature a year ago, March 16, 2011.
1.3" snow so far in March at KMSP.
10.4" average March snowfall for the Twin Cities. 1971-2000 data set, courtesy of NOAA.
Coating of snow (2/10ths of an inch) 9 days ago in the metro - low 80s likely this afternoon.
+9.8 F. March temperatures are running nearly 10 F. warmer than average as of Thursday in the Twin Cities.
What's 40 Degrees Among Friends? High temperatures today will run roughly 40 degrees above average. To put that into context, a 20 degree temperature anomaly is fairly significant. +40 F. is off the charts. If the sun is out for a few hours today and Sunday highs should reach, or even top, the 80-degree mark. If we hit 80 it will be the earliest 80-degree high in Twin Cities recorded history. After another record-setting day on Monday (mid 70s) a little rain cools us off Tuesday - you may even need a (light) jacket the latter half of next week. Highs in the 50s? We can handle that.
1486 record highs in the last week across the USA.
808 records for warmest minimum temperatures across the USA in the last 7 days.
577 warm weather records broken, nationwide, on Wednesday. Source: NOAA.
80 Eau Claire
68 Duluth International Airport
A Map Unlike Anything I've Ever Seen. Nearly 3,000 daily weather records in just the last week? Unprecedented, historically. I honestly can't remember a week like this (in March). 1,486 high temperature records, 808 temperatures for warmest nighttime lows. Check out the interactive map from Ham Weather, data courtesy of NOAA.
|Low Max Temp:||126|
|High Min Temp:||808|
EF-3 tornado in Dexter, Michigan - earliest large, violent tornado in Michigan history, dating back to 1950.
Photo credit above: "In the neighborhood of Huron Farms, the hardest hit area of yesterday's tornado in Dexter, Michigan, the home of veteran William Harvey Dusbiber, 87, is cleared, with only the things that are salvageable are being saved for him. The items included Second World War memorabilia and other keepsakes. (Regina H. Boone/Detroit Free Press/MCT)."
Happy St. Patty’s Day!"
"Any American boy can be a basketball star if he grows up, up, up." - Bill Vaughn
Florida: most tornadoes per square mile of any state in the USA from 1950-2010. Details below.
5% of America has an above-average risk of spring flooding this year. Last year the number was closer to 50%. Source: NOAA.
324. The number of consecutive months global temperatures have exceeded the long-term averages. Source: NCDC.
Sunday Severe Outbreak? We have dynamics in place for a significant outbreak of severe T-storms Sunday afternoon and evening from Sioux Falls, South Dakota to Wichita and the panhandle of Texas. I don't think this will rival the March 2 outbreak, but people living in the central Plains will need to stay alert Sunday, as a big storm plaguing the west finally lifts east, enough wind shear and instability for large hail and a handful of possible tornadoes. Map: SPC.
Just Enough Rain To Settle The Dust. We are running a significant 6-month rainfall deficit across much of Minnesota. We need 3-6" to pull out of this drought, but models are printing out .2 to .4" rain from Monday afternoon into Wednesday morning. I could see a few T-storms here Monday PM hours, probably generic rain showers Tuesday, maybe a surge of steadier, stratiform rain as a wave of low pressure ripples up the cool front late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Don't Buck The Trends. It will cool down (slightly) the end of next week, with a few days in the 50s. That's the new definition of a "March Cold Front" I guess. But the GFS bounces the mercury back up into the 60s and 70s around March 25-26, again around the 29th, with a warm spell the last few days of March into early April. Could that really be it for winter? I'm starting to suspect the (cautious/respectful) answer is yes. I know - I don't quite believe it yet either.
Graphic above: This is NOAA's Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, showing a 0 to 20% risk of river flooding for most of the Upper Midwest. Ice jams are triggering some flooding across North Dakota, but that's certainly the exception and not the rule: "Click on a point to view location's Probabilistic River Forecast graphics. Click within a forecast group to zoom to that forecast group. Select a flood category tab to switch categories. From the forecast group view, select the same flood category tab to return to the main image for that category."
Chicago: Does A (Very) Warm March Imply An Extra-Hot Summer? Here's an interesting read, courtesy of the Chicago National Weather Service: "From this table we can see that years with very warm Marches ended up having very warm springs. The spring of 1921 was the second warmest on record. In fact all but 1973 ranked in the top 20 all time. But a similar correlation with warm summers does not exist. Three of the summers following a warm March were above normal and only 2 were much above normal. Summer of 1921 was the 3rd warmest on record. But 2 of the summers were near normal and 2 were below normal. We can also look at the number of days of 90 degree weather. Three of the years had an excessive number of 90 degree days, 3 had less than the normal number of 90 degree days, and one was close to normal."
* Put a family communication plan in place and prepare an emergency supply kit, including a battery-powered NOAA Weather radio.
* Remove dead trees and branches that could fall on your property or home.
* Repair roof leaks, clear clogged gutters and fix broken or loose doors and windows.
Before the Storm Hits
* Postpone outdoor activities and secure outdoor objects that could become airborne.
* Seek shelter in a home, building or hard top automobile. The steel frame of a vehicle – not the rubber tires – can help protect you from a lightning strike if you avoid touching metal or other conductive surfaces.
* Close shutters, if available, and secure outside doors. Close window blinds, shades or curtains. Unplug electronic equipment, including appliances, air conditioners and computers.
During the Storm – In Your Home
* Don't use corded phones or any appliances that are "plugged in." Use cell or cordless phones instead.
* Avoid contact with plumbing. Don't wash your hands, take a shower, or do dishes or laundry. Minimize contact with bathroom fixtures.
Graphic credit above: "
- Get rid of road salt on the undercarriage. Road salt can damage your vehicle by eating away at its undercarriage. Use a garden hose with as much water pressure as your system can have to loosen winter grime and salt.
- Check the tires. Believe it or not, tire pressure changes up to a pound per square inch for every 10 degrees in temperature change outdoors. Underinflation allows your tires to wear unevenly on the sides. Plus your gas mileage will suffer.
- Change your wiper blades. How much abuse have your wipers taken this winter? Battered by snow, sleet and wind…Spring typically brings with it a lot of rain, so you will most likely need to use them in the next few months
"There is no surprise more magical than the surprise of being loved. It is God's finger on man's shoulder." - Charles Morgan
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Welcome to July
"Dear David Cameron,
As entrepreneurs, investors, economists, scientists, engineers, energy providers, community builders and Members of Parliament, we are increasingly concerned about the lack of clarity around the future of government support for land based renewables, such as solar, wind and biogas. In wind alone, the UK has more than 40% of Europe's renewable energy resources - enough to power up our economy 3 to 4 times over, generate exports, and provide the tools for communities and entrepreneurs to do their job. Bringing energy supply and demand together, a decentralised energy market can make real efficiencies in costs associated with our antiquated infrastructure and transmission loss, deliver savings for tax payers and provide frustrated investors with new opportunities."
* photo above courtesy of Wikipedia.
Global Warming: Pine Beetles Thriving At Higher Elevations. This is a growing concern: if we don't see bitter cold (usually -40 F. is the threshhold) pine beetles and other pests can survive the winter, eating up far more trees, especially pines). The Summit County Citizens Voice has more details: "SUMMIT COUNTY — In one of the clearest signs yet that global warming is having a direct impact on the environment and economy of the Colorado high country, a trio of University of Colorado researchers say they’ve shown that mountain pine beetles have responded to climate change by speeding up their breeding cycle. Because of the extra annual generation of beetles, there could be up to 60 times as many beetles attacking trees in any given year, their study found. And in response to warmer temperatures at high elevations, pine beetles also are better able to survive and attack trees that haven’t previously developed defenses. That puts other high-elevation pine species, including limber, whitebark and even the iconic bristlecone pines at risk, according to CU graduate student Scott Ferrenberg, who launched the high elevation pine beetle study."
Inhofe On The 97% Of Climate Scientists Who Agree Global Warming Is Real: "That Doesn't Mean Anything". Think Progress has the baffling details: "Faced with global warming facts on the Rachel Maddow show last night, Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) countered, “It’s not true.” Maddow asked him to react to the 97 percent of scientists who agree that global warming is real. Although Inhofe was eager to point to anecdotal evidence for his conspiracy theories, he simply replied:
"That isn’t true Rachel. You say something over and over again and your audience, particularly your liberal audience, they want to believe it [...] This 97 percent, that doesn’t mean anything. I’ve named literally thousands of scientists on the floor."As a prominent climate denier and Big Oil favorite, Inhofe’s ignored the scientific evidence throughout the interview. But he’s not known for relying on scientific research — recently, he quoted the Bible as proof."