62 F. average high for April 23.
48 F. high temperature a year ago, April 23, 2011.
22.3" snow fell this past winter season in the Twin Cities.
86.6" snow had fallen last winter, as of April 23, 2011
1928: last time there was a bigger snowstorm so late in the season. As much as 4-10" snow smothered the higher terrain of West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and far western New York State.
Upper Left Photo credit above: "Bob Bower, of Beckley, cleans snow off vehicles at Carriage Car Company on Harper Road in Beckley, W.Va., Monday, April 23, 2012. (AP Photo/The Register-Herald, Rick Barbero)."
Upper Right Photo credit above: "Snow covers Kemp drive in Frostburg, Md. on Monday, April 23, 2012. A nor'easter packing soaking rain and springtime snow churned up the Northeast on Monday, unleashing a burst of winter, closing some schools and triggering power outages in communities that were basking in record warmth a month ago. (AP Photo/The Times-News, Ken Nolan)."
Dueling Weather Models:
Blowing Warm And Cool. The (American) models hint at 70 today, possibly mid 70s Wednesday before an inevitable temperature tumble starting Thursday. Models hint at a slight chance of a light frost early Sunday (if skies clear and winds ease). No, it's still too early to plant annuals - wait until after Mother's Day to be sure.
ECMWF Solution. Although not as mild for Wednesday, the European model (often more reliable beyond 48 hours) shows a similar cool-down by Thursday and Friday, highs holding in the 40s Saturday with a cold rain, but a very salvageable Sunday - highs in the mid 50s. We should see 60s again next week. Our on-again, off-again spring continues to limp on...
Rainfall Amounts From Recent Nor'Easter:
- HARTFORD/BRADLEY INTL ARPT 2.67
- NEW HAVEN
- DANBURY MINI ARPT 2.43
- WILLIMANTIC/WINDHAM ARPT 2.34
- GROTON/NEW LONDON 2.31
- MERIDEN/MARKHAM MUNI ARPT 1.82
- WILMINGTON ARPT 1.97
- DOVER AFB
- GEORGETOWN/SUSSEX CO. ARPT 1.67
- NORWOOD MEMORIAL ARPT 2.63
- BEVERLY MUNI ARPT 2.54
- WESTFIELD/BARNES MUNI ARPT 2.50
- WORCESTER MUNI ARPT 2.50
- EAST MILTON
- LAWRENCE MUNI ARPT 2.41
- TAUNTON MUNI ARPT 2.29
- NEW BEDFORD MUNI ARPT 2.23
- WESTOVER AFB/SPRINGFIELD 2.02
- PATUXENT RIVER NAS 2.49
- SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 1.90
- OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 1.65
- BIDDEFORD 3.5 SE 3.65
- SACO 2.2 SE 2.90
- WELLS 3.5 SW 2.87
- PORTLAND INTL JET 2.86
- WESTPORT ISLAND 2.9 NE 2.36
- ROUND POND 0.7 SSW 2.35
- AUBURN 2.5 NNE 2.30
- AUBURN-LEWISTON MUNI ARPT 2.08
- AUGUSTA STATE ARPT 1.77
- HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 3.18
- NEW BOSTON 2.4 S 5.04
- GREENLAND 1.5 SSE 3.00
- RANDOLPH 1.4 NE 2.83
- PEASE AFB/PORTSMOUTH
- NASHUA/BOIRE FIELD 2.22
- ROCHESTER/SKYHAVEN ARPT 1.78
- JAFFREY MUNI ARPT 1.75
- WEST PATERSON
- CALDWELL/ESSEX CO. ARPT 2.27
- WILDWOOD/CAPE MAY CO. ARPT 2.27
- TRENTON/MERCER CO. ARPT 2.14
- MOUNT HOLLY
- MCGUIRE AFB/WRIGHTSTOWN 2.02
- ANDOVER/AEROFLEX ARPT 1.95
- SCHENECTADY 5.6 SSW 3.76
- ALTAMONT 2.7 SSW 3.74
- MIDDLE ISLAND 0.8 ESE 3.32
- FREEHOLD 3.4 E 3.30
- HOPEWELL JUNCTION 2.4 SSE 3.14
- SHIRLEY/BROOKHAVEN ARPT 3.13
- MONTAUK AIRPORT 2.91
- CENTRAL PARK 2.76
- NEW YORK/JFK
- POTTSTOWN LIMERICK ARPT 2.28
- DOYLESTOWN ARPT 2.08
- PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 1.97
- WESTERLY STATE ARPT 2.48
- NORFOLK INTL ARPT 2.25
- FORT EUSTIS/FELKER
- LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON 1.83
La Nina Fading; Likely Gone By End Of April. The cyclical cooling phase of equatorial Pacific Ocean water is returning to normal. It still baffles me that, in spite of a cool/La Nina phase, the lower 48 states experienced the 4th warmest winter on record. How is that possible? Remember the dire warnings last October: "Much colder/snowier over the northern tier states". Right. It just goes to show you how much trust you should put into a 3-6 month forecast. NOAA's ClimateWatch division has the details: "Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean swing back and forth every few years (sometimes more) like an irregular pendulum. The warm phase is known as El Niño; the cool phase—which it has been in for the past two winters—is called La Niña. According to NOAA’s April 2012 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, La Niña is fading and will likely be over by the end of April. The pair of maps shows the difference from average temperature in the tropical Pacific near the winter peak of the La Niña event on January 12 and on April 15. Places where the ocean was up to 5 degrees Celsius colder than the 1981-2010 average are dark blue, average temperatures are white, and places where temperatures were up to 5 degrees C warmer than average are red."
69,985 warm weather records during the last year, nationwide. Source: NOAA NCDC.
19,195 cold weather records during the last 365 days.
Two Rain Opportunities. An atmospheric tug-of-war plays out overhead late tonight and Wednesday, sparking a few rounds of showers and (heavy) T-storms. Another southern storm may drop another .5" rain late Friday into Saturday. Right now Sunday looks like the nicer, drier day of the weekend. Yep, already focused like a laser on the upcoming weekend.
GFS Extended Outlook: Unsettled, But Looking More Like (Late) Spring. The GFS solution valid May 9 shows a "cut-off" low over the Dakotas, sparking another round of showers and T-storms the second week of May. In general the core of the jet stream is lifting north, which should mean more numerous 70s, even a few 80s by mid-May.
May: Spring Stages A Comeback. Yes, we've had a few "correction", coming on the heels of jaw-dropping March warmth east of the Rockies. At least it didn't snow. The GFS shows 60s and 70s after May 2. We're due for a spell of shorts and T-shirts.
11 years of the 21st century have been among the warmest 13 years on record, according to NOAA.
395 parts per million: concentration of carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere.
280 parts per million: estimates of CO2 concentrations before the Industrial Revolution, in the last 19th century.
Deadliest Hurricanes In U.S. History. Vickie Frantz from AccuWeather has an interesting story; here's an excerpt: "The top five deadliest hurricanes to impact the U.S. claimed the lives of about 15,200 people and impacted the states of Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and Texas.
Galveston was impacted by a hurricane that made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Sept. 8, 1900. Winds were estimated to be in excess of 140 mph. The storm surge reached 15.7 feet, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)."
Photo credit above: " "
Illustration above: Kenneth Carter, al.com.
This kind of resilience requires planning, foresight and careful attention to a host of issues including the role of our natural environment in minimizing flood damage.Everything on the Vermont landscape is connected. Every action we take on the land and in the rivers has a reaction."
Sierra Fireball Decoded. SpaceWeather.com has more information about the spectacular (minivan-size) meteorite that exploded high above California Sunday, releasing energy estimated at 3.8 kilotons: "On Sunday morning, April 22nd, just as the Lyrid meteor shower was dying down, a spectacular fireball exploded over California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. The loud explosion rattled homes from central California to Reno, Nevada, and beyond. According to Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office, the source of the blast was a meteoroid about the size of a minivan."
How To Delete Yourself From The Internet. Here's a fascinating (if not frustrating) story from CNET and Yahoo: "The Internet companies that power your online life know that data equals money, and they're becoming bolder about using that data to track you. If they get their way, your every online step would be not only irrevocable, but traceable back to you. Fortunately, there are some positive steps you can take to reclaim your online history for yourself. The online privacy software company Abine, which makes Do Not Track Plus, also offers a service called DeleteMe, which removes your data from numerous tracking sites and keeps it from coming back. In an unusual gesture, though, they've made public how to do for yourself everything that DeleteMe does. Here's my take on their advice. Be warned, though. The following are not easy instructions, and it's not because they're technically complex."
* more (pure) speculation on the upcoming (October?) release of the iPhone 5 from eWeek.com.
* photo above courtesy of cultofmac.com, which has even more speculation about the iPhone 5.
"T-Rex Trying To Turn Off Ceiling Fan" "T-Rex Trying To Flip A Pancake..."
Check out the complete collection from T-Rex Trying (soon to be a book). You can even buy a T-Rex T-short. No I get no commission - just thought this was worth sharing. I appreciated the chuckle...
A Perfect Spring Day. Yes, late April the way it was probably meant to be in Minnesota: extraordinary. Under a mostly-blue sky highs ranged from 53 at Grand Marais to 65 in the Twin Cities, 67 St. Cloud and 70 at Redwood Falls.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and comfortably cool. Low: 45
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase - growing chance of T-storms. Low: 56
* A slow warming trend is likely next week, more 60s the latter half of the week.
Photo credit above: "A boy leaping from a sand dune, Cape Cod, U.S. Photograph by National Geographic" - courtesy of Bloomberg Businessweek.
Photo credit above: "A farmer in Ines Indart, Argentina. Photographer: Diego Giudice/Bloomberg."
Photo credit above: "Mark McReynolds, Assistant Professor of Environmental Science at Biola University."
1. Moving the military northward
"As the Arctic ice opens up, the world turns its attention to the resources below. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 30 percent of the world's undiscovered natural gas and 13 percent of its undiscovered oil are under this region. As a result, military action in the Arctic is heating up, with the United States, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Sweden and Canada holding talks about regional security and border issues. Several nations, including the U.S., are also drilling troops in the far north, preparing for increased border patrol and disaster response efforts in a busier Arctic."
Image credit above: "This composite image uses a number of swaths of the Earth's surface taken on January 4, 2012. Credit: NASA/NOAA/GSFC/Suomi NPP/VIIRS/Norman Kuring."
* note: the article above refers to "16 scientists in the WSJ" - it should be pointed out that only one of these skeptics was a published, peer-reviewed climate scientist (Richard Lindzen), who's theories about the (non man-made) origins of AGW have have been refuted by the 98% of climate scientists who see a link with greenhouse gas emissions. The recent NASA astronauts who stepped forward to scold their NASA colleagues for acknowledging the science: not one had any climate credentials. It would be a little like me writing a scathing article about using stents in heart transplantation surgery. It's totally out of my area of expertise and (real) experts/cardiologists would be very quick to point that out. Again, anyone is welcome to their opinion - but you're not free to make up your own scientific facts.
Image credit above: "A NASA map shows global temperature anomalies in March 2012."