57 F. average high for April 13.
62 F. high a year ago; on April 13, 2011.
.05" rain fell Friday at KMSP.
.45" additional rain predicted by Sunday night in the Twin Cities (00z NAM model).
32 F. predicted 2 meter temperature Monday morning at 7am in the Twin Cities (potential for flurries). Ugh.
Temperature Trend: "E-Ride At DisneyWorld". Good grief - no wonder we're all slightly neurotic. If there's any sun today (likely) we should see mid-70s. Same story Sunday, with a better chance of a few strong to severe T-storms. And then we fall over a temperature cliff, waking up to 32-33 Monday morning with a risk of flurries. Then temperatures rebound above 60 by midweek. A dizzying temperature roller coaster ride. More details below.
1,400. Average number of tornadoes every year across America. Fewer than 1% will reach EF-4 or EF-5 strength.
13 minutes. Average lead time for a tornado in the USA (time from when a warning is issued until arrival).
6-7 minutes. Average lead time in 1975.
+2.5 F. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were 2.5F warmer than average in March, the mildest ever observed. Meteorologists are concerned that this added warmth and moisture over the Gulf may be a factor in what is turning into an especially severe tornado season across the USA. Details below.
* photo above of the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak courtesy of NOAA. Details from Wikipedia.
April 7, 2006
EF-3 tornadoes: 2
EF-2 tornadoes: 5
EF-1 tornadaoes: 25
EF-0 tornadoes: 41
Major Population Centers In Or Near High Threat Area:
Map credit above: "Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year. Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak."
Minnesota Severe Threat. The greatest risk of severe storms (large hail, damaging straight-line winds and even an isolated tornado or two) will come over southern Minnesota later today, far southeastern Minnesota Sunday PM hours. Source: MSP National Weather Service office.
Raw Numbers: Sunday Looks Like The Noisier Day. The atmosphere may be stable enough today (lifted indices around +3 to +5) for intervals of sun, low to mid 70s - probably thunder-free until tonight. Early Sunday could be lively though, CAPE over 1,000, lifted indices drop to -8 (anything under 0 is "unstable") with a Total Totals of 57 at 7am Sunday morning. Check out the 2 meter temperature Monday morning at 7am: 32 F. Good grief. A coating of slush can't be ruled out, especially over the northern suburbs, Monday morning. Have a super day!
Projected Rainfall. The NWS is predicting over 1" of rain by Sunday night, which is possible, especially far southern Minnesota. Here in the metro I'm leaning more toward .4 or .5".
Statewide Rainfall Predictions. Heavier rain is predicted by the NAM model north/west of MSP, as much as 1.5" forecast near Alexandria and Brainerd, with 2" amounts near Detroit Lakes. We'll see - hope the model is right.
A Touch Of ....Snow? The latest NAM model (00z) prints out some 2-5" snowfall amounts from east of Eau Claire to Rhinelander, Wisconsin, maybe a coating of slush between MSP and Duluth. There's a good chance we'll wake up to flurries Monday morning - but with warm ground temperatures nothing will stick. I pray.
Mostly-Mild Last Week Of April. The GFS pulls the mercury into the 60s and 60s from April 22 to April 28, followed by one more risk of frost around April 28-29. We'll see.
Location; Precipitation Total; Departure from Normal; Historical Rank
Lamberton; 5.35 inches; -7.51 inches; Driest of record
Winnebago; 8.03 inches; -7.17 inches; Driest of record
Marshall; 4.66 inches; -8.69 inches; 2nd Driest
Granite Falls; 4.89 inches; -7.82 inches; 3rd Driest
Photo credit above: "Thai residents wade through floodwaters in Bangkok, Thailand, in this October 2011 file photo. Altaf Qadri/AP/File."
Definition of "Drab". Yes, it was a lousy Friday the 13th, weatherwise. Under a leaky sky highs ranged from 50 at Grand Marais to 53 St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 58 Redwood Falls and 60 at International Falls. Redwood Falls gets the Golden Rain Gauge Award, with .41" of rain.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
* more from NASA Watch here.
Photo credit above: "WATERY CULPRIT: Seagulls standing on an iceberg in a fjord, near Ilulissat in Greenland, in 2007. The Greenland ice sheet is likely the source of rising waters in the Pacific Ocean. (Photo: Michael Kappeler/AFP)."