71 F. average high for May 22.
69 F. high temperature a year ago, on May 22, 2011.
Severe storms possible later today; expect watches and a few warnings close to home.
2.34" rain predicted for the metro area by Thursday evening (00z NAM model). Yes, the drought is pretty much over.
90 F. high temperature still possible Sunday afternoon, if the sun comes out (likely). Sunday still looks like the sunniest, warmest, driest day of the holiday weekend; probably the best day for the lake.
70 F. dew point possible on Sunday. Neighbors will be whining about the humidity by Sunday afternoon. Count on it.
85-90 F. degree highs possible Memorial Day with a few T-storms, best chance late afternoon. Not a total wash-out.
10% of the world's species have disappeared in just the last century. Details in a Huffington Post article below.
* more details on the record rains and subsequent flooding from nbcmiami.com.
"There are three things that stand out:
a). Some storms take their time to intensify and produce a tornado, while others ramp up rapidly and produce a tornado very quickly. This was one of those rapidly developing situations. It was a low-topped supercell that had little indication just ten minutes prior that it was going to produce a tornado. It became a possibility only a few minutes before touchdown. The decision to warn was made at 2:08 pm or 2:09 pm, and we got the warning out at 2:10 pm and heard about the touchdowns at 2:15 pm. It would be nice if tornadoes always gave 30 minutes notice, and some storms do, but other develop extremely quickly, in which case it's hard to get a warning out more than a few minutes beforehand.
b). The great value of SKYWARN. A HAM radio operator was at one of the large stores just south of I-394 and Park Place, looking to his east, saw a funnel with debris underneath, and reported it via HAM radio. This was our first report at about 2:13 pm. Having a confirmed tornado gave important credence to our tornado warning. Once we heard the report, we notified law enforcement right away and then broadcast meteorologists immediately thereafter. We had many great reports relayed to us as the tornado continued on its path.
c). As bad as it was, and even though this tornado was a killer (and we especially remember the family of the man who perished), it could have been so much worse. When I look at the pictures from the security footage of a couple of video cameras, the cloud base was low, the tornado wide, and I'm amazed the winds were not stronger than EF-1."
"Mark Seeley noted that annual precipitation in parts of south central and southeast Minnesota has increased up to 15 percent in recent years; normal annual rainfall for the Twin Cities is 4.25" greater than it was in the 1980s. Statwide, Minnesota's average rainfall topped 34 inches in 2011 for the first time in 121 years of record-keeping. The Upper Midwest saw a 31% increase in "intense" rainfalls - the statistical 1 percent events - from 1858 to 2007, over previous decades, according to the National Climactic Data Center.
Yet we continue to read how we are in a drought.
Is this because of the distribution of the precipitation over the year? Or some other technical reason?"
Photo credit above: National Weather Service.
Photo credit above: "A police officer walks through a devastated neighborhood in southeast Windor after a tornado struck that community May 22, 2008". LCL:STF.
Graphic above courtesy of NOAA, which has more information on the GOES-R satellite system here.
Photo credit: Herbert Stein, 2009.
Photo credit above: "This rainstorm in Eastern New Mexico, as part of the North American Monsoon, gets moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California during the late summer. Scientists have found that desert dust increases the monsoon effect in this region." Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Today's forecast highs (above) courtesy of NOAA and Ham Weather.
Photo credit above: MARTIN KIDSTON/The Billings Gazette. "Fire crews with the Shoshone National Forest make improvements to the Blackwater National Recreation Trail ahead of this summer’s 75th anniversary of the deadly 1937 Blackwater fire."
Alberto Provides An Early Reminder. Here's some timely advice for residents of "Hurricane Alley" from Jacksonville's jdnews.com: "...Although there’s nothing anyone can do to stop a hurricane from forming or influence its path, there’s plenty that those who live in its possible path can do to mitigate its potential for disruption. We should all stock up on the things we need to be prepared for the arrival of a hurricane on our shores — from gallons of water to a battery-operated radio to nonperishable foods. We should have an evacuation plan and watch for orders telling us it’s time to get out, and then do as we’re told. We should prepare our homes, businesses and other properties for a hurricane’s arrival by removing items that can turn into projectiles when heavy winds hit. And we should remember to think ahead where our pets and those who are less capable of helping themselves, such as the elderly, are concerned."
Satellite image above courtesy of NASA's Earth Observatory.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Photo credit above: flickr/Jon Sullivan
Photo credit above: "In this Oct. 27, 2011 file photo, the last light of the day sets on Mt. Everest as it rises behind Mount Nuptse as seen from Tengboche, in the Himalaya's Khumbu region, Nepal. Mountaineering Department official Gyandendra Shrestha said Monday, May 21, 2012, that a German, a Nepal-born Canadian and a Korean died Saturday while descending from the 8,850-meter (29,035) summit." AP Photo/Kevin Frayer, File.