79 F. average high for September 16.
80 F. high last year, on June 16, 2011.
.31" rain fell Saturday morning at KMSP.
Tornado risk greatest over southwestern Minnesota this evening - a MODERATE RISK from SPC implies a potential for a few large, violent, long-lasting tornadoes.
.77" additional rain predicted for the Twin Cities by Wednesday morning (00z NAM model).
5" ECMWF (European) predicting for rainfall total for the Twin Cities by Wednesday. Place your bets.
90-95 F. high temperatures expected Monday, 90+ again Tuesday.
70+ dew points possible in the metro by Tuesday.
June 17, 2010: NOAA reports "The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurred with 48 tornadoes across the state, and set the stage for a record breaking tornado year that finished with 113 tornadoes statewide. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota on this day. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest number since July 5, 1978." It's more than a little ironic that another significant tornado outbreak is possible later today, two years later to the day.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON IN ERN SD SHOW MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY REACHING 50 TO 55 KT BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF ABERDEEN AT 00Z/MON SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 700 METERS SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENT...A LINE OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE ACROSS SRN MN WITH DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE STRONG SHEAR AND WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP THE TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE LINE COULD MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN IA BY LATE IN THE EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MCS MAINLY DUE TO WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS.
Photo credit above: "Residents of Cannon Falls, MInn. survey the damage to Minnieska Park and a swollen Cannon River in Cannon Falls, Minn. Friday morning June 15, 2012 following over night rains that dumped over 8 inches of rain on the area causing many area rivers to overflow their banks. (AP Photo/The Rochester Post-Bulletin, Jerry Olson)."
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Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
FATHER'S DAY: Sunny, breezy, less humid. Tornadic storms possible over southwestern Minnesota by evening. Dew point: 55. Winds: S 10-15. High: 85
SUNDAY NIGHT: Dry evening, T-storms late, locally heavy rain. Low: 68
* extended models hinting at a partly sunny Sunday, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, slight chance of T-storms, mainly far western and southwestern Minnesota.
Tornado Threat Later Today