Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Tornado Watch until 1 am (includes north metro, all of central MN)



Tornado Watch Until 1 am Wednesday. A watch means "watch out", stay alert, keep an eye on the sky, and stay tuned to local media, make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is turned on, and be ready to head to the basement (or an interior "safe room") if skies turn threatening. SPC has issued this watch until 1 am tomorrow. It includes the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Alexandria, but people living near Brainerd and the Twin Cities should not be complacent. If you live close to a watch box, within 50-75 miles, you may be impacted too.


   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   610 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL MINNESOTA
          NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
          NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF WATERTOWN
   SOUTH DAKOTA TO 125 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD
   MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...
   
   DISCUSSION...INTENSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS IN A ENEWD FASHION FROM A
   SFC LOW IN ERN SD...ACROSS CNTRL MN...AND INTO NRN WI. A VERY
   MOIST...UNSTABLE AND CURRENTLY CAPPED AIR MASS EXISTS NEAR THE SFC
   LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT. E TO ENE SFC WINDS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
   VEER STRONGLY TO SLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE SWLY AT MID
   LEVELS RESULTING IN VOLATILE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500
   M2/S2 AND PRONOUNCED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LFC IS ALSO LOCALLY LOW NEAR THE FRONT
   AND SUPPORTIVE OF STORM UPDRAFTS INITIATING NEARER THE SFC. THERE IS
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...REGARDING SFC-BASED STORM
   INITIATION IN SUCH A STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY
   AND STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IN THE FORM OF AN
   APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...WHEN COMBINED
   WITH SUCH A SUPPORTIVE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF THE TORNADO WATCH ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT THIS EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
   

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