73 F. peak dew point yesterday in the cities.
57 F. predicted dew point by 7 am Friday morning.
24 days at or above 90 F. so far in 2012.
83 F. average high for July 25.
89 F. high on July 25, 2011.
+7.4 F. The first 24 days of July averaged 7.4 F. warmer than average in the metro area.
4.38" rain so far in July at KMSP, 1.16" wetter than average, to date.
.08" rain forecast late this afternoon and evening from instability showers, possible thunder. Dry weather prevails Friday, probably Saturday as well.
Trending (Slightly) Cooler. You'll notice a welcome dip in temperature and dew point today into Saturday morning, but the ECMWF model brings more 90s into town the first half of next week - followed by a much more significant puff of Canadian air by next Friday (highs in the low 70s?) Yes, that would be nice.
Predicted Heat Index Next Monday. The worst of the heat and humidity is forecast to shift into the southern Plains and Mid South by early next week - heat indices near 110 from Oklahoma City to Little Rock and Montgomery, Alabama. Source: NOAA.
150 gigatons of ice loss observed every year in Greenland in recent decades. NASA, via PBS Newshour.
"Scientists estimate that if all of Greenland's ice sheet were to melt, the global sea level would rise by 23 feet (7 meters). "To be perfectly clear, that is not what we're seeing," Mote said. "Greenland is losing mass, but it would take a very long time to lose all of that mass." - excerpt from a National Geographic article below.
Map credit above: "High temperature forecast for Tuesday, July 24, showing the area of extreme heat in the central states. Click on the image for a larger version." Credit: NOAA.
Photo credit above: "It’s kind of a crap shoot, and it’s part of farming,” said Keith Greshik, a grain farmer near Cochrane, Wis. “You don’t get to do well every year.”
Drought-Denting Rains? The 5-Day NOAA HPC rainfall prediction prints out some 3" amounts over Iowa, providing some potential (minor) relief for portions of the Corn Belt. But little rain is predicted for the Great Plains. Some 2-4" amounts are expected over New England by next Tuesday.
Graphic credit above: "A comparison between Lake Superior's average water temperature this year so far and the longer-term average. Click on the image for a larger version." Credit: GLERL.
Photo credit above: The Los Angeles Times.
London Outlook. Here's one more prediction: raw ECMWF model data for London through the end of next week, showing highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, a few weekend showers, maybe some heavier rain by the end of next week.
"The Strib shows that precipitation is 6.86" above average for the year and 1.29" above average for the month in the Twin Cities (airport?). How do you define a drought? Thanks."
All weather, like politics, is local, right? "Paul said there was a drought, but we've seen plenty of rain at my house." The metro has seen considerably more rain than far southern and western counties, the corn and bean belt, where farmers are very worried about drought conditions. Even though most of our readers live in or near the Twin Cities, I try very hard to keep a Minnesota-centric view in the blog, and that means including information that's relevant to people from Rochester and Mankato to Brainerd, Duluth and Moorhead. No small task.
* Drought Monitor map above can be viewed here. The latest Drought Monitor is due by Friday - based on recent rains I expect some improvement in the drought, especially over southern Minnesota.
"Why do you and 75% of the population in the Midwest complain so much about the heat, and "look for the light at the end of the tunnel" for this heat to end? We will have a lot of months where it will simply be cold with no chance of it being even lukewarm. It seems most people here in Minnesota aren't happy when it's cold or hot, so those people are happy about 4 days out of the 365 day year. Living here my entire life I have learned to embrace both extremes My favorite weather is 90 and humid, and my second favorite is 25 with snow falling from the sky.
Embrace the heat! It loosens up all those tight muscles."
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
1) Droughts can be complex, with many different causes. A drought occurs when a region stays abnormally dry for a long enough period to cause an imbalance in the water cycle. There are three ways this can happen. Less rain could fall on the region. The evaporation of moisture from soil could speed up, either because of hotter temperatures or wind shifts. Or there could be less water to begin with — say, because there was less snowfall the previous winter. Or a combination of these three things. That makes drought tougher to model than, say, heat waves."