Paul Douglas Weather Column: End of the Week Thunder Threat

Isaac's storm?

By Paul Douglas

Mother Nature has a wicked sense of humor, but in the end, who can blame her? 15,000 reporters, bloggers, tweeters & bloviating talking heads assembled in Tampa, for next week's Republican National Convention? "Let's make this interesting and throw in a hurricane for good measure".

Nothing is definite (it never is), but a storm brewing in the Caribbean may reach Florida late Sunday or Monday. Some of the admittedly sketchy long-range guidance strengthens the storm into a hurricane.

What to do if you are ever in the path of a hurricane? Director Steven Spielberg told me that during the filming of the movie "Jurassic Park" well-meaning staff evacuated his crew to the BASEMENT of his hotel on Hawaii's Kauai. Bad move.

In a tornado you want to be below ground - but in a hurricane you want to be on the 3rd floor or higher, to escape the storm surge, a sudden, deadly rise in tides near the eye.

No storms with names for us; sticky sun giving way to T-storms tonight, again Thursday. Highs surge well into the 80s; too early to retire the shorts.

Where is "Isaac" headed? Great question. The reliable ECMWF model brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico. From there? Anyone's guess.
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Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, T-shower risk late. Winds: SE 10mph. Dew point: 58. High: 84

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overnight Thunder, wrapping up by AM hours. Low: 64

THURSDAY: State Fair kicks off! Soggy start. Sticky with a slight chance of an afternoon T-storm. Dew point: 64. High: 83

FRIDAY: Warm, hazy sun. A few T-storms up north. Storms moving in late. Dew point: 65. Low: 66. High: 87

SATURDAY: Thunder early? Another soggy start. A mix of clouds and warm sun, isolated T-shower late. Low: 69. High: 85

SUNDAY: Front stalls. Hazy sun, a stray T-shower can't be ruled out. Low: 66. High: 80

MONDAY: What else? Sunshine. Pleasant!. Low: 64. High: 82

TUESDAY: Mostly quiet and a little warmer. Low: 66. High: 84

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Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

Great picture from Colorado StormChaser Photography from Lake Michigan! Several waterspouts were captured near Milwaukee, WI!

Dancing Waterspouts

StormChasingVideo.com HERE:

Another ‘Quieter’ Great Lake Picture

Thanks to Christine Clayburg and the Minnesota Air National Guard for the picture below over Lake Superior… WOW, what a view!

Christine Clayburg (Minnesota Air National Guard) also snapped this picture over downtown Minneapolis on a sunny Monday afternoon.

Morning Fog Via Satellite

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Pittsburg, PA for sharing the photo below from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast Region. Increasingly longer nights and higher moisture content near the ground and over bodies of water are sufficient for creating radiation/valley fog at this time of the year. The white areas below in the yellow circle are all areas of fog, mainly through valley areas.

See more on valley fog from PSU.edu HERE:

Southwest Monsoon

Thanks to Pamela Hanover from Arizona for the picture below. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in the monsoonal flow, which typically lasts through the end of September. Looks like Pamela has several humming bird guests that frequent her bird feeders as well!

Heavy Rain Potential in the Southwest

“A favorable weather pattern is setting up for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southeast Arizona today through Thursday. The best chance of strong storms will occur in the afternoon and early evening hours. These storms will produce strong winds with locally heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding.”

Southwest Rainfall

NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests 1″ to 2″ of rain possible in a few spots over the next several days. Nice to see the rain… unfortunately, some of the thunderstorms have been sparking new wildfires.

Active Western Wildfires

According to inciweb.org, there are several wildfires ongoing in the western part of the country right now. Hot and dry weather this Spring/Summer season has set the stage for an active fire season.

Trinity Ridge Fire

“Idaho town emptied as state’s worst wildfire nears

Thick smoke Sunday enveloped the town of Featherville, Idaho, where residents had evacuated as the state’s worst wildfire in years approached.

The fire was approaching on two separate fronts and was expected to reach the mountain town about 50 miles east of Boise later Sunday. Authorities ordered an evacuation of the town Saturday, saying homes and businesses in the area were in “imminent danger.”"
See more from NBCNews.com HERE:

(Photo Credit: inciweb.org)

Watching the Tropics

There are several waves in the Atlantic Basin:

1.) The remnants of Helene in the Gulf of Mexico

2.) Tropical Depression NINE east of the Caribbean

3.) Tropical Storm Isaac drifting west into the Leeward and Windward Islands

The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on a newly formed system east of the Caribbean. An early AM Tuesday update on Tropical Depression #9 showed Isaac developing into a hurricane at some point this week and possibly becoming a hurricane into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center forecast track suggests hurricane strength by early Thursday morning as the storm slides west of the Windward and Leeward Islands. According the the latest NHC forecast, by late weekend we’ll be tracking a stronger hurricane (Isaac) near Cuba on a northwesterly track… getting closer to the Florida Keys.

Several Options

There are several forecast options… below are a number of different model solutions, which all seem to agree on taking a northwesterly track toward Cuba. However, note how a chunk of those models begin to slide a little farther north toward the Bahamas, while only one of two shift the storm farther west toward Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Again, there are several options, so stay tuned for more updates!

Weather & Politics

It’s still too early to tell what is going to happen, but the developing storm could make things interesting for the Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL Monday, August 27th – Thursday, August 30th… Long range models are not ‘great’ at predicting the exact path of a storm as several factors (perhaps not even seen yet) come into play. All we know at this point is that there is a storm developing and the current track has it nearing southern Florida by late weekend/early next week… Stay tuned!

More Heavy Rain in the Southeast

The image below shows the 7 day radar estimates of rainfall for the Southeast. Areas in red suggest nearly 5″ to 6″ of rain!

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Tallahassee, FL for the information below

“Scattered, shallow convection will develop along and ahead of a surface front this afternoon. More numerous convection will develop along the surface trough across our southeastern counties, aided by upper level support. In this area, isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds the primary threat.”