By Paul Douglas
Unlike tornadoes, which last 5-30 minutes, impacting a few square miles, hurricanes swirl for days, even weeks - often affecting millions. NOAA satellites monitor these vast, Texas-size storms. Before the first Tiros-1 weather satellite (1960) forecasters relied on ship reports!
The last time Tampa was hit by a major hurricane was 1921. Since then the population has topped 2 million; most residents have never experienced a major hurricane. “SLOSH” models show a worst-case storm pushing 14-18 feet of water into Tampa Bay. The odds of this are slim.
The GFS model shows Isaac tracking up Florida's west coast Monday, focusing its fury from Sanibel & Siesta Key to Tampa. But the ECMWF has been consistent, taking Isaac into the Gulf of Mexico, with a strike near Louisiana by midweek. Encourage your friends & family from Houston to Miami to pay attention.
Isaac does put our T-storm risk into perspective. Hit the fair around midday; T-storms are likely tonight, again Saturday. The stickies are back. Dew points reach the 60s Friday with a high near 90 - a string of 80s next week.
And Isaac? It's been 7 years since a major hurricane hit the USA. Statistically we are overdue.
Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
THURSDAY: State Fair kicks off! Soggy start. Sticky with a chance of afternoon T-storms. Winds: SSE 5-15mph. Dew point: 64. High: 85
THURSDAY NIGHT: Lingering shower or storm, drifting into Wisconsin overnight. Low: 69
FRIDAY: Lingering shower early? Warm, hazy PM sun . Dew point: 66. High: 88
SATURDAY: A few drips early? Fading PM sunshine with isolated T-showers late. Low: 66. High: 85
SUNDAY: Stikcy start, looking better by late afternoon. Low: 66. High: 82
MONDAY: Nice day at the Fair! Comfortable sunshine. Low: 63. High: 82
TUESDAY: Slight chance of thunder. Low: 63. High: 83
WEDNESDAY: Storm system blows through with a slight chance of rain/thunder. Low: 66. High: 81.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
Emergency management officials are keeping watch on a tropical storm that could be swirling toward Florida during the Republican National Convention.
If the tropical disturbance churns out thunderstorms or becomes a hurricane, officials say they will follow standard emergency procedures for shelter and evacuation despite the additional 50,000 visitors and 15,000 protesters expected to be in town for the convention.”