72 F. average high for September 16.
60 F. high on September 16, 2011.
.25" rain predicted today (NAM model)
30+ mph wind gusts possible today as colder air arrives.
40 Degree Temperature Drop in 36 Hours. From 80 Sunday afternoon to 40 Tuesday morning, some upper 30s in the outlying suburbs. Most of the metro area, even the outlying suburbs, will probably avoid a killing frost late tonight. Graph: Iowa State.
First 32? According to the Minnesota State Climate Office the average (median) date of the first 32 F. low at MSP International is October 7, but outlying suburbs usually see the first 32-degree temperature the last few days of September. The first killing freeze (28 F. for several hours) is October 20, on average. At the rate we're going we may still see an early frost this season, although I think most suburbs will avoid a frost this week.
"So in the latest 15 year period there were almost twice as many billion dollar plus extreme weather events as in the 15 year period preceding it..." - from a story at The San Diego Free Press; details below. AP photo: Peter Morgan.
Blocking Patterns: How Global Warming May Have Worsened U.S. Drought. Extreme warming over the Arctic is affecting the jet stream patterns, with a greater tendency toward "blocks", holding patterns aloft that can make heat, drought (and flooding) worse. The Christian Science Monitor explains; here's an excerpt: "As the summer of 2012 winds down, with drought and searing temperatures its hallmark for much of the continental United States, researchers are trying to get a better handle on the factors that contribute to the persistence of weather patterns responsible for the extremes. The immediate culprit: patterns of atmospheric flow that steer storms along a given path for weeks, heating and depriving some areas of needed rain while drenching others. Such blocking patterns are a global phenomena, a normal component of Earth's weather systems. But some researchers suggest that global warming's influence on the Arctic and on the tropics can change circulation patterns in ways that keep blocking patterns in place longer than they otherwise might."
Photo credit above: "Drought-damaged corn is seen in a field near Nickerson, Neb., on Aug. 16." Nati Harnik/AP/File
Hurricane Climatology. The Tampa office of the National Weather Service has an interesting post, reminding us of a the tragic Hurricane of 1928 (before storms had names) that claimed nearly 2,000 lives across Florida. Other charts include the return frequency of all hurricanes (middle) and major, Category 3+ hurricanes (bottom). Details: "Florida's deadliest hurricane struck on this date back in 1928. The "Okeechobee" hurricane of 1928 made landfall near Palm Beach as a category 4 storm. Over 1800 people lost their lives, mostly from a 6 to 9 foot storm surge on Lake Okeechobee. The bottom two images show the average return date for hurricanes and major hurricanes. On average, Tampa Bay would see a hurricane pass within 50 nautical miles every ten years. Tampa Bay would see a major (category 3 or higher) hurricane pass within 50 nautical miles every 33 years. The last major hurricane to make landfall within 50 miles of Tampa Bay was in 1921!"
On This Date in Weather History (courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service):
1955: A late-season tornado hits Koochiching County. Most damage was confined to trees.
1911: Pipestone is hit with baseball-sized hail that smashes numerous windows at the Calumet Hotel and high school. The local observer measured hail three inches deep. People got their photos taken in automobiles surrounded by the icy white ground.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Gusty & cooler with showers. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 59
MONDAY NIGHT: Stil raw - much colder. Low: 39