71 F. average high for September 17.
67 F. high on September 17, 2011.
.19" rain fell from Monday morning's cold frontal passage.
.30" rain so far this month.
1.79" average rainfall for the first 16 days of September.
Big Swings. Today will be about 5-10 F. cooler than average, but still a pleasant fall day. After warming to or above 70 Wednesday we cool off again late in the week, a few weather models showing lows in the mid 30s Saturday morning.
Severe Weather Outbreak. Conditions are ripe for a squall line with hail, straight-line winds, even an isolated tornado for much of the east coast later today. SPC has a slight risk from New York southward to Atlanta and Savannah.
Ups and Downs. The ECMWF (European) model also shows 70+ Wednesday, cooling into the low 50s by Saturday with a few light showers (rain). Sunday looks sunnier and a bit milder, 70 returning by Monday. Nothing resembling a storm with significant rain in sight.
* Meteorologist Andrew Freedman at Climate Central has a good explanation of this paper and recent trends, how an Arctic warming twice as fast as mid-latitudes may be impacting our weather here at home - reprinted from earlier this year.
Let’s list the reasons.
1. Nothing appears likely to affect Texas over the next 10 days, reliable models suggest.
2. After Sept. 24, the historical odds of Texas getting hit by a hurricane are 1-in-50, meaning it’s happened three times in the last 150 years. So it’s rare."
* graph above courtesy of NOAA and The Houston Chronicle.
Photo above: AP, courtesy of Owen Humphreys.
Photo above courtesy of Kent Nickell, taken near West Liberty, Kentucky.
Photo credit above: Associated Press. ""
Brisk. So this is what autumn is supposed to feel like. After a wet start temperatures held in the 50s most of the day, statewide with some midday and PM sun giving way to instability clouds and sprinkles up north. Highs ranged from 59 Alexandria to 64 St. Cloud and the Twin Cities.
On This Date In Weather History (courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS):
1997: An F3 Tornado destroyed several buildings and numerous others damaged. Hundreds of trees were knocked down. A number of cattle were also killed in a barn that collapsed. One man was injured when the tornado engulfed his car and threw it into a nearby woods. A second man was critically injured when his garage collapsed. He died several weeks later. The total path length of the tornado from 1 NE of Lastrup to Onamia was 17 miles. Total property damages were estimated at $1.7 Million. In total, 6 tornadoes touched down in Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec.
1991: Duluth got a 2.5 inch summer snowstorm. (Fall was still five days away)
1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander in Morrison County started a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high "fire whirl." It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore.
1903: 3.75 inches of rain fell in the Minneapolis area.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Photo credit above: Jerry Angelica Photography/CC BY-ND 2.0
Court Rules for University of Virginia and Michael Mann Against Denialist Inquisition: Scholarly E-Mail and Documents are Protected Communication. Here's a good summary of what the courts did in response to a demand for climate scientist Michael Mann's e-mail correspondence while doing research at UVA from Climate Science Watch: "A Virginia court has affirmed the University of Virginia's right to withhold confidential scholarly communications, thus ruling against the global warming denialist American Tradition Institute's demand to make public climate scientist Michael Mann's documents and email correspondence with dozens of other scientists during his time at UVa. This is an important victory in a case that threatened to send a chilling message to university scholars that they could no longer to expect to engage in personal communications without having the whole world reading over their shoulders."