By Paul Douglas
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, not bad. High: 48. Winds: Winds: SE 5-10mph
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cool. Low: 30
TUESDAY: Lot's of sun - cool breeze. High: 48
WEDNESDAY: Zombie Alert. Dry Halloween with sun fading behind increasing clouds. Low: 30. High: 50
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, still quiet. Low: 31. High: 50
FRIDAY: Patches of blue sky, dry sky. Low: 33. High: 49
SATURDAY: MN Deer Hunting Opener. Weak clipper. Chance of a few showers, flurries up north? Low: 36. High: 50
SUNDAY: More sun by afternoon. Low: 38. High: 49
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.
An Historic Sandy vs. "The Perfect Storm" of 1991
The 500mb vorticity map by AM Monday shows the upper level trough and the remants of Sandy starting to merge.
AM Tuesday - Full Merge
This is the 500mb voticity map by AM Tuesday, which shows that the upper level trough of low pressure and the remnants of Sandy have merged completely. This will result in one of the largest upper level low pressure systems I've ever seen over the Northeast. Look at the lines of equal air pressure (isobars) and note how widespread it is. The result here will be an EXTENSIVE wind field surrounding the very impressive hybrid low pressure system.
ECMWF (European) Model
This has been the most consistent model thus far... beating every other model to the punch last weekend with the scope and magnitute of the potential storm and yet again, it is consistent! Nearly spot on with its last several runs over the course of the week, it brings a near 950mb central pressure storm into the Northeast by Monday evening.
947mb Low Forecast by the GFS
At the surface, the area of low pressure will be even stronger! The GFS is forecasting a 947mb central pressure just prior to making landfall Monday evening. The lines of equal air pressure (isobars) are even more tightly packed, which will result in significant winds, likely for days, but tapering a bit by the middle and end of the week.
Here was an Interesting quote from the Baltimore, MD/Washington D.C. NWS discussion:
"I cannot recall ever seeing model forecasts of such an expansive areal wind field with values so high for so long a time. We are breaking new ground here."
Significant Waves, Surf and Beach Erosion
One of the biggest concerns about this system is going to be the serious lashing across the coastal communities. Waves heights will be extreme, the storm surge will also be aided by the near full moon and high tide, which ultimately will have a dramatic impact of beach erosion along the beaches of the Eastern Seaboard.
Watch the waves from North Carolina thanks to Storm Chaser:
Impacts from Sandy (listed in rough order of priority, in terms of damage potential and number of people/companies impacted):
NYC Gearing Up for Superstorm
Thanks to my good friend Peter Brooks for this picture out of NYC. Peter said that businesses were already closing on Sunday ahead of the powerful storm. Look at this massive line outside a Trader Joe's, hoping to get supplies before the big storm hits.
Superstorm Causes Thousands of Flight Cancelations...
I sure hope you didn't have any big travel plans out east this week. According to The Washington Post, there have been thousands of flights cancelled with more possibly to come:
Read More HERE:
"NEW YORK — Airlines canceled more than 5,000 flights mostly as a result of Hurricane Sandy, with hubs along the East Coast bearing the brunt of the disruptions.
According to the flight-tracking service FlightAware, 1,100 Sunday flights have been canceled as of Sunday afternoon, with more than 265 cancellations at Newark Airport, a hub of United Airlines
For Monday, nearly 4,000 flights were canceled, with 857 cancellations at Newark, followed by 632 at New York’s Kennedy Airport and more than 500 cancellations at both New York’s LaGuardia and Philadelphia International.
FlightAware said it expects the number of flight cancellations for Monday and Tuesday to “rise considerably.”"
This storm has the potential to dump copious amounts moisture in the Northeast, likely to cause inland flooding in spots. Some of this moisture will even fall in the form of very heavy snowfall, likely to cause widespread power outages across parts of the Appalachians.
The models have been consistently printing out a staggering amount of snow across the higher elevations of the Appalachians through the middle part of the week! In some cases, there could be 3ft.+. This will be a very wet, heavy snow, so there will likely be downed trees and power lines, which will cause power outages.
Meteogram Output From Elkins, WV
I can honestly say that I've never seen this before from this meteogram. Look at the projected snowfall accumulation from Elkins, West Virginia. Some of the models are suggesting over 40" of snow!
Winter Weather Headlines Posted
These are all of the winter weather headlines that have been posted for parts of the Appalachians and surrounding areas.
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT
* LOCATIONS...BEST CHANCES ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 2000
FEET...TO 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE 3000 FEET.
* WINDS...INCREASING ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. SOME
OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES COULD GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY
STRUGGLE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR CHANGING TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. SNOW LOADING...OR THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW...MAY CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...INCLUDING
COLLAPSING ROOFS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD LEAD TO
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