Friday, May 10, 2013

Fishy Forecast (From frost to 90s in a few short days?)

Fishy Forecast

By Todd Nelson

From frost to 90s in a few short days? It's possible that by Tuesday, we could see 90s on temperature maps near you! Before that, though, we'll have to endure a fairly raw May day with a raw wind that may be just cold enough to keep those shorts and t-shirts in the closet.
For the Minnesota lakes that are currently ice free (there are still several across northern Minnesota that have not yet lost their ice) it'll be a little wild on the lake with a northwesterly wind at 15-30mph+. There will be a definite walleye chop out there. Those brave souls who venture out early will have to endure wind chills in the 20s and 30s, which will level off in the 30s and 40s through the afternoon/evening. Good news for Mom on Sunday, winds won't be quite as miserable and there will be plenty of sun, but temps will still be a bit on the chilly side.
Like a light switch, a strong warm front blows into town as we start a new work week. Monday, temps quickly settle into the 70s with 80s and possibly 90s not far behind on Tuesday, especially in southern Minnesota! With the warmth comes instability... a few isolated PM showers/storms may be possible next week as well.

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SATURDAY: Brief AM shower with intervals of sun, a cool wind. NW 15-30mph+. High: 53.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Still breezy and chilly. Patchy frost develops by morning. Low: 32

MOTHER'S DAY: Bright sun for mom. Less wind. High: 57. Wind: NW 10

MONDAY: Turning warmer, passing PM T-shower across NE MN and NW Wisconsin? Breezy South wind. Wake-up: 39. High: 70

TUESDAY: Summer-like building. 90s in southern MN? Isolated thunder across far northern MN. Wake-up: 58. High: 87

WEDNESDAY:  Cooler front slides through. Isolated thunder possible mainly across S. MN late. Wake-up: 62. High: 78

THURSDAY:  Sunny with a chance of Spring Fever! Wake-up: 54. High: 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny with an afternoon shower/storm possible. Wake-up: 53. High: 76.

 Ice Covered for MN Fishing Opener?

It's interesting that we're still talking about ice covered lakes here mid May, isn't it? An article by Startribune's Doug Smith suggests that "Some of more popular fishing lakes haven't seen an occurrence like this in perhaps 60 years."

"Ice reportedly is still 2 feet thick on some northern lakes, and though it has deteriorated in many areas, major lakes from Lake Mille Lacs north — including Leech, Upper Red, Cass, Lake of the Woods, Winnibigoshish and Vermilion — still could be mostly ice-covered Saturday.
“There will be substantial ice cover on the northern third of the state,’’ said Henry Drewes, Department of Natural Resources regional fisheries manager in Bemidji. “It will not be gone by Saturday. This is certainly the most significant late-season ice cover I have seen in my 25 years with the DNR.’’
One likely would have to go back to 1950, when late ice-out records were set on many lakes, to see a comparable situation."

Lake Mille Lacs
This is a view of Lake Mille Lacs from Friday courtesy - note how much ice is still out there! WOW!

Satellite Of Minnesota Lakes
Take a look at the satellite view over Minnesota from Friday. Anglers that are hoping to dunk to boat in the water for the fishing opener might have to head to one of the lakes in the southern half or two-thirds of the state as most of the northernmost lakes are still frozen. Notice the white color to Lake Mille Lacs, which is still frozen, while Lake Minnetonka near the Twin Cities is ice free!

Ice Out at Whipple Lake in Baxter
Thanks to my good friend Jen Polich for the pictures below out at Whipple Lake in Baxter, MN. Pretty quick ice out this week. My hunch is that there will be quite a few more lakes that open up this weekend with as much wind as we get Saturday!
THURSDAY (Not Ice Out)

FRIDAY (Finally Ice Out!) - The MN DNR website doesn't have data for Whipple Lake, but area lakes suggest that the latest ice out was early May. This certainly could be the latest ice out date on Whipple Lake that we've had in recorded history...

Officially Ice Out
The Minnesota DNR runs a fantastic website that shows what lakes are offiically ice out. It also compares this year's ice out vs. the earliest and latest ice outs in recorded history. It's interesting to note that there are several lakes this year that have and will set their latest ice out dates in recorded history.

Drastic Changes Ahead
WOW! Take a look at the wild ride we'll have over the next several days. From a windy and colder Saturday (MN Fishing Opener) and frost AM Mother's Day to highs flirting with 90 by Tuesday! Here's more from the National Weather Service out of the Twin Cities.
"A cold front will push through tonight with a period of showers accompanying it. Much colder temperatures will follow the front for Saturday as wind gusts approach 40 mph. High pressure building in Saturday night will lead to areas of frost and temperatures from the mid 20s to lower 30s. However, a large upper level ridge will build over our region by Tuesday afternoon, bringing a drastic increase in temperatures. Highs by Tuesday will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s."

 Tornado Drought Continues
This is pretty interesting from Iowa Environmental Mesonet that shows the number of days since that last tornado warning issued in the selected National Weather Service county warning area.

Extended Severe Potential
Keep in mind that May is typically the greatest tornado producing month of the year; I thought this was interesting. The extended 4 to 8 day severe weather outlook looks pretty quiet. Other than perhaps a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms here and there, it appears that there won't be any significant severe weather outbreaks coming in the near future... Stay tuned.

Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

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