Friday, June 7, 2013

Growing Thunder Potential PM Saturday; Soggy Sunday Ahead

12 Months Until Summer!

By Todd Nelson

"Only 12 more months until summer!" exclaimed one of my friends this week, as he along with many others are probably feeling cheated out of June so far. I can honestly say that these cool, cloudy days are having an impact on my Minnesota tan and golf game; I haven't had much time to work on either.

It appears that our weekend will be nearly a wash too as a storm system sails in through the day Saturday. There will be a growing thunderstorm risk with heavier rain possibly sticking around through Sunday. If your lawn is once again knee high, try to get out and mow early Saturday before the rain moves in; Sunday looks like more of an indoor chore day.

By the looks of the weather maps, we stay somewhat unsettled through next week too. A little bubble of warmth to our south will help to get temperatures back to near normal and possible even close to 80, but it might be a struggle.

If you're looking for hot sunshine, head to the Southwest. Phoenix, AZ will be up close to 110F this weekend and probably won't drop below 100F next week. Death Valley, CA is expected to top out near 120F Saturday afternoon! Does that make our 70s sound any better? I tried...
Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SATURDAY: Better lawn mowing day of the weekend: AM sun, T-showers late. High: 72. Winds: SE 10-15.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and storms, heavy rain possible across the southern half of Minnesota. Low: 58

SUNDAY: Cooler, soggier day of the weekend. High: 70

MONDAY: Lingering clouds and sprinkles. Wake-up: 56. High: 72

TUESDAY: Drier, a little sunnier and warmer. Wake-up: 57. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: A few T-showers south, some PM sun. Wake-up: 62. High: 78

THURSDAY: Isolated afternoon shower or storm possible. Wake-up: 63. High: 79.

FRIDAY: Passing PM thundershower? Wake-up: 64. High: 80.

ANDREA's Pace Quickens
ANDREA looked like a much more formidable storm on Thursday, just prior to landfall. Typically, as tropical systems lift farther north from the tropics, wind shear becomes a problem and they tend to get torn apart. Tropical storms and hurricanes feed off of warm ocean water temperatures and light wind speeds aloft and those types of favorable weather conditions are generally found closer to the Equator. Look at the tropical satellite image from Thursday afternoon. Other than bright orange cloud tops over Virginia, it's really hard to see anything that would resemble a tropical cylone.

ANDREA From Above
Thanks to my brother-in-law, Aaron Weidner, for the picture below. He was on business out east this week and happened to be flying above ANDREA Thursday as he was on his way home... pretty neat! Thanks Aaron!

  Image below courtesy NOAA

ANDREA Drenches East Coast
There were 10 tornado reports and several wind damage reports associated with ANDREA, but widespread wind damage has not been the biggest issue. The biggest concern with ANDREA really has been the excessive rainfall; from Floriday to Maine (13 states included) heavy rainfall of some 3" to 6"+ reports may be possible when all is said and done through the weekend.
The image below suggests the radar estimated rainfall from Friday. The red colors indicated 3"+

New York Rain
Thanks to my good friend Jamie Steinert for the pictures below from New York City. Looks like ANDREA made for a soggy Friday night out on the town...

Additional ANDREA Rain
As ANDREA picks up speed, there won't be as big of potential for as heavy or rainfall as what we've already seen across parts of the Southeast. NOAA's HPC from PM Friday through PM Saturday suggests the heaviest will be right along the Maine coast, possibly up to 2" to 3".
Tracking the Tropics...
The National Hurricane Center is also concentrating on another wave in the Atlantic, but at this point, it appears there is a low chance of it growing into a tropical cyclone.

Cool Great Lakes, Hot Southwest
Take a look at the weather map below. The white line shows the placement of the Jet stream, which also divides the warmer air from the cooler air. Note the buckle of cool air over the Great Lakes, but also note the bubble of heat in the Southwest. Temperatures in the Southwest have been nearly record highs in many locations over the past several days and may continue to do so!

 High Temps Saturday
Temperatures in the 100s aren't uncommon in the Southwest, but it's pretty hot out there and it looks like the heat will stick around for much of the next 5 to 7 days!

Saturday High Temps From Normal
Temperatures out west are still running 10F to nearly 20F above normal, while temps around the Great Lakes Region are still running a bit below average.

Furnace Creek, CA Temperature Outlook
Take a look at the temperature outlook for Furnace Creek, CA (Death Valley). Saturday appears to be the warmest day of the next 7 days as temperatures soar into the 120s. A nice little cool down in the low 110s is expected into next week... WHEW!

 Weekend Precipitation
NOAA's HPC 2 day precipitation forecast suggests how much rainfall may be possible across the nation this weekend. The big blob in the Northeast is thanks to the remnants of ANDREA, but an additional storm system moving into the Midwest will help to produce heavy rainfall potential of 1" to 3".

Severe Saturday?
 The big blog of precipitation is a response to thunderstorm activity that may be a little more vigorous at times. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for parts of the Midwest and Central Plains on Saturday.

Thanks for checking in, have  a great weekend!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

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