2.57" rain predicted by Sunday morning (00z NAM model).
85 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.
80 F. average high for June 19.
93 F. high on June 19, 2012.
A Soggy 48 Hour Spell. Heavy showers and T-storms are likely across the Upper Midwest into Saturday, possibly Sunday morning, as very hot, steamy air pushes north. Training thunderstorms may spark some 3-4"+ rains, and I could see some flash flooding. More heavy rain is likely over the coastal Carolinas; some 2-4" amounts possible over the next 5 days.
An Active Warm Frontal Boundary. Thunderstorms tend to increase during the overnight hours, as low-level winds focus on frontal boundaries. Conditions may be ripe for a few MCS (meso-convective) systems flaring up late each night, capable of torrential rains, gusty winds and frequent lightning. Storms spill over into Saturday, possibly Sunday morning. Keep your sun expectations low this weekend, but it will be warm and humid; highs in the 80s to near 90 with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
Unfortunate Timing. The 13th weekend in a row with rain? Looks like it. ECMWF model data keeps showers and T-storms into at least Saturday; Sunday the drier, sunnier (hotter) day. Dry weather may previal the first half of next week with highs in the 80s to near 90. Hot enough, but not "2012-hot".
Photo credit above: "A spectator shelters from the weather during a rain delay at the Queen's Club grass court championships in London, Wednesday, June 12, 2013." (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Graphic credit above: "The chart above shows the human development index for all 50 states. States with darker shading scored higher." (Source: Social Science Research Council)
Photo credit: J. Telling.
Photo credit above: "President Barack Obama speaks in front of the iconic Brandenburg Gate in Berlin Germany, Wednesday, June 19, 2013. Obama is planning a major push using executive powers to tackle the pollution blamed for global warming in an effort to make good on promises he made at the start of his second term. "We know we have to do more — and we will do more," Obama said in Berlin." (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
Graphic credit above: "What LaGuardia Airport could look like at high tide with 5 feet of sea level rise, an amount that could occur by 2100, according to some estimates." Credit: Nickolay Lamm/StorageFront interpretation of Climate Central data.
Photo credit above: "There is increasing evidence of man-made climate change and extreme weather events, according to a new report." Photograph: David Gray/Reuters.