By Paul Douglas
Let's just get this out in the open. I know plenty of Minnesotans who adore winter. They embrace the snow, the cold, the entire Nordic package of perfected pain.
And then there's everyone else; a significant majority (?) of meek mortals who merely tolerate winter. They hibernate, persevere, suffering in silence, daydreaming of their reward: a glorious, sun-baked summer. That's the compact we make: endure enough clippers and TV windchill maps and you'll be awarded quality cabin-time and a magic summer most Americans would die for.
It hasn't quite worked out that way in 2013. The core of the jet stream is 400 miles farther south than last year; a non-stop parade of storms and sloppy fronts passing almost directly overhead. The boundary separating light jacket weather over Canada from sizzling 90s and 100s is setting up nearby, providing a favored west-to-east runway for storms to track down, one after another. Usually we go 2-3 days between storms. This year: 24 hours.
Steamy 70F degree dew points return by late week, along with murky sun, highs from 85-90F, and a better chance of widespread, heavy T-storms.
Just warm enough for a dip in the lake. But watch for lightning.
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Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, risk of a stray shower. High: 78
TUESDAY NIGHT: Quieter. Low: 59
WEDNESDAY: More sun, still pleasant. Warmer. Slight chance of late PM thunder. High: 81
THURSDAY: Some sun, scatterd T-storms late, more humidity. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
FRIDAY: More numerous T-storms. Wake-up: 66. High: near 85
SATURDAY: Sticky with morning T-storms, some PM sun. Wake-up: 68. High: 88
SUNDAY: Some AM sun, PM T-storms pop. Wake-up: 67. High: 85
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This
weather is for fish! June has been a fairly wet month for some,
especially along the Eastern Seaboard. Radar estimates of rainfall
through the first half of the month are tipping the scales at 5" to 8"
or more, thanks largely in part due to Tropical Storm Andrea earlier
this Month. Thanks to Chris Smith from Northern Idaho for the fishy
photo below!
Precipitation Past 14 Days
The
image below shows pockets of heavy rainfall across the nation, with the
heaviest blob over the Eastern Seaboard. Note how the Southwest has
seen little precipitation so far this month!
U.S. Drought Monitor
The
U.S. Drought Monitor released it's latest drought map last week (New
update every Thursday) and showed that the central and western part of
the country is still in a deep drought. The latest rainfall has helped,
but we still need more and quite a bit more out west!
"This
U.S. Drought Monitor week saw some improvements along the Eastern
seaboard as the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season – Tropical
Storm Andrea – made landfall over Florida late last week bringing
strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms to the region.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea moved up the East Coast on Friday and
Saturday combining with a cold front to deliver heavy precipitation and
flooding to the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. Across the Great
Plains, scattered shower activity led to some modest improvements in
areas of drought over the eastern halves of Kansas, Oklahoma, and South
Dakota. In the Midwest west of the Mississippi, continued shower
activity led to improvements in drought areas of western Iowa and
southwestern Minnesota. In the South, modest rainfall led to minor
improvements over portions of the Texas Panhandle, central and
southeast Texas, and northwestern Louisiana. Out West, unseasonably hot
and dry conditions were felt late last week and during the weekend as
record-breaking heat gripped Arizona, California, and Nevada. Some
relief from the heat came to the region late Sunday afternoon and
Monday as showers and thunderstorms developed over northwestern Nevada
and northern California. In Alaska, unseasonably warm temperatures,
reaching the low 70s, were observed in south-central Alaska; southeast
Alaska, the Interior, and western Alaska experienced below-normal
temperatures."
Rainfall Needed to End Drought
This
is an interesting graphic. It shows much rain (precipitation) is
needed to end the drought across the country. It's a little disturbing
to think that there are places that need 6" to 12"+ of rain to end the
drought. Note the near 4" to 5" near the Las Vegas region... Keep in
mind that Las Vegas typically only sees 4" to 5" of precipitation per
year!
Drought Outlook
NOAA's
CPC Drought Outlook continues to show promise for those in the central
part of the country. Unfortunately, the drought outlook for folks in
the western half of the country, it doesn't look good where drought
conditions may persist for quite some time.
"Latest
Seasonal Assessment - During the past three weeks (since May 16), an
active weather pattern, consisting of a series of slow-moving storm
systems tracking across the northern tier of the Nation, brought ample
rainfall to the Pacific Northwest, the northern thirds of the Rockies
and High Plains, much of the Great Plains, Midwest, Delta, Great Lakes
Region, New England, and southern half of Florida. 3-week temperatures
have averaged below normal in the Northwest , northern Rockies and
Plains, and upper Midwest. Since May 1, the heaviest rains (more than 7
inches) have fallen on parts of the northern High Plains, the middle
Mississippi Valley, central Great Plains, the upper and lower Delta,
parts of Florida, and the southern Appalachians. In contrast, drier
conditions were observed in the Southwest, the southern Rockies and High
Plains, portions of the Southeast, especially Alabama, the eastern
Ohio Valley, and the mid-Atlantic."
Precipitation Outlook
NOAA's
HPC 5 day forecast brings another batch of heavier rain across the
southern half of the nation (except the Southwest). Several rounds of
showers and storms will be responsible for this soggy outlook. There is
also another slow moving low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest
that will be responsible for heavy pockets of rain along the Canadian
boarder over the next few days.
Severe Threats Ahead
June
can be a pretty active time for showers and thunderstorms and we'll
have no shortage of thunder potential this week. The Storm Prediction
Center has highlighted strong to severe thunderstorm potential over the
few days.
Check out some of the stormy pics from this weekend below...
Severe Threat Monday
Severe Threat Tuesday
Severe Threat Wednesday
2013 Tornado Drought
Even
with the recent spike in severe weather, 2013 is still lacking in the
tornado department. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the first
16 days of June has seen 92 PRELIMINARY tornado reports. June
typically sees nearly 250 nationwide.
2013 National Tornadoes
According
to the SPC, there have been 573 PRELIMINARY tornadoes across the
nation so far this year. On average, there should be closer to 1000!
Average U.S. Tornadoes By Month
On
average, the number of national tornadoes begins to decline in June. It
can still be a very active month, but we've typically seen the peak by
now. Big domes of hot air in the central part of the country during the
summer months is generally the reason for the decrease in tornadoes
and overall severe weather reports during the summer months.
Tracking the Tropics
Say
hello to Tropical Depression #2 in the Atlantic Basin, which developed
on Monday just southeast of Mexico. The track takes this thing over
eastern Mexico and then back into the Bay of Campeche before making
landfall with Mexico again later this week.
WebcamsDeMexico.com
This
was a picture from Bacalar, Mexico as a band of showers and storms was
rolling in on early Monday. Looks like a pretty nasty cloud there huh?
Tracking the Tropics
The
latest from the National Hurricane Center keeps this storm across
Mexico and well away from the U.S. mainland. It appears that the biggest
threat with this storm will be heavy rain and inland flooding.
Wildfire Update
The Black Forest wildfires in Colorado continues... Here's the latest from inciweb.org
"The Black Forest Fire started on Tuesday, June 11th. The cause is undetermined. It is located in the northeast section of Colorado Springs, within the city limits. Rich Harvey's Great Basin Type 1 Incident Management Team took over management of the fire on Wednesday June 12th at 6 a.m.
This wind driven fire moved very quickly the first day. The current assessment has determined 482 structures have been destroyed and 17 were damaged. Several thousand residents were evacuated. As areas cool down and have been cleared of potential safety hazards, some residents are being allowed to return to their homes. Safety assessments of structures are ongoing. A few resources have been released as firefighters continue to make progress toward their containment objectives."
Read more from inciweb.org HERE:
(Image below courtesy inciweb.org)
"BLACK FOREST - The Black Forest Fire is 65 percent contained, has destroyed 483 homes and damaged 17. It has consumed more houses than 2012's Waldo Canyon Fire - making it the most destructive fire in state history. More than 3,600 homes in the area remain untouched, and fire crews are working around the clock to keep it that way. The El Paso County Sheriff's Department is expected to release the names of the two people who died in the blaze on Monday. An investigation is underway into the cause of the wind-driven fire. All that is known at this point is the blaze was not started by lightning. Four burglaries and one impersonation of a fire official or police officer was reported in the Black Forest Fire area, El Paso County Sheriff Terry Maketa said Sunday. Some mandatory evacuations for the Black Forest Fire were lifted Saturday night. Residents to the north were allowed to begin returning home at 8 p.m. Saturday. They'll remain under pre-evacuation and must be ready to go at a moment's notice."
Watch/Read more from our affiliate KUSA in Denver, CO HERE:
Royal Gorge Fire
inciweb.org is reporting that the Royal Gorge Fire is now 100% contained!
See more from inciweb.org HERE:
Image below courtesy inciweb.org
Thanks for Checking in, have a great rest of your week!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV
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