76 F. average high for June 5. Ha!
83 F. high on June 5, 2012.
.15" rain fell on the metro yesterday.
Sunday: wetter day of the weekend.
70s and 80s return next week; ECMWF hinting at 90+ in 8-9 days.
* Tropical Storm Warning Gulf Coast of Florida, Tropical Storm Watch coastal Georgia and Carolinas.
* Greatest risk from Andrea is inland flooding; greatest potential for urban/river flooding Tampa to Panama City and Destin, then inland over Georgia and Appalachian communities from Chattanooga to Asheville, Roanoke, Hagerstown, Altoona and State College, where some 4-6" rainfall amounts are possible by Friday night.
* 3-4 foot storm surge predicted for Clearwater Beach by late morning Thursday, capable of minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion.
* 3 foot storm surge in Lower Manhattan (Battery) by Friday evening as a weakened Andrea accelerates right up the coast.
Let me say this again: warm sea surface temperatures, a lack of El Nino shearing winds over the tropics, and a persistently negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) all point to a much busier than average hurricane season. With a negative NAO the Bermuda High tends to set up much closer to Florida, nudging Atlantic storms closer to the USA. The fact that we're seeing a tropical storm in early June may be a strong signal of an active 2013 hurricane season to come. The last major hurricane to strike the USA was Wilma in 2005. We are long overdue for a Category 3+ landfall. The Boy Scouts have it right: "be prepared".
Summary: Andrea continues to strengthen (slowly) and reaches Florida's Gulf Coast as a moderate tropical storm Thursday afternoon or evening. As we've been saying for a week now inland flooding poses the greatest risk from this storm, especially over the hilly terrain of the southeast from northern Georgia to Asheville. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Tampa/Clearwater/St. Petersburg market Thursday, a minor storm surge from Savannah and Hilton Head to Charleston and the Outer Banks. New York Harbor and Long Island Sound will experience minor flooding with a 3 foot storm surge by Friday evening.
Some people minimize tropical depressions and tropical storms, but this can be a dangerous oversight. Some of our worst inland floods have been sparked by dying, slow-moving tropical storms interacting with mountainous terrain, which accelerates rainfall amounts and the potential for serious flooding. Andrea should move quickly enough to avoid severe or historic flooding, but I anticipate widespread flash flooding from the Panhandle of Florida across Georgia and the western Carolinas, with swollen rivers and urban flooding possible into Maryland and interior Pennsylvania by Friday afternoon. Minor flooding from 1"+ rains may slow traffic (land and air) from D.C. to New York and Boston Friday PM into Saturday, with conditions rapidly improving along the eastern seaboard by Sunday.
Photo credit above: "A storm develops just before it produced a tornado near El Reno Okla. just south of Interstate 40 on Friday May 31, 2013. Several tornadoes in the area caused damage and injuries." Photo: Chris Machian, ASSOCIATED PRESS.
Photo credit above: "Amateur tornado chaser Richard Charles Henderson sent this cellphone photo of a tornado to a friend minutes before the tornado killed him. The friend, George "Sonny" Slay, provided the photo to The Oklahoman."
Photo credit above: "People arrived at Fred and JoAnn Horn's home to help in their salvage efforts, Saturday, June 1, 2013 in El Reno, Okla. . He is a retired state trooper and now serves as a deputy for the Canadian County Sheriff's Department. Their home was heavily damaged in Friday night's tornado. More than two dozen family members, church friends and neighbors came to the Horn's home to help recover items that can be saved." (AP Photo/The Oklahoman, Jim Beckel)
Image credit above: "This May 21, 2013 file aerial photo shows the remains of houses in Moore, Okla., following a tornado the May 20, 2013 tornado. The Oklahoma City area has seen two of the extremely rare EF5 tornadoes in only 11 days. The tornado that hit El Reno had a record-breaking width of 2.6 miles. The one in Moore, a city about 25 miles away from El Reno, killed 24 people and caused widespread damage." (AP Photo/Kim Johnson Flodin, File)
Photo credit above: Shutterstock. "The gem of Florida's long eastern coast faces -- not surprisingly -- the greatest risk of damage, with 615,756 homes susceptible to flooding caused by hurricanes. About 25 such storms have struck the city in the past century. The city's location near the tip of Florida makes it highly vulnerable."
Photo credit above: "A Chinese man blocks military tanks on Changan Avenue, near Tiananmen Square in Beijing, June 5 1989." AP Photo / Jeff Widener
* long range ECMWF guidance is hinting at 80s next weekend (June 15-16), even a shot at 90s. We'll see.
Photo credit above: "Storm clouds gather over New Mexico in 2012. Increases in surface temperature and moisture will likely increase the intensity of thunderstorms." Photo by Nicoló Ubalducci/flickr.
Photo credit above: cumberlandregiontomorrow.org.
Photo credit above: "Americans have increasingly been building homes in the wilderness, often in areas where fire had been part of the natural landscape." Photograph: Reed Saxon/AP
Photo credit above: "A magnolia warbler, one of the most-sought birds on the shores of Lake Ontario this month. One of dozens of types of warblers to make appearances in trees and bushes from Oshawa to Hamilton in May."