* "Dorian" has now reached Tropical Storm status, with sustained winds of 50 mph. Conditions are ripe for (minor) strengthening in the days to come. Hurricane strength may be reached within 48 hours.
* Dorian should track north of the Lesser Antilles, possibly brushing The U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Monday of next week.
* It's still (very) early to contemplate final track and intensity, but Dorian poses some risk to Florida and the coastal Southeast USA the first half of next week.
Summary: Dorian is now a Tropical Storm, one that poses some risk to The U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in a Sunday-Monday timeframe. The longer-term track is still very much up the air, but people living in the Southeast should stay alert and stay tuned for updates. Any direct impact to the U.S., from Florida to North Carolina, would probably come Tuesday-Thursday of next week
Image credit above: "MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Dorian taken at approximately 8 am EDT July 24, 2013. At the time, Dorian had top winds near 50 mph." Image credit: NASA.
Graphic credit above: EPA. "This figure presents annual values of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI). Tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature trends are provided for reference. Note that sea surface temperature is measured in different units, but the values have been plotted alongside the PDI to show how they compare. The lines have been smoothed using a five-year weighted average, plotted at the middle year. The most recent average (2007–2011) is plotted at 2009." Here's more information on PDI, Power Dissipation Index, from NOAA GFDL: "PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single index. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s."
Photo credit above: Mike Groll - Associated Press. "A worker works on the roof of a zero net energy home at The Preserve at Mountain Vista on Tuesday, July 9, 2013, in New Paltz, N.Y."
Photo credit: Peter Searle, Camera Press/Redux. "De Grey’s research at Cambridge led him to believe we can cure aging—not just stop it or slow it."
Photo credit: "Facebook's Sheryl Sandberg is looming large in emerging markets." AP/Shizuo Kambayashi.
Photo credit above: "The empty and ice covered land of east Antarctica stretches for hundreds of miles." Photograph by Maria Stenzel, National Geographic Stock.
Photo credit above: "A nuclear icebreaker on its way to the North Pole in 2001." Wofratz / Wikimedia Commons
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