72 F. average high on September 15.
85 F. high on September 15, 2012.
65-70 F. dew points possible by midweek.
Jacket weather returns the end of this week.
In 40 years tracking the vagaries & eccentricities of the weather I've never seen the National Weather Service refer to a flood as "biblical". That's how the Denver office described it late last week. 15 inches of rain, falling on drought-hardened, wildfire-scarred soil, which made run-off even worse.
It wasn't the result of stalled T-storms, but a much-larger scale storm marooned over the Intermountain West, stuck in place for 6 days, forcing tropical moisture up against the Front Range. When assessing the potential for disaster don't just look at the intensity of a storm. The forward speed is just as critical.
When weather systems stall bad things often result: more intense heat, drought or flooding.
The 1991 Halloween Superstorm that dumped over 30 inches of snow on MSP will be forever tattooed on my psyche. That storm stalled too, and the models didn't pick it up.
No drama for us, just a warming trend, the best chance of rain & T-storms Thursday, before we cool down again late week.
.5 - 1 inch of rain fell Saturday night, the most in 5 weeks. Long-range models hint at a potential for more heavy rain late next week as we transition from shirtsleeves to light jackets.
Photo credit above: "A truck and car is washed away by a flash flood that hit Manitou Springs, Colo., Friday sits in a drainage, covered in rocks, Saturday, Aug. 10, 2013. Friday’s torrential rains swept mud, boulders and other debris from the burn scar down U.S. 24, washing away vehicles and damaging several homes and businesses in the area." (AP Photo/The Colorado Springs Gazette, Michael Ciaglo).
Photo credit above: "Reuters/John Wark. "An aerial view of a farm house surrounded by flood waters along the South Platte River near Greenley, Colorado September 14, 2013. Farming communities along the South Platte River were ordered to evacuate ahead of a predicted surge in the flooding which may have claimed a fifth life and has left many still unaccounted for, according to authorities."
* "Flash Flood Products: What Do They Mean?" Here's a good recap and reminder from NOAA.
Photo credit above: "In this image made with a slow shutter speed which blurred the rushing water, flood waters course through a small park in Boulder, Colo., Thursday morning, Sept. 12, 2013. Heavy rains and scarring from recent wildfires sent walls of water crashing down mountainsides in the area." (AP Photo/Jud Valeski).
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, still chilly. Low: 49
TUESDAY: Clouds increase - sun fades. High: 70
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. Sticky again. Dew point: 66. Wake-up: 60. High: 74
THURSDAY: Best chance of showers, T-storms. Wake-up: 63. High: 77
FRIDAY: Cool breeze. AM sun, PM clouds. Wake-up: 58. High: 64
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. September breeze. Wake-up: 47. High: 61
SUNDAY: Dim sun, turning warmer. Lake-worthy? Wake-up: 53. High: 68
Image credit above: "Water vapor satellite loop from Sept. 12, 2013 showing the plume of moisture directed at Colorado." Credit: CIMSS.