58 F. average high on October 17.
62 F. high on October 17, 2012.
Trace of rain reported at MSP International yesterday.
Frost possible by Sunday morning; frost/freeze likely next week.
Cold enough aloft for flurries next week (typical for second week of November).
Staring at the weather maps comes as a relief after the drama and trauma of recent days. Debt ceilings, fiscal cliffs - staring into the abyss. "Now let's go to Paul with the weather!"
I hope you can check out the Conservation Minnesota weather blog, which I spend entirely too much time on every day. You can get an updated forecast, but also see the raw model maps that drive these predictions. That, and a stream of weather and climate-related stories that catch my eye every day.
Today's post includes scientific confirmation that weather does impact our health. Lightning can spark headaches, sharp drops in air pressure ahead of storms can increase depression symptoms, and arthritis is more likely to flare up on cold days. All that stuff your grandma taught you.
The forecast calls for bouts of depression and arthritis as a series of Alberta Clippers yank increasingly cold air southward. Next week will look & feel more like mid-November than mid-October. A frost/freeze Sunday morning gives way to an airmass cold enough for the first flakes of autumn.
Right now I don't see any accumulation (it's too early to see that in print) but I'm sensing a little payback for a glorious September.
Lightning: Increased Headache Risk Lightning storms may trigger headaches and migraines in chronic sufferers, according to a study by University of Cincinnati researchers recently published in the journal Cephalalgia. The study detected a 31 percent increase in the risk of headaches and a 28 percent increase in the risk of migraines among chronic sufferers on days when lighting struck within 25 miles of participants' homes..."
First Coating Of Snow For Select Cities? Yes, this is my way of cheering you up on a Thursday. Thanks to State Climatologist Greg Spoden for providing me with this information. Bottom line, the mean (average) date of the first coating (tenth of an inch or more) in the Twin Cities is November 4. More details at this site:
Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport - Date of First Snowfall => 0.1"
(period of record: 1938 - 2012)
mean: November 4
earliest: September 24, 1985
latest: December 2, 1963
Duluth International Airport - Date of First Snowfall => 0.1"
(period of record: 1948 - 2012)
mean: October 23
earliest: September 18, 1991 (* note: very early snowfall last year - September 21, 2012 *)
latest: November 26, 2004
International Falls Airport - Date of First Snowfall => 0.1"
(period of record: 1948 - 2012)
mean: October 19
earliest: September 14, 1964
latest: December 8, 1999
Fargo International Airport - Date of First Snowfall => 0.1"
(period of record: 1942 - 2012)
mean: November 2
earliest: September 25, 1942
latest: December 14, 1999
Rochester International Airport - Date of First Snowfall => 0.1"
(period of record: 1933 - 2012)
mean: November 5
earliest: September 26, 1942
latest: December 19, 1939
Image credit above: "A computer model image shows the extent of dry air flowing westward from Africa on August 16." Credit: WeatherBell Analytics.
Photo credit above: "In this photo provided by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service, smoke rises from a fire near Springwood, west of Sydney, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013. Nearly a hundred wildfires are burning across Australia's New South Wales state, more than a dozen of which are out of control, as unseasonably hot temperatures and strong winds fanned flames across the parched landscape." (AP Photo/New South Wales Rural Fire Service).
Photo credit above: "Houses in a residential area in Oshima are buried by mudslides after a powerful typhoon hit Izu Oshima island, about 120 kilometers (75 miles) south of Tokyo Wednesday morning, Oct. 16, 2013. Typhoon Wipha has lashed Japan, leaving at least seven people dead on a Pacific island south of Tokyo as it cut across the capital region and headed north." (AP Photo/Kyodo News)
Ask Paul. Weather-related Q&A:
Are we passed the weather phenomenon that is known as Indian Summer yet? I need to resurface my flat roof with asphalt base coating before winter. No minimum temperature required but prefer it to be at least several degrees above freezing for a few days and dry.
Joe, Eau Claire, WI
Joe - technically we have to experience the first frost before we can call any subsequent warmth "Indian Summer". We should see our first sub-32-degree low by Sunday morning in the metro, but I don't see any big warm-ups through the first few days of November. The GFS model (below) shows highs near 50F next weekend, again around Halloween.
Image credit above: "In this 3-D map of potential temperature, relatively cool air wraps around Sandy's core near the surface (purple and blue colors), while air parcels gain heat from moisture condensing into clouds and precipitation as they ascend through the storm’s core." For more details on this simulation, see the YouTube videos below. (©UCAR. Image courtesy Mel Shapiro, NCAR).
Photo credit above: "" AP Photo/Junji Kurokawa.
* Do you know/trust the source? If you’ve never heard of the source before, disregard it and/or check information sources you trust for a second opinion.
* Is the source legitimate? Try to figure out who is maintaining the page that information or update is coming from. Is it a reputable news or weather organization like a TV station, newspaper, established private sector weather company (like AccuWeather or Weather Underground), or government agency (like the National Weather Service)? Is there available information about the meteorological credentials of the person/people managing the page?"
TODAY: Mostly cloudy and chilly. Slight chance of a PM shower. Winds: NW 10-15. High: near 50
FRIDAY NIGHT: More clouds, heavy jacket weather. Low: 37
SATURDAY: Lot's of clouds, PM shower or sprinkle. High: 45
SUNDAY: Early frost, late rain showers. Wake-up: 30. High: 46
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, few flakes in the air? Wake-up: 32. High: 40
TUESDAY: Early freeze. Partly sunny & brisk. Wake-up: 27. High: 41
WEDNESDAY: Patchy clouds, still nippy. Wake-up: 30. High: 42
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up: 32. High: 44