57 F. average high on October 19.
52 F. high on October 19, 2012.
.06" rain fell at MSP International yesterday.
Graupel reports yesterday around the metro area.
Some years we ease into winter - other years snow & windchill arrive suddenly, like a cold slap across the face. This will be one of those autumns. Payback for an August-like September? Maybe. I've found that unusually warm spells are often followed by equally cold surges as the atmosphere tries to reach equilibrium.
But none of us should be surprised or indignant. We're 2 months away from the Winter Solstice; the sun as high in the sky as it was in late February. When people complain I ask them to track their GPS location on a map of North America. Are you really surprised?
An Alberta Clipper pushes a cold rain into the MSP metro today, ending as a few flakes tonight. North of the storm track there may be enough cold air in place for 1-2 inches of snow from Brainerd to Duluth.
Here we go.
With temperatures dipping below 32F a few roads may be icy early Monday, especially north metro. A hard freeze is likely by Tuesday. Kiss your begonias goodbye. Highs flirt with 40F next week; ECMWF guidance hinting at a slushy mix next Saturday.
Any Indian Summer? Probably. I'm betting on a few days above 50F the first week of November. Our new definition of a "warm front".
Because nature rarely moves in a straight line.
Mainly Rain Metro - Slushy North? NAM data suggests a light accumulation tonight, maybe an inch or two from Brainerd and Bemidji to Duluth, a few inches for the Minnesota Arrowhead. Map: Ham Weather.
It's Clipper-Time Again. 4km. NAM model data shows a pinwheel of precipitation pushing across Minnesota today, rain starting and ending as a little slushy mix, especially central and northern Minnesota. I expect mostly rain in the Twin Cities, possibly ending as a few flurries tonight. Loop: NOAA and Ham Weather.
In Search Of October. It will look and feel more like early or mid November out there much of the week, afternoon highs struggling to top 40F into Friday, a slight warm-up by Sunday and Monday of next week, when 50F. isn't out of the question. Wow. That'll be fun. ECMWF data above shows a mostly-dry week for MSP, the best chance of a freeze Tuesday morning, maybe a slushy mix Saturday as milder air tries to push in from the Dakotas. Graph: Weatherspark.
MSP Snowfall During Federal Shut-Down Years:
81-82 95.0" - second snowiest
83-84 98.6" - snowiest
86-87 17.4" - fourth least snowiest
Shutdown Average: 59.6"
1981-2010 Average: 55.5"
When it comes to weather-related matters I trust your assessments more than anyone else in our neck of the woods (Mpls./St. Paul). I read your response to Joe from Eau Claire, and pardon if I'm a bit redundant, has cold weather moved in to stay for a few months? High's around 50 next weekend and possibly Halloween? Seems we always get a little reprieve from the first frosts. I know we ask a lot of crystal ball gazers such as yourself, tell me honestly though, how do the next few weeks look?
Thanks a lot,
Brad Stauffer from Minneapolis
I've never seen a cloud formation like this. What would cause this? I took the photo in South Mpls on Friday evening facing west.
Josh Downham, Minneapolis
Josh - thanks for a great example of "virga", illuminated by a low sun angle shining underneath the cloud base. Much of the rain is evaporating into drier air near the surface, leaving behind a cone-shaped swirl of rain drops, swept southeast by gusty winds near the ground. Virga is often mistaken for tornadoes from a distance, but the lack of rotation (and lightning nearby) is a tip-off that it's benign. That, and a dew point of 30 - that's a pretty good tip-off that tornadoes are the least of your concerns.
Raging Australian Wildfires Raise Questions About Climate Change, Emergency Preparedness. After record winter warmth fire season is coming (very) early to Australia - raising fears of another catastrophic fire year. The Christian Science Monitor has the story - here's a clip: "...More than 80 fires continue to burn across New South Wales, with over 20 blazes not yet contained, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corp. The early start to the bushfire season in New South Wales has prompted warnings that the state could face the same conditions that led to the 2009 fires in Victoria – the worst in Australian history. Those fires claimed 173 lives and caused more than $4 billion in damage..."
Photo credit: "In this photo provided by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service the remains of a structure are in a crumpled pile after a wildfire destroyed the building, at an unknown location in Australia, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013. Nearly a hundred wildfires are burning across Australia's New South Wales state, more than a dozen of which are out of control, as unseasonably hot temperatures and strong winds fanned flames across the parched landscape." (AP Photo/New South Wales Rural Fire Service)
- The largest fire in Arizona’s history (2011’s Wallow Fire)
- Both the largest and most destructive fires in New Mexico’s history (2012’s Whitewater-Baldy Complex and Little Bear Fires, respectively)
- The most destructive fire in Texas’ history (2011’s Bastrop County Complex Fire)
- The first and second most destructive fires in Colorado’s history (2013’s Black Forest and 2012’s Waldo Canyon Fires, respectively)
- The third largest fire in California’s history (2013’s Rim Fire)
TODAY: Light mix possible this morning. A cold rain for much of Minnesota most of the day, mixing with snow far northern counties. Winds: S/SW 10-15. High: 44
SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers taper, a few flurries mix in. 1-2"+ snow possible Brainerd to Duluth. Low: 30
MONDAY: Slisk spots possible early. More clouds than sun. WC: 29. High: 41
TUESDAY: Early freeze. Feels like November. Wake-up: 23. High: 40
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, less wind. Wake-up: 27. High: near 40
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, still brisk. Wake-up: 30. High: 41
FRIDAY: Plenty of sun, heavy jacket weather. Wake-up: 27. High: 43
SATURDAY: Chance of rain-snow mix. Wake-up: 30. High: 39
* photo above: WeatherNation TV meteorologist Todd Nelson.