40 F. average high on November 17.
54 F. high on November 17, 2012.
November 17 in Minnesota Weather History (Twin Cities National Weather Service):
1994: 58 to 69 mph wind gusts resulted in isolated damage to structures across south central and southeastern Minnesota. Some of the counties included were Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Le Sueur, Nicollet, Rice, Steele, and Waseca.
1979: Heat wave continues in Southwest Minnesota. Temperature hits 70 degrees at Browns Valley.
"...Measurable snow fell on 27 of the past Thanksgivings back to 1884, about every five years or so. The most snow that fell on Thanksgiving was five inches in 1970. The last time there was measurable snow on Thanksgiving was just last year with .1 (one tenth of an inch) of snow..." - from a Minnesota Climatology Working Group post on Thanksgiving Day weather from 1872-2012. Details below.
In Meteorology 1 you learn the atmosphere is most unstable in spring; that's when destructive tornadoes are most likely to touch down on the USA. Yesterday's outbreak was historic; the maps looking like May, not November. Around 80 tornadoes, some large and violent, on the 17th day of November? Surreal.
Weather patterns are shifting north as we continue to warm; more moisture & energy in the system. Yesterday may have been the 8th billion-dollar weather disaster of 2013. According to Aon Benfield 5 of the 7 U.S. billion-dollar disasters in 2013 were related to severe storms & tornadoes; the 3rd highest on record. Only 2011 & 2012 saw more severe storm damage.
A trend? We'll see.
Jeff Masters reports yesterday's "High Risk" was the farthest north an extreme tornado outlook was issued by SPC so late in the season.
Winds ease today; temperatures nudging 50F again Tuesday. A little rain streaks into town Wednesday - a colder front capable of sparking some light snow Thursday night. Nothing "plowable" though.
The next swipe of arctic air arrives Friday; highs hold in the 20s Saturday before recovering next week. GFS data shows 30s to near 40F around Thanksgiving with no big storms.
84 Hour Temperature Trends. NOAA's NAM model of 2 meter temperatures shows plenty of chilly air over the northern USA, a brief warming trend over the central USA Tuesday and Wednesday before much colder air approaches - the subzero isotherm showing up just north of the USA/Canada border by Thursday morning. Loop: Ham Weather.
Map above: Colin Woodard's map of the "11 nations."
MONDAY: Bright sun, less wind. Winds: NW 10+ High: 36
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear and chilly. Low: 27
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, turning milder. High: near 50
WEDNESDAY: Growing chance of rain showers. Wake-up: 42. High: 49
THURSDAY: Cold wind, light snow at night? Wake-up: 36. High: 37 (falling)
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, "cold enough". Wake-up: 21. High: 29 (single digit wind chills)
SATURDAY: Blue sky, dig out the coats. Wake-up: 17. High: 26
SUNDAY: Dim sun, not as cold. Wake-up: 16. High: 35
* photo above: Renee Schneider.
Photo credit above: "A family outside their makeshift home in Guiuan, Philippines, Nov. 17, 2013. Typhoon Haiyan barreled through the Philippines over a week ago, killing thousands." (Bryan Denton/The New York Times).
Photo credit above: "Editha Ladera, a farmer, surveys the damage to her property in Jaro, Leyte province, Philippines, Nov. 17, 2013. Typhoon Haiyan barreled through the Philippines over a week ago killing thousands." (Jes Aznar/The New York Times).