Breaking News: Clueless Minnesota Meteorologist Touts Advantages of Ridiculously Cold Weather!
Here's what I like about occasional cold waves. I like how it brings people together, often against their will. I like the way 32F feels (freezing!) after a subzero stretch. I like the fact that this level of cold is required to kill beetles and other pests chomping away at Minnesota's North Woods.
I like the way people's eyes get big when you tell them you live in Minnesota.
And finally I relish the fact that, in spite of all our advanced technology, there's not a 'ding-dang thing we can do to stop it. We are (still) very much at the mercy of the elements. It's good to be humbled every now and then.
That said, getting a flat tire in open country today could be life-threatening. Another lobe of the much-hyped Polar Vortex arrives on 40 mph wind gusts, whipping up ground-blizzards just west of MSP. A 20 mph wind sustained wind will spark a wind chill factor of -45F Monday morning.
I'll be amazed if schools open up Monday, again Tuesday. Temperatures bottom out Tuesday morning at -23F.
This may wind up being the coldest January since 1994 in the Twin Cities. 20s (above zero!) will feel like a Godsend late next week.
...A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT... THEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON TO ALBERT LEA. PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS EXPECTED SNOWFALL... AND IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO NEW RICHMOND TO MENOMONIE... INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. THIS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING DOES TAKE EFFECT... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH... WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA... WITH MORE SPORADIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE... BUT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION... TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY MORNING... FALLING FROM AN EARLY HIGH IN THE TEENS AND 20S TO READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER MOST AREAS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP INTO A RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY.
* This is still a 204 hour forecast, the rough meteorological equivalent of predicting what the NASDAQ will be on February 3. Good luck with that. The forecast for Super Bowl weather will change as new data arrives and supercomputer predictions zero in on a reasonable solution.
* Right now I don't see any blizzards for the game itself, in fact the trend with recent computer runs is milder and drier. Temperatures may reach the 40s earlier in the day at The Meadowlands, but probably hold in the 30s for the game itself.
* The most reliable model (ECMWF) suggests dry weather most of Sunday, patchy clouds with a risk of a (rain) shower. Friday appears to be the best travel day with generally dry conditions and few delays at nearby airports. I could see a rain-snow mix on Saturday with a slight chance of a slushy coating; probably no wide-spread delays with ATC. Getting out Monday should be OK with a slow clearing/drying trend behind a cold front.
Summary: based on the best available model guidance I don't see any major weather nightmares shaping up for metro NYC for this year's Super Bowl. A nuisance rain-snow event is possible next Saturday, maybe a little slush, but with temperatures at or just above 32F I expect most (major) roads and runways in northern New Jersey to be wet vs. icy or snow-covered. The best travel days will be Friday and Monday, although getting out late Sunday night shouldn't be an issue either.
Setting Expectations: I'll provide updates each afternoon, after I've had a chance to digest the day's 12z ECMWF run to look for patterns and trends.
Broncos by 7. Trust me, I'm a weatherman.
Image credit above: "The variable-mesh MPAS grid can be customized to feature higher resolution where added detail is desired, as illustrated here for North America." Courtesy MPAS.
Image credit above: "Satellite imagery of artificial light, like this picture of Italy, can reveal the human activity you might want to avoid." (NASA).
Address: if you want to check it out head to 2700 block of 16th Street Northwest in New Brighton; it's near Totino Grace.
TODAY: Winter Weather Advisory metro area - Blizzard warnings for much of central and Western Minnesota for high winds and ground blizzards from 30-40 mph gusts. Blowing snow. High: 18
SUNDAY NIGHT: Dangerously cold. Low: -17 (windchills near -45F by morning)
MONDAY: Minnesota is cancelled. Partly sunny and frigid. WC: -45. High: -8
TUESDAY: Still sunny. Still subzero. WC: -35. Wake-up: -23. High: -7
WEDNESDAY: Sweet relief. Clouds increase. Wake-up: -16. High: 29 (above)
THURSDAY: Some sun, not as polar. Wake-up: 7. High: 10
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, colder than average. Wake-up: -5. High: 14
SATURDAY: Chance of snow southern MN. Wake-up: 6. High: 18
Photo credit above: "The US side of Niagara Falls has begun to thaw after being partially frozen from the recent "polar vortex" that affected millions in the US and Canada." Photograph: Nick LoVerde/AP.
Climate Change Awareness Increases With Extreme Weather Conditions. Is the velocity of extreme weather, worldwide, truly increasing? Is it our imagination - or better reporting? Here's an excerpt from Science World Report: "...Bill Gates also acknowledged the importance of the issue and believes that there is an awareness problem concerning climate change. Gates reiterated that since the issues of climate change and development are interlinked, the focus should not be more prevalent on either individual subject because it is a collective issue. He also warned of the dangers of growing prosperity, because as more people begin to afford new uses of energy, it is paramount that the energy is generated in a clean way or else the current state of affairs will worsen dramatically..."
Photo credit above: AP Photo/Marco Trovati.
Photo credit above: "Global warming is progressing at such a rate that scientists say many previous sites of Winter Olympics would be too warm to host a Winter Games by the last half of this century." (Dominic Ebenbichler/Reuters).
File photo above: "In this Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2013 file photo insulated blankets cover a snow storage unit in the Rosa Khutor Alpine center in the mountain cluster in Krasnaya Polyana outside the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia. Sochi will have enough snow for the Winter Olympics in February, Russia's chief weather forecaster vowed Friday. Concerns about a snowless Olympics were raised after two test events in Sochi had to be cancelled last February because of a lack of snow or rainy weather. The resort city on the Black Sea is the only sub-tropical region of Russia." (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, File).
"Climate change is real and man-made ... After year 2070, global warming will become a net cost to the world, justifying cost-effective climate action."Image credit above: "Bjorn Lomborg leads the Copenhangen Consensus Center, which has concluded that more global warming will be worse for the economy." Photograph: Camera Press.