Almost anywhere else in America, with the possible exception of Fairbanks, the National Guard would be called out by now. FEMA would be advising us to shelter in place. Local TV stations would be droning on with continuous coverage.
No matter how many schools close today life goes on. Most of us will trudge to work or the local store. You may even see a few crazies jogging and cross country skiing, in spite of a -45F wind chill early today.
Canada launches another full-frontal assault, another artillery blast of numb to rival January 6-7. For all intents and purposes it will be just as cold. At the rate we're going kids may still be in school on the 4th of July.
I know, not funny.
After bottoming out near -22F Tuesday morning the mercury rebounds into the 20s Wednesday; the first week of February still colder than average, but not as polar.
Why so much wind this winter? The sharper the temperature contrasts the stronger winds have to blow to keep the atmosphere in a state of equilibrium, however uncomfortable.
If you're curious odds favor clearing skies and 30s for Super Bowl Sunday. Meanwhile a couple inches of slushy snow may coat the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday.
Yes, we feel their pain.
* I still don't see a major storm, certainly no blizzard for Super Bowl Sunday on February 2, 2014.
* Latest models hint at a possible rain/snow shower Sunday morning, with clouds lingering most of the day - but I expect a drying trend during the PM hours Sunday at MetLife Stadium, temperatures falling through the 30s with west winds at 10-15 mph.
* New York City will get a taste of the polar cold, but temperatures moderate somewhat by next weekend, closer to average.
* Right now I don't expect any major transportation challenges the Friday before the big game, but a light rain/snow mix may create some (minor) slushy issues Saturday. What has changed since yesterday? Models bring a rain/snow mix into metro New York during the day Monday. Getting out late Sunday or first thing Monday might be a prudent plan, reducing the risk of delays, until the pattern crystallizes we want to err on the side of safety and caution.
Summary: Although not quite as mild as yesterday's solution, I have high confidence that temperatures will be in the 30s for the Super Bowl, with moderate confidence of no steady/heavy rain or snow. A snow shower can't be ruled out during the morning and midday hours next Sunday, but skies will probably dry out during the afternoon and evening hours. Getting in Friday shouldn't be a problem, some delays possible Saturday with a light mix of rain/snow pushing into metro New York, another chance of (mostly) snow the Monday after the game.
This is still a 7-Day forecast, so overall confidence levels remain low. I want to be transparent about setting weather expectations, knowing the forecast will invariably change as new data comes in. But right now I do not see any blizzards or major storms on February 2 in the New York City area that would have a high impact on travel or events. Stay tuned...
Photo credit above: "Seen above on Tuesday, a tree that is usually at the banks of Folsom Lake outside Sacramento is now several hundred feet away from the water. In his drought emergency declaration, Gov. Jerry Brown asked Californians to cut their water usage by 20%." (John G. Mabanglo / EPA).
Photo credit above: "Shuqualak, Miss. residents clean up debris after a tornado plowed through rural sections of eastern Mississippi in April 2013. The Storm Prediction Center plans to broaden its warning system for severe weather after finding the days labeled as “Slight Risk” turned out to have storms that could be deadly." Rogelio V. Solis/AP.
TODAY: Windchill Warning. Partly sunny and sub-arctic. Feels like -45 early. High: -8
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear - one of the two coldest nights of winter. Low: -22
TUESDAY: Still polar with blue sky, slightly less wind. WC: -40. High: -3
WEDNESDAY: Fading sun, closer to average. Wake-up: -9. High: 25
THURSDAY" Snow near Iowa border. Colder. Wake-up: 13. High: 14
FRIDAY: Sunny, still nippy. Wake-up: -8. High: 9
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, not as harsh. Wake-up: 4. High: 22
SUNDAY: Intervals of sun. No sign of spring. Wake-up: 2. High: 21
Photo credit above: "Diners at Kerry's Kitchen, a restaurant that sits near railroad tracks, in Casselton, N.D., Jan. 16, 2014. A fiery rail accident last month only a half mile down the tracks from the restaurant, which prompted residents to evacuate the town, has shattered people's confidence in the crude--oil convoys that rumble past seven times a day." (Jim Wilson/The New York Times)
Photo credit above: "The US side of Niagara Falls has begun to thaw after being partially frozen from the recent "polar vortex" that affected millions in the US and Canada." Photograph: Nick LoVerde/AP.
Climate Change Awareness Increases With Extreme Weather Conditions. Is the velocity of extreme weather, worldwide, truly increasing? Is it our imagination - or better reporting? Here's an excerpt from Science World Report: "...Bill Gates also acknowledged the importance of the issue and believes that there is an awareness problem concerning climate change. Gates reiterated that since the issues of climate change and development are interlinked, the focus should not be more prevalent on either individual subject because it is a collective issue. He also warned of the dangers of growing prosperity, because as more people begin to afford new uses of energy, it is paramount that the energy is generated in a clean way or else the current state of affairs will worsen dramatically..."