37 F. high in the Twin Cities Tuesday.
50 F. average high on April 1.
36 F. high on April 1, 2013.
.2" snow fell yesterday at KMSP.
63" snow so far this winter in the Twin Cities, 10.9" above average, to date.
49.3" snow had fallen last winter as of April 1.
How 'bout those Twins!
I'm starting to wonder out loud if it's too late to find a sports gig in town. Something a little less controversial than babbling about Minnesota's increasingly manic weather.
Just when I thought I'd seen everything along comes Monday's lion-like departure to March. 70s. Tornadoes. Blizzards. On the same day - in the same state.
A state of severe atmospheric confusion.
Folks up in Thief River Falls can be excused for being extra-cranky: 18 inches of new snow fell.
Dazed robins in my yard are chirping a melancholy tune, because they must sense what's coming. It's still too early to opine about snowfall totals, but both ECMWF and GFS models suggest plowable, shovelable amounts of snow here Thursday; wet, heavy, slushy, gloppy "heart attack" snow. Freeways may stay wet and mushy, but Friday may wind up testing your character, resolve and stoic sense of humor. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted - details below.
Skies clear Saturday; long-range guidance showing a Pacific puff of 50-degree air the latter half of next week.
There's a good chance El Nino will return by May, a warm stain of Pacific Ocean water that usually results in warmer than average temperatures, nationwide. We'll see.
Expect 40s Opening Day at Target Field.
* Slight severe risk Wednesday (especially PM hours) from near Kansas City and Little Rock to Tulsa, Dallas and Shreveport - a few tornadoes are likely, and I expect Tornado Watches to be issued by NOAA SPC by early afternoon.
* Severe risk shifts east on Thursday, with a potential for tornadic supercell T-storms from St. Louis and Little Rock to Evansville, Bowling Green, Kentucky and Memphis, Tennessee. A few large, violent tornadoes can't be ruled out, especially Middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday afternoon and evening, with a squall line containing hail and damaging straight line winds pushing into the Ohio Valley by Thursday night.
* It sounds like a cruel April Fool's joke, but the weather maps look more like early March than early April across the Upper Midwest. Significant, plowable snows are possible from northern Iowa and the southeastern half of Minnesota into much of Wisconsin late Thursday into Friday. Significant travel delays are expected from Des Moines, Rochester and the Twin Cities to Eau Claire, La Crosse and Wausau, Wisconsin, with Friday being the worst travel day.
On the cold side of the storm winter is still very much alive and well:
* The heavy, wet nature of this upcoming snowfall may increase the risk of sporadic power outages late Friday night into Saturday. Some ice will be mixed in with the snow, especially Thursday, changing to mostly snow on Friday as colder air wraps around the storm.
Summary: I'm already seeing some (very early) evidence of a brewing El Nino warming phase in the Pacific, which tends to strengthen the southern branch of the jet stream, invigorating storms over the central and southern USA. I suspect this trend will continue into early summer, with cooler weather over the northern states, and rapid warming in the south setting the stage for more tornadoes and severe weather in general than we experienced in 2013. Severe thunderstorms capable of isolated tornadoes are likely Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night from the central and southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Staff should be alert for potentially violent storms capable of large hail, damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph, and a few tornadoes capable of more widespread and significant damage. On the cold side of the storm another major snow event is brewing from Iowa and Minnesota into Wisconsin from Thursday PM into Friday. If it's any consolation (doubtful) long-range model guidance shows 50s and 60s returning for this same region for the latter half of next week. A rapid thaw may increase the potential for mostly minor river flooding, but the slow melt of recent weeks has helped to ease the overall risk, especially in the Red River Valley, where the threat was greatest. We'll continue to monitor conditions and have an update Wednesday.
File Photo credit: "The Red River out of its banks just south of Moorhead in 2009." Photo: Marlin Levison, Star Tribune.
Photo credit above: " Credit Joshua Davies Communication Specialist 2nd Class/U.S. Navy Photo.
Dim lights are meant to prepare you for evacuation, not sleep.
"When a plane is landing at night, they dim the interior lights incase you need to evacuate upon landing... your eyes are already adjusted to the darkness so you'll be able to see better once outside the plane." --@bonestamp
TODAY: Partly sunny, less wind. East 10. High: 45
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, slushy snow possible late. Low: 32
THURSDAY: Winter Storm Watch. Rain-snow mix, sloppy roads. High: 39
FRIDAY: Winter Storm Watch. Plowable snow likely. Messy and slow travel. Wake-up: 30. High: 34
SATURDAY: Sun returns. Snow melts. Wake-up: 20. High: 43
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, a little drizzle. Wake-up: 32. High: 44
MONDAY: More clouds than sun @Target Field. Wake-up: 34. High: 47
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Drama-free. Wake-up: 31. High: near 50
* 50s are likely the latter half of next week.
** Twitter cartoon credit here.
Graphic credit: WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and The Guardian.
* A link to the latest IPCC WG2 Climate Summary is here.