38 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday.
57 F. average high on April 14.
38 F. high on April 14, 2013.
Winter Storm Watch much of central Minnesota Wednesday
Plowable snowfall possible from Brainerd to Crosby, Sandstone and Duluth.
60 F. high possible again by Easter Sunday.
Over the Horizon
There's a better than 50/50 shot that El Nino is returning. A stain of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean is gaining momentum, spreading east, and it may flavor our weather here in Minnesota by the latter half of 2014.
Every El Nino is different, but most warm phases of the Pacific result in cooler, wetter summers for the Upper Midwest. It may even take the edge off a deepening drought from California to the southern Plains. El Nino events often energize the southern branch of the jet stream; increased winds over the tropics often inhibit hurricane development in the Caribbean. If El Nino remains in place odds would favor a milder than normal winter next year.
Maybe we'll catch a break.
Maybe I'll delusional.
Please, no wagering. That's more of an exercise in hand-waving than a forecast.
A push of chilly, dry air out of Canada sets the stage for a rain/snow mix Wednesday. A few inches of slush may pile up from Brainerd and Lake Mille Lacs to Duluth, but the sun is too high in the sky for snow to linger.
Like turning on a light switch, a taste of May arrives next week as a ridge of high pressure surges north. A string of 70s, scattered T-storms? A real warm front!
* map above from NOAA NESDIS shows sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean running 1-2F warmer than average.
Photo credit above: Brainerd Dispatch/Steve Kohls. "With the College Drive Bridge in the background, Mississippi River ice is gathering just south of Kiwanis Park Sunday as the river flow begins to increase."
-- Boardman River at Mayfield
-- SBr Tobacco River at Beaverton
Locations forecast to reach record stage are:
-- Muskegon River at Evart
-- SBr Au Sable River at Luzerne
-- Au Sable River at Red Oak
-- Manistee River at Sherman, Mesick, Hoxeyville..."
Image credit above: "New software from the University of Washington can accurately predict what your kid will look like as an adult." (Image: University of Washington).
TODAY: Cool sunshine. Still bug-free. Winds: West 8. High: 41
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, wet snow possible late. Low: 31
WEDNESDAY: Slushy mix of rain and wet snow; few inches central Minnesota. High: 39
THURSDAY: Blue sky, better travel day. Wake-up: 26. High: 42
GOOD FRIDAY: Some sun, a dry sky. Wake-up: 29. High: 49
SATURDAY: Cloudy with a cold rain. Wake-up: 31. High: 45
EASTER SUNDAY: Milder with sunny breaks for Easter. Wake-up: 40. High: near 60
MONDAY: Partly sunny, springy again. Wake-up: 42. High: 70
Photo credit above: Water Missions International. "Uganda children at a water tap in this undated photo."