66 F. average high on May 4.
49 F. high on May 4, 2013.
60s every day through next Monday.
75-80 F. warmth possible Thursday if the sun comes out.
First widespread severe storm outbreak Thursday?
Super El Nino?
The long-range outlook is an enigma wrapped in a riddle but every now and then Mother Nature gives off clues. The chance of an El Nino warming event later this year has risen to over 70 percent and this one may be very significant. The amount of warm water in the equatorial Pacific is greater than any time since the record El Nino of 1997-98.
A regular, garden-variety El Nino starts up in the eastern Pacific and moves west. Super El Nino events do the reverse, starting near Australia, then shifting east toward the Americas. That's what's happening in 2014. El Nino often throws a monkey-wrench into global weather, sparking droughts and floods in unusual locations, warming the atmosphere even further. 1998 was the warmest year, worldwide, on record in the 20th century.
Most, but not all, El Nino summers tend to be cooler/wetter in Minnesota, but fall/winter tends to trend warmer & drier. Details in the blog.
A sprinkle is possible this morning as temperatures limp toward 60F. Our slow-motion spring revs into high gear by midweek with T-storms; a few may become severe Thursday with highs near 80F. ECMWF models shows another soaking storm 1 week from today. No need to water anytime soon.
On May 5 I'm happy to report that snow/frost season is over.
Graphic credit above: "The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature at 100m depth to 21 April shows a warmer than average temperature of up to 4C across most of the equatorial Pacific." Credit: Bureau of Meteorology.
Photo credit above: Carol Von Canon.
Photo credit above: "National Weather Service meteorologist Tim Troutman analyses incoming weather radar data at the office in Huntsville, Ala., as he talks about 81 black-and-white photographs of April 3, 1974, tornado damage that recently were found in an old filing cabinet." Photo by Ben Benton.
- "Know where safe shelters are in public places you frequent like church, the grocery store, or a mall. Spaces under wide, arched roofs are not safe.
- Teach your children to crouch down on the floor, against a wall, with their hands covering the back of their head.
- Understand the difference between a watch & a warning. A watch means conditions are “ripe.” A warning means weather is in action..."
Photo credit above: "Because of the dry conditions, the Angeles National Forest in Southern California is experiencing "very high" fire danger." Tom Dreisbach/NPR.
TODAY: Intervals of sun, milder. Winds: East 10. High: 62
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low: 46
TUESDAY: Clouds increase, mild breeze. High: 65
WEDNESDAY: T-storms, then lukewarm sun. Wake-up: 52. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Warm surge, PM severe T-storms? Wake-up: 59. High: near 80
FRIDAY: Damp start, then clearing. Wake-up: 50. High: 66
SATURDAY: Early sun, late showers, thunder. Wake-up: 48. High: 67
SUNDAY: Some sun, still feels like spring. Wake-up: 51. High: 69
Photo credit: Mark Garfinkel.