83 F. average high on July 22.
88 F. high on July 22, 2013.
July 22, 1987: Greatest deluge ever in Twin Cities begins with 10 inches in six hours at the Twin City airport.
A Slippery 7-Day
Why do most TV stations put the weather segment near the end of the news? Why is the 7-Day Outlook the last element of weather presentations? Because that's what people want to see. Broadcasters want you to stay tuned (and enjoy a few more commercials!)
The forecast, especially the long-range forecast, is always changing, which can be incredibly frustrating for everyone involved. What looked like a nice weekend on Monday can turn into a rainy mess by Thursday. How is that even possible?
Computer models update 4 times a day, based on the latest raw data: airport observations, weather balloons and satellite imagery from around the world. As new, high-octane fuel arrives the models adjust, and the forecast often shifts.
Much like a stock price changes based on earnings projections, competition and new breakthroughs, so does the weather forecast, with the greatest swings from Day 4-7. Today's 7-Day accuracy is comparable to a 3-4 Day forecast 20 years ago. Not great, but gradually improving.
A comfortable Wednesday (dew points in the 50s) gives rise to more T-storms by Thursday; a few more T-storms decorate the Doppler by Sunday. Saturday should be the drier, warmer, more lake-worthy day.
Another transfusion of cooler, Canadian air arrives next week. More free A/C!
* The National Weather Service has a complete list of Monday night's weather-related damage.
Can Typhoon Matmo Impact Our Weather? New research shows a possible link between typhoons and hurricanes reaching a northern latitude, and subsequent amplification of ridges and low pressure troughs thousands of miles downwind. There's a good chance the typhoon pushing into southern China may help to pull another surge of cool air into Minnesota next week; that's the subject of today's Climate Matters: "New research shows that when a hurricane or typhoon reaches above a specific latitude, it can throw the jet stream out of whack. What does it mean? WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas goes over the new data and what it might mean for the lower 48. Also, why has the Atlantic hurricane season been relatively quiet?"
Image credit above: "Hurricane Mitch, the strongest storm observed in 1998, is the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Mitch caused more than 10,000 deaths, mainly due to torrential rainfall across Central America." (Wikimedia Commons/NOAA satellite image.)
Image credit above: "The track of 2013's EF5 tornado in Moore, Okla., is overlaid on ZIP codes in Cook County, Ill." (Photo: Swiss Re).
Map credit: The Annie E. Casey Foundation.
Image credit above: David Sparshott.
TODAY: Blue sky, low humidity, beautiful. Dew point: 51. Winds: NE 8. HIgh: 79
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and comfortable. Low: 60 (50s in the outlying suburbs).
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, PM T-storms likely. High: 79
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and warmer. Wake-up: 64. High: 82
SATURDAY: Hazy sun, lake-worthy. Dew point: 63 Wake-up: 66. High: 87
SUNDAY: Sunny start, PM thunder risk. Wake-up: 67. High: 81
MONDAY: Mix of clouds & sun, less humid. Wake-up: 60. High: 77
TUESDAY: Summer on hold again. Comfortable, clouds slowly build. Wake-up: 57. High: 76
- Allowing business-as-usual emissions trends to continue endangers the future orderly development of human civilization in the 21st century.
- Achieving a low emissions world and fostering sustainable development go hand in hand.
- Meeting the 2 C degree warming limit will require drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades, but few countries have analyzed the implications of such reductions for their economies, and few politicians have fully understood those implications..."
Photo credit above: "The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005, the most expensive disaster in recent history according to the UN." Photograph: Larry W Smith/EPA.