70 F. average high on September 19.
78 F. high on September 19, 2013.
September 19, 2001: 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail fell in Freeborn and Faribault counties.
September 19, 1972: Downpour in Duluth, with 5 1/2 inches in ten hours.
I just sold my snowmobiles. Part of the reason: My kids are out of the house and I'm getting old - I don't want to injure myself in a freak ditch-riding melee. But I'm also starting to wonder if we'll see less snow than average next winter. Please, let me rationalize my decision.
Confidence levels are (very) low looking that far out, but Media Logic Group forensic meteorologist D.J. Kayser made a very interesting discovery: during mild El Nino winters, with a temperature anomaly of .5C warmer than average, MSP snowfall is nearly half of normal. That means 25 inches versus 55 inches. We still seem to be limping into a mild to moderate El Nino. We'll see.
Take it with a king-size grain of salt, but every one of NOAA's long-range climate models, with acronyms like NMME, IMME and CFS (Climate Forecast System), show Minnesota and most of North America trending slightly milder than average from December into February. So the odds of another winter tracking a stalled polar vortex are small. But not zero.
Morning sun gives way to instability showers this afternoon. Sunday looks like the sunnier, drier day with highs in the 60s.
More showers arrive next Wednesday, otherwise next week looks seasonably mild and mostly-dry. Models hint at highs near 80F late next week with a mild bias into early October.
Map credit above: "The parts of the world that were warmer-than-average this past summer are seen in red and pink on this map, while places that were cooler-than-average (such as the eastern U.S.) are seen in blue." (Photo: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center)
Family Describes "Nightmare Experience" in Cabo. Q13fox.com has the harrowing details.
Americans Trapped in Cabo Describe Desperation, Danger. NBC News has the story.
* the latest U.S. Drought Monitor is here.
TODAY: Sunny start, PM showers pop up, possibly a T-storm. Gusty. Winds: NW 15+ High: 74
SATURDAY NIGHT: Evening showers, then slow clearing. Low: 52
SUNDAY: More sun, cool breeze. Winds: NW 15. High: 68
MONDAY: Lot's of sunshine, less wind. Wake-up: 46. High: 69
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, still pleasant. Wake-up: 48. High: 72
WEDNESDAY: Showers likely. Cool & damp. Wake-up: 58. High: 65
THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, turning milder. Wake-up: 59. High: 74
FRIDAY: August rerun. Warm breeze. Wake-up: 62. HIgh: 81
Map credit: Gurney Labs.
Map credit: National Geographic 2014. http://www.nationalgeographic.com/west-snow-fail/
Photo credit above: " " Photograph: Ian Langsdon/EPA .