60 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.
65 F. average high on October 2.
77 F. high on October 2, 2013.
.75" rain fell yesterday at MSP International Airport.
1.45" rain fell October 1-2 in the Twin Cities.
October 2, 1999: Earliest ever single digit temperature in Minnesota for Fall. Embarrass had a low of 9 degrees.
October 2, 1922: Hot fall day. 95 in Ada and 93 at Moorhead.
Say It Ain't Snow
This
is a test. This is only a test. Mother Nature will test your sense of
humor this weekend. Are you stoic - do you take things in stride, or do
you agonize over things you can't change?
Only in Minnesota, Land
of 10,000 Weather Extremes, is it possible to go from 82F and sunburn on
a Sunday to slushy snow, heavy jackets and scattered scowls five days
later. Each successive computer run is colder and wetter for tonight
& early Saturday Saturday; the freezing level forecast to be low
enough for wet snow to mix in with the rain, even as far south as the
Twin Cities.
Before you unleash a primal scream consider that
ground temperatures are still in the 50s. Any snow that mixes in late
tonight will probably melt on contact. That said, a coating of slush is
possible near St. Cloud; maybe 1 inch of premature snow from Wadena to
Bemidji by Saturday morning.
Have a nice day.
This weekend
would feel right at home in early November with highs in the 40s and a
jacket-worthy wind chill. A stiff breeze may prevent widespread metro
frost until Wednesday morning.
And yes, it's early to be babbling about snow. At MSP the first measurable snow usually comes November 4.
Is another bitter winter imminent? Not necessarily. Stay upbeat.
Not Buying It.
I think a few snowflakes will mix with rain showers tonight, but with
mild ground temperatures any snow should melt on contact in the Twin
Cities. Will we wake up to a coating of slush at MSP Saturday morning?
Possible, but I doubt it. The National Weather Service is predicting .4"
of slush late tonight. If soil temperatures weren't so high I might be
convinced. Graphic: Iowa State.
Slushy Lawns North/East of MSP.
NOAA's NAM model suggests a slushy half inch or inch from near Bemidji
to Spooner and Hayward later tonight and early Saturday. Too early to
dust off the snowmobile.
Instability Showers Arrive Tonight - Mixing With Wet Snow Late.
NOAA's 4 km NAM model shows a dry, windy start giving way to another
surge of showers pushing from the Red River Valley into the metro;
temperatures aloft cold enough for a little wet snow to mix in, but
relatively warm ground temperatures should prevent a premature case of
shock and awe Saturday morning. Future radar: HAMweather.
Today: Windiest Day.
Models suggest sustained winds up around 20 mph today, with gusts as
high as 35 mph as high velocity jet stream winds work their way down to
ground level. Highs hold in the 30s Saturday, Sunday and Monday before
slowly moderating next week; European guidance hinting at 60+ readings
by Thursday. As winds subside under a high pressure bubble the best
chance of a metro-wide frost may be Sunday morning.
* Twin Cities
Marathon Weather: partly to mostly cloudy, breezy (but not as windy as
today) with temperatures rising from the upper 30s into the 40s. No heat
exhausion risk this year.
Negative Phase of QBO.
What the heck is the QBO? It's the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, winds in
the upper reaches of the atmosphere that correlate with where blocking
patterns tend to set up over time. Last winter we experienced a strongly
positive phase of the QBO, this year the phase trend is negative. Thus
my suspicion (hope?) that we won't have another winter with a
temporarily stalled Polar Vortex. More background on QBO
here. Tweet courtesy of WSI.
Long-Range Winter Model Guidance.
Although we can't predict specific weather for a specific date much
beyond 7-10 days, it is possible to distinguish broad trends. The suite
of various climate models above, valid December - February) show a
uniformly milder than average bias for most of the North America during
the heart of winter. Model data: NOAA NCEP.
Too Early For Snow Statistics.
Wasn't it just in the 80s? I'm still recovering from a late-season
sunburn and now I have to jam in snow statistics? Not. Right. Soil
temperatures are still in the 50s, so any wet snow that does fall late
Friday night and early Saturday will probably melt on contact around the
Twin Cities. But from St. Cloud to Brainerd? A little slush is possible
there, maybe an inch or so near Bemidji.
St. Cloud Stats.
Last year the first flurries in St. Cloud were observed on October 19,
nearly 1" of snow fell on the 20th. That's ahead of schedule. Long-term
NOAA records show first measurable snow, on average, is November 7, the
first 1"+ of snow not until November 18.
September Moisture Recap. I found this map from the
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
to be interesting; 53rd wettest September since 1893 for east central
Minnesota, inicluding the Twin Cities, but the 3rd wettest of the last
122 years for the Green Bay area, southwwestern South Dakota and second
wettest on record for the Nebraska Panhandle.
* The Minnesota DNR has more details about September
here.
Andrew Revkin Is Coming to Minnesota. Author of The New York Times's Dot Earth content, Revkin will be presenting at the
University of Minnesota - St. Paul Student Center Theater next Tuesday, and all are welcome to attend. More details: "
The
Annual Kuhenast Lecture in Atmospheric and Climate Science is scheduled
for October 7th, 3 p.m. at the St. Paul Campus Student Center theater.
The 22nd Annual Kuehnast Lecture will feature author, musician, and
award-winning journalist Andrew Revkin of The New York Times and Pace
University. Revkin is known widely as the founder of the Dot Earth blog.
His lecture, "The New Communication Climate," will explore issues and
opportunities arising as both the environment and the news media
experience an era of unprecedented and unpredictable change.
Refreshments will follow the program."
No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola? NPR has a reassuring story - here's an excerpt: "...
Why is Frieden so sure this virus won't spread beyond a handful of cases? It boils down to something called "R0."
The reproduction number, or "R nought," is a mathematical term that
tells you how contagious an infectious disease is. Specifically, it's
the number of people who catch the disease from one sick person, on
average, in an outbreak.* Take, for example, measles. The virus is one
of the most contagious diseases known to man. It's R0 sits around 18..." (Image credit: Adam Cole, NPR).
"Smart" Bandage Glows To Indicate How Well Wounds Are Healing. I still want my flying car and robotic butler, but I guess this will have to suffice for "progress" in the near term.
Gizmag.com has the story - here's an excerpt: "
When
a person's skin is burnt or otherwise injured, part of the body's
healing process involves boosting oxygen levels in the damaged tissue.
If doctors treating such injuries know how high those levels are, then
they can determine how quickly and thoroughly the skin is healing. In
order to help them obtain that information without having to remove the
wound dressing, an international team of scientists has created a
glowing paint-on bandage..."
Ultimate Coffee Fan Spends 17 Years Visiting Every Starbucks In The World.
I'm feeling better about my coffee addiction; and I really want to sign
up for a similar gig. Maybe visit every sugar-sand beach in the world?
Who's funding this caffeine-infused junket? Sign me up. Here's an
excerpt from
The Telegraph:
"A
coffee fan from Texas has spent more than $100,000 visiting 11,733
Starbucks across six different continents, although he admids he
wouldn't recommend the coffee. Winter, who has legally changed his name
from Rafael Lozano, came up with the idea while sitting at a Starbucks
in Plano, Texas, in 1997..."
Photo credit above: "Winter has visited 11, 733 Starbucks so far."
Who's Real Enough for Facebook? You
just can't make this stuff up. I want to hear more about Lil Miss Hot
Mess though, I have to admit. Here's a clip from a story at
The New Yorker: "
In
early September, some well-known drag queens in San Francisco, Sister
Roma and Lil Miss Hot Mess, received startling messages from Facebook.
Their accounts had been suspended because they were using their drag
names, which Facebook didn’t consider “real.” Facebook has, since its
inception, in 2004, required that people use their “real names” on the
site—by Facebook’s definition, this means using your name “as it would
be listed on your credit card, driver’s license or student ID...”
Photo credit above: "
Lil Miss Hot Mess, Sister Roma, and Heklin speaking about their battle with Facebook during a news conference in San Francisco."
Credit Photograph by Eric Risberg/AP.
"Invisaband" Bracelet Claimed To Make You Undetectable to Mosquitoes.
A cloaking device for skeeters? I know, I'll believe it when I see it.
Now if you can just modify this to work with spouses and in-laws. Here's
a clip from
Gizmag: "
Lathering
yourself in smelly, mosquito-repelling lotions might not be ideal, but
it's better than those itchy red swellings that pop up on any skin left
exposed .... not to mention the fact that these blood-sucking pests are
better than most when it comes to spreading deadly diseases, such as
malaria. The Invisaband is a bracelet that releases a natural oil
claimed to confuse a mosquito's senses, saving you from their irritable
bites and the need to apply layers of oily repellents..."
TODAY: Very windy and raw with mainly PM showers. Winds: NW 25+ High: 48
FRIDAY NIGHT:
Rain may mix with a little wet snow in the metro. Some slush may
accumulate on lawns/fields from near St. Cloud to Brainerd and Bemidji
late. Low: 36
SATURDAY: Hello November! Mostly cloudy with a stiff breeze. High: 47
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, still brisk. Wake-up: 35. High: near 50
MONDAY: Clouds linger - chilly. Wake-up: 37. High: 49
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. No sign of October. Wake-up: 38. High: 50
WEDNESDAY: Frosty start. More sun, less wind. Wake-up: 31. High: 59
THURSDAY: Fading sun, more seasonable. Wake-up: 48. High: 62
* Photo credit above: Heidi Rusch in Minnetonka.
Climate Stories...
When Can A Big Storm or Drought Be Blamed on Climate Change?
A critically important question: what are random (normal) swings in
wild weather vs. extremes turbocharged by a warmer, wetter climate?
Here's an excerpt from an interesting article at
NPR: "...
That
sort of discernment is difficult, so scientists have had a rule, a kind
of mantra: You can't attribute any single weather event to climate
change. It could just be weird weather. Then they took a close at last
year's heat wave in Australia. The chances that the continent's extreme
temperatures reflected normal variation is "almost impossible," says Peter Stott,
a climate scientist at the Hadley Center of the Met Office, in Exeter,
Great Britain. "It's hard to imagine how you would have had those
temperatures without climate change," he says. Stott is one of a group
of researchers analyzing the patterns of "extreme weather" events in the
past and comparing them with the patterns Earth is experiencing now.
The intensity of last year's Australian heat wave was statistically "off
the charts," he says. Climate change had to be behind it..." (Image: Environment America).
Climate Change Is Threatening Our Health. Here's an excerpt from a physician's Op-Ed at
thestar.com: "
In
2009, the Lancet called climate change the “biggest global health
threat of the 21st century.” Many physicians, myself included, were
surprised by this diagnosis. Bigger than cancer? Heart disease? Really?
Since then floods have flattened crops and swamped cities, putting more
people at risk of trauma, food insecurity, displacement and mental
health issues. Heat waves have exhausted our elderly, Lyme disease is
marching across our country and wildfires tore through forests near my
home in Yellowknife, filling our skies with gloomy smoke and our ER with
wheezy, breathless people. Climate change is shifting health problems
that we already struggle with the wrong way on the probability curve..."
Photo credit above: Mel Evans, AP. "
Thousands
of demonstrators filled the streets of Manhattan to participate in a
climate change march on Sept. 21, 2014, urging policy-makers to take
action."
Louisiana Is Disappearing Into The Sea. New Republic takes a look at land subsidence and rising seas impacting the vanishing marshlands of Louisiana; here's a clip: "...
Louisiana is disappearing. Since 1932, the Gulf of Mexico
has swallowed 2,300 square miles of the state’s wetlands, an area
larger than Delaware. If no action is taken, the missing Delaware will
become a missing Connecticut, and then a missing Vermont. The loss of
the marshes has catastrophic implications, because they are the state’s
first, and strongest, defense against hurricanes..."
Canada To Start First Carbon-Capture Coal Power Plant. It remains to be seen whether coal-fired CO2 can be cost-effectively buried deep underground. Here's an excerpt from
Bloomberg: "
Canada is poised to open the first large-scale power plant that will burn coal while cutting carbon emissions
by 90 percent, part of an effort to continue the use of fossil fuels
without worsening global warming. SaskPower International Inc.,
Saskatchewan’s province-owned utility, will officially start the C$1.35
billion ($1.2 billion) Boundary Dam power plant tomorrow, said Tyler
Hopson, a spokesman for the company. The 110-megawatt project will cut
carbon dioxide emissions by about 1 million metric tons annually, by
trapping it before it enters the atmosphere and pumping it underground..." (File photo: Wikipedia).
We Don't Need Perfect Knowledge To Act on Climate Change. A couple of distinguished climate scientists respond to a recent Op-Ed in
The Wall Street Journal; here's an excerpt: "...
Uncertainties
in projections of 21st century climate change shouldn't be an excuse
for policy inaction. The longer we delay concerted action to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases, the more difficult it will be to avoid
dangerous interference with the climate system. Time is a luxury we
don't have. We welcome the constructive collaboration of the physics
community in improving our understanding of the human fingerprint on
climate..."
How Will Climate Change Affect Fall Foliage? Modern Farmer takes a look at how shifting seasons are impacting the timing and intensity of peak fall color; here's the introduction: "
Researchers at Princeton University recently took a deep dive
into the lovely autumnal colors of the Northeast and Midwest with an
eye on climate change. They found that as the planet heats up, fall
foliage will respond in messy, unpredictable ways — and that as a whole,
leaves will begin changing color later and the period in which bright
orange, red and yellow leaves stay on trees will last longer. But even
though tourists in Vermont may celebrate, it’s important to note that
the researchers’ findings indicate changes that could extend beyond fall
photo ops. Trees, as it turns out, are the canary in the coal mine..."
Antarctica Has Lost Enough Ice To Cause A Measurable Shift in Gravity. Here's a clip from a story at Slate and
WIRED: "...
The
biggest implication is the new measurements confirm global warming is
changing the Antarctic in fundamental ways. Earlier this year, a separate team of scientists announced
that major West Antarctic glaciers have begun an “unstoppable”
“collapse,” committing global sea levels to a rise of several meters
over the next few hundred years. Though we all learned in high-school
physics that gravity is a constant, it actually varies slightly
depending on where you are on the Earth’s surface and the density of the
rock (or, in this case, ice) beneath your feet..."
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