57 F. average high on October 19.
49 F. high on October 19, 2013.
October 19 in MInnesota Weather History:
2002: Heavy snow across central Minnesota. It fell in a 10-20 mile wide band from southeast North Dakota to around Grantsburg Wisconsin. Little Falls picked up nine inches.
1916: Snow fell in south central Minnesota with 4.5 inches recorded in New Ulm, 4 inches in Farmington and Hutchinson, 3.5 inches in Montevideo, and 3 inches in Faribault.
1835: 6 inches of snow fell at Ft. Snelling.
How can you get a slight edge on predicting the winter to come? Nutty squirrels? Colorful caterpillars? Aunt Mabel's annoying bursitis? An analog forecast looks at previous years when weather was vaguely similar. "The maps are similar to 2006 and here's what happened that winter". It's a start, but every pattern is slightly different.
We factor everything from ocean water temperatures to melting arctic ice, looking at blocking patterns with acronyms like PDO, NAO & AO. And we wait for a sustained El Nino warming signal to finally kick in over the Pacific, which tends to keep much of the USA downwind a bit milder; wetter and stormier from the Gulf to the East Coast.
The last 2 winters brought more than 67 inches of snow in the metro. 3 years ago: a paltry 22.3 inches. My hunch? We wind up with average snowfall (in the 50s) with fewer subzero attacks - a bargain compared to last winter.
Showers don't return until late Wednesday and Thursday; otherwise a bloated ridge of high pressure treats us to Indian Summer into much of next week. 5-6 more days above 60F, maybe a day above 70F next week?
With all the bad news floating around I'm happy the weather is cutting us a break.
New England Nor'Easter - Heavy Rain Lashes Pacific Northest. GFS data also shows possible tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, possibly brushing south Florida before pushing into the Atlantic. Relatively warm weather lingers from southern California into the Plains and Mid South. Loop: NOAA.
This will be a black tie dinner event that includes guest speakers; Paul Douglas, local meteorologist, Steve Flagg (President QBP), Matt Andrews (International Mountain Bicycling Association) and Libby Hurley (MN High School Mountain Bike League) as well as live and silent auctions to support MORC’s efforts moving forward. Also excited to announce "The Lost Wheels" providing live musical entertainment for the evening!
Tickets are now on sale here: bit.ly/morcGALA
TODAY: Plenty of sun, cool breeze. Winds: NW 15. High: 60
MONDAY NIGHT Clear and cool. Low: 39
TUESDAY: Blue sky, still pleasant. High: 59
WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, PM showers. Wake-up: 41. High: near 60
THURSDAY: Showers slowly taper, cool and damp. Wake-up: 48. High: 57
FRIDAY: More mild sunshine. Wake-up: 44. High: 63
SATURDAY: Sunny, still spectacular. Wake-up: 47. High: 64
SUNDAY: Weather on hold. Sunny, less wind, a bit cooler. Wake-up: 39. High: 60
Image credit above: "These are just some of the indicators measured globally over many decades that show the earth's climate is warming. Red arrows indicate increacing trends, blaok arrows indicate decreasing trends. All the indicators expected to increase in a warming world are increasing, and all those expected to decrease in a warming world are decreasing."
Photo credit above: " Marc Lester / ADN archive.
File Image Credit: "In this Aug. 6, 2011 file photo, a natural gas well operated by Northeast Natural Energy is seen in Morgantown, W.Va. Cheap and plentiful natural gas isn’t quite a bridge to a brighter energy future as claimed and won’t slow global warming, a new study projects. Abundant natural gas in the United States has been displacing coal, which produces more of the chief global warming gas carbon dioxide. But the new international study says an expansion of natural gas use by 2050 would also keep other energy-producing technologies like wind, solar and nuclear, from being used more. And those technologies are even better than natural gas for avoiding global warming." (AP Photo/David Smith)