Thanks to my good friend and colleague for the wonderful picture
below. Enjoy those fall colors while you can... they're going fast!
Helicopter Parents
By Paul Douglas
Parenting: the most important job on the planet. And the only one that doesn't come with a training manual.
There's
a lot of digital angst out there today. How much play time on smart
phones, tablets and apps is too much? "Step away from the device!"
My
youngest son loved video games, especially aviation-related
simulations. Today he flies Navy MH-60R Seahawk helicopters for a
living. "Dad, you may think I'm nuts but playing those games helped with
with my fine motor skills, hand-eye coordination and multitasking. It
prepared me for this challenge" he assured me. We didn't see that
coming, but it did help our parental guilt pangs.
This is about as
cool as it gets looking out 1-2 weeks. The weather models I study (and
trust to some degree) maintain a big long wave ridge of high pressure
over the Rockies and Plains, diverting the core of the jet stream to our
north, bottling up any nasty-cold over central Canada until further
notice. More 60s are on tap tomorrow, and by late next week another
70-degree high is likely. Odds favor 50s for Halloween; any true cold
pangs pushed deeper into November. An omen? We'll see, but I suspect
this winter won't look anything like last.
===============
FRIDAY NIGHT: Still cloudy and breezy. Low: 40
SATURDAY: More sun, less wind. Brisk. High: 53
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear, cool and quiet. Low: 38
SUNDAY: Some sun, warmer breeze. High: 64
MONDAY: Blue sky, a bit cooler. Wake-up: 43. High: 58.
TUESDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake-up: 40. High: 59
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, touch of September. Wake-up: 39. High: 62
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still quiet. Wake-up: 48. High: 64
FRIDAY: OMG. More Indian Summer. Wake-up: 49. High: 70.
=================
This Day in Weather History
October 18th
1950:
Record high temperatures were set across the area as highs reached the
mid to upper 80s. Minneapolis and Farmington saw highs of 87 degrees
Fahrenheit, while Albert Lea reached 86 degrees.
1916: Blizzard over Minnesota. Hallock's temp is in the 60's. Drops to 2 above by the 20th.
==================
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 18th
Average High: 57F (87F set in 1950)
Average Low: 39F (18F set in 1972)
===================
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 18th
Sunrise: 7:32am
Sunset: 6:23pm
===================
Moon Phase for October 18th at Midnight
3.5 Days After Last Quarter
====================
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Looking
at the temperature trend ahead, we stay a bit on the cool side this
weekend and through early next week, but looking ahead to the end of
next week/weekend we warm up nicely. Weather models suggest a large
ridge of high pressure building in over the central U.S. which will have
mostly dry and warm conditions in place for several days.
======================
Saturday Weather Outlook
After
a fairly cool and breezy Friday, weather conditions on Saturday will
improve just a little. The wind won't be quite as bad, but it will still
be Fall-like. Highs in the northern half of the state will be stuck in
the 40s, while we'll rebound into the 50s across the southern part of
the state.
National Weather Outlook
Our
fast moving clipper system that brought cool and breezy conditions on
Friday will continue to quickly move east over the weekend. In it's
wake, a cool Canadian high pressure system will work in on Saturday and
bring cool/dry weather to the Midwest. Another fast moving clipper looks
to scoot through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and bring a few showers
to far northern Minnesota by Sunday. Nationally, there are no big
storms in the forecast in the foreseeable future.
Nationally Quiet
According
to NOAA's HPC, the 3 day rainfall forecast doesn't suggest much in
terms of heavy rainfall potential across the Continental U.S.. We're in a
fairly quiet weather patter right now with the jet stream (upper level
winds) zigging and zagging from north to south across the country. This
is keeping weather patterns nearly stagnant from day to day.
Upper Level Winds (High Amplitude)
The
500mb vorticity map by early next week shows how winds in the upper
levels of the atmosphere will be positioned by then. Note the 2
prominent dips; #1 on the West Coast and #2 near the Great Lakes. These
are areas of cooler, cloudier and unsettled weather, but in the middle
there is a ridge of high pressure that will keep weather conditions
across the Rockies/Plains States mostly dry, quiet and warmer.
Temperature Outlook
The
temperature outlook a few thousand feet off the ground (850mb) by early
next week coincides with the map above (500mb vorticity chart). Note
where the troughs and ridge are positioned in comparison to that of the
temperature profile below. As we head into the second half of October,
this ridge of warmer/drier weather looks to slowly push east and take up
residence in the central U.S. by the middle/end of next week... warmer
weather is once again on the way.
Tracking Gonzalo
Gonzalo
was still a major category 3 hurricane (sustained winds of 130mph) by
daybreak Friday as it loomed nearly 200 miles south of Bermuda. Gonzalo
was comparable to that of Hurricane Fabian, which hit the island on
August 5, 2003 with sustained winds of nearly 120mph.
Gonzalo is
the only the 7th named storm of the 2014 Hurricane Season. Here were the
predictions from earlier this year about the hurricane season:
"Predictions:
April
10, 2014 - Forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado
State University release their 2014 hurricane season predictions: nine
named storms and three hurricanes, one of them major.
May
22, 2014 - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
forecasts a near-normal or below-normal hurricane season, predicting
that there is a 70 percent chance of having eight to 13 named storms, of
which three to six could develop into hurricanes, including one to two
major hurricanes (categories 3-5)."
Read more from CNN.com HERE:
Bermuda Webcam
I
wanted to add a webcam from the Bermuda Weather Service, but when I
pulled it up, this is what I found! Interestingly, Tropical Storm Fay
earlier in the week caused some damage on the island and the webcam
wasn't working...
Tracking Gonzalo Cont.
The
good news is that Gonzalo's pace will expedited by stronger upper level
winds. Weather conditions will continue to improve over the weekend, so
cleanup efforts on the island should be ok.
Tracking Ana in the Central Pacific
As
of early Friday morning, Ana was a high end Tropical Storm with
sustained winds of 70mph as it loomed off the SE coast of the Big Island
of Hawaii. Tracking NW, Ana will have impacts across the entire
Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
"HONOLULU (AP) — A powerful
Pacific storm predicted to grow to hurricane force churned toward
Hawaii, bringing with it heavy rains and potentially destructive winds
that could begin hitting the state later Friday.
Forecasters said that the storm likely will bring 40 to 50 mph winds to the Big Island's Kau, Puna and South Kona districts.
"Right
now, we expect the main impacts to be on the Big Island," National
Weather Service meteorologist Ray Tanabe said Thursday. The weather
service has issued a tropical storm watch for the island."
Read more from HuffingtonPost.com HERE:
Tracking Ana Cont.
The
track of Ana has shifted a bit south... while impacts on the island may
not be quite as significant as they could have been, a potential
category one storm just south of the Islands will still cause some
commotion.
Strong
winds, heavy rainfall and large surf will all be contributing factors
to a somewhat ugly weekend in Hawaii. The Central Pacific Hurricane
Center has more on the specific threats:
1,200 Lbs Pumpkin Drop??
And
for those of you who like watching metal get crushed... how about this!
It's a 1,200 Lbs. pumpkin drop onto a truck at the Conneaut Lake Park
Pumpkin Fest in Pennsylvania.
Check out the video HERE:
Green Comet Buzzes Red Planet
"On
Sunday, Oct. 19th, Comet Siding Spring will pass only 140,000 km away
from Mars. For comparison, that's about 1/3rd the distance between Earth
and the Moon. For a while last year, astronomers thought the comet
might actually hit Mars, setting off a cataclysmic climate change
experiment, but now we know it's going to be a near miss. Last night,
only three days before closest approach, astrophotographer Damian Peach
snapped this picture:"
Read more from SpaceWeather.com HERE:
Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
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