Fall Color Peaking in Southern MN
What a
stunning picture from my good friend and colleague, D.J. Kayser for the
picture below. Whitewater State Park is located near the Mississippi
River Valley in southeast Minnesota between Rochester and Winona. Looks
like the colors are coming along just great! Thanks for the picture
D.J.!!
MN Fall Color Update
According
to the MN DNR, most of northern MN is past peak, but the southern part
of the state is peaking now! Get out there and enjoy it while you can...
it won't be long before we're in for bare trees for a several month
period. Unfortunately, the gusty winds on Friday will be stripping a lot
of the beautiful color off those trees.
Facts About Fabulous Fall Foliage
NOAA has a good write up about why leaves change color...
"A
favorite American pastime in fall is to pack a picnic basket and set
off with loved ones on a Sunday drive along one of the nation’s many
scenic byways. It’s a time of year when people enjoy crisp cool weather
and marvel at the transforming landscape as tree leaves turn from lush
green to gorgeous shades of yellow, orange, red, purple and brown.
While
we relish the opportunity to frolic in a big pile of freshly raked
leaves, we don’t often think about the science behind why leaves change
color and eventually fall from their branches. The answer may surprise
you!"
Read more from NOAA HERE:
Future Tense
By Paul Douglas
I should have become an historian. Because documenting the past has to be easier than predicting the future.
I
often remind local news legend Don Shelby that you could dress a monkey
in a sport coat, smiling at a Teleprompter, to tell you what already
happened.
I want to see Randy Shaver over at KARE-11 predict
tomorrow's news headlines, based on current events and trends across
Minnesota. My friend Mark Rosen's "Sports 7-Day" at WCCO should include
daily score forecasts for upcoming Wild, Gophers & Timberwolves
games. Wait, there's a phrase for that. Las Vegas.
Meteorologists
choose from hundreds of weather models. What to believe, when? A
consensus of models, an "ensemble", show warm ridging from the Rockies
into the Midwest for the next 1-2 weeks. That means a continued mild
bias for the western 2/3rd's of America; chilly intrusions of Canadian
air limited to New England.
We cool off Friday but winds ease
Saturday; a fleeting shower Sunday. The pattern isn't ripe for big
storms of any flavor anytime soon. ECMWF data shows more 60s in a week;
no Siberian Spankings shaping up into early November.
Beyond that the crystal ball gets a bit murky. Hey Shelby, help me out!
==============
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A little warmer. Low: 48.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, windy & cooler. PM shower (mainly up north). High: 55. Winds: WNW 15-25mph
FRIDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds late. Still breezy. Low: 39
SATURDAY: More sun, less wind. Brisk. High: 54
SUNDAY: More clouds. Isolated PM Shower. Wake-up: 41. High: 60
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up: 45. High: 58.
TUESDAY: Indian Summer. The Sequel. Wake-up: 41. High: 60
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still very nice! Wake-up: 45. High: 63
THURSDAY: Sunny start, late shower? Wake-up: 47. High: 59
==============
This Day in Weather History
October 17th
1971: Heavy rains in NW Minnesota. 4.02" at Georgetown (20 miles N of Moorhead).
1952:
Record lows were reported across central Minnesota with lows from 10 to
15 degrees, including a low of 10 degrees at St. Cloud, 12 degrees at
Glenwood, and 14 degrees at Alexandria, Litchfield, and Mora.
==============
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 17th
Average High: 58F (Record: 84 set in 1910)
Average Low: 39F (Record: 22 set in 1952,1948)
==============
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 17th
Sunrise: 7:31am
Sunset: 6:25pm
==============
Moon Phase for October 17th at Midnight
2.5 Days After Last Quarter
==============
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
I
hope you enjoyed your Thursday! Another fairly strong cold front moving
through the Upper Midwest late this week will help to tug down
additional cold air for Friday/weekend ahead with temperatures
struggling to get to 60F even into the early part of next week. However,
upper level winds will begin to bubble north by the middle and end of
next week, which should allow for some 60s and perhaps even 70s to
return for several days late next week... Stay tuned!
===================
Last 70+ Degree Day for Minneapolis
Thanks to my good friend and colleague D.J.
Weather Outlook Friday
A
fairly stout cold front will blast through the Upper Midwest late this
week with a shot of cooler weather behind it. The images below show
weather conditions on Friday, which look MUCH cooler than Thursday. Note
high temperatures on Friday across northern Minnesota may only make it
into the 40s! Keep in mind that winds behind the front look quite
breezy/gusty, so it'll feel even cooler. You might want to bring an
extra layer along with you as you head out the door Friday!
Precipitation Potential
Precipitation
doesn't look all that impressive, but more clouds and spits of rain
will be possible through the day Friday with very light accumulations
expected mainly across the northeastern part of the state. Cool, breezy
and somewhat damp skies will be a rude, fall awakening after such a
beautiful day Thursday.
Weather Outlook
This
fast moving clipper-like system expected to blast through the Upper
Midwest late week will quickly move out by the weekend, but colder
temperatures will linger. Note the wintry mix potential at the end of
the loop below in the Arrowhead of MN and the U.P. of Michigan late
Friday night/early Saturday morning. Nationally, weather conditions on
the West Coast and East Coast will be a little more unsettled, while
folks in the Rockies and Plains States will be enjoying warm and dry
weather.
Precipitation Past 7 Days
Severe
weather was a big talker earlier this week with several hail, high wind
and tornado reports. However, rainfall was another big story with some
spots in the central U.S. seeing nearly 5" or more over the last 7 days.
Interestingly, it appears that most locations across the country saw at
least a little moisture except the Desert Southwest; a place that
REALLY needs moisture!
National Precipitation
Here's
another look at the national precipitation, however, this shows the
precipitation so far this year (top) and the departure from
normal (bottom). Note that some of the heaviest precipitation shows up
in the eastern half the U.S. and also in parts (mountains/coast) of the
western U.S.. As you would expect some of the least precipitation is
found in the Desert Southwest, but according to the departure from
average, some areas are nearly 15" to 20" below average!
U.S. Drought Monitor
The recent update from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows the worst drought still affecting the Western U.S./California.
"In
a repeat of last week, yet another large weather system moved across
the country’s midsection, bringing copious rains to the central Plains,
middle Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley, with 3-6 inches
being a regular occurrence. Parts of the Pacific Northwest also enjoyed
some nice moisture during the week. As for temperatures, most of the
West and South saw well above normal temperatures, with readings 6 to 12
degrees above the norm. Unseasonably cooler weather was confined mostly
to the northern and central Plains along with the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes regions."
Looking Ahead
For
the period October 15-20, after seeing a very wet pattern the past few
weeks across the country’s mid-section, there should finally be some
time to dry out and let the harvesting resume. The only areas showing
good chances for heavier precipitation are in the coastal ranges and
mountains in the Pacific Northwest, primarily from northern Oregon up
into Canada. The other area expecting good rains is from the
Mid-Atlantic up into New England, where 1-3 inches should bring some
relief to the region. As for temperatures, most of the West, Pacific
Northwest and the Great Plains states are expecting to see unseasonably
warm temperatures, with readings likely running 3-6 degrees
above-normal.
Looking at the 6- to 10-day time frame
(October 21-25), the warm temperature trend continues into this period,
and the entire western two-thirds of the country and most of Alaska are
expected to see above-normal temperatures, with the strongest likelihood
falling in the High Plains and along the Rocky Front Range from
Colorado and Wyoming up into Montana. The bulls-eye for cooler than
normal weather is found in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and within the
Mid-Atlantic from Georgia northward into New Jersey. A greater
likelihood of above-normal precipitation over this period is confined to
the Pacific Northwest, Four Corners, southern Florida and the New
England coastline. However, a large area of the country from the Great
Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
Tennessee Valley and the western fringes of the Mid-Atlantic can expect
it to be dry, with the highest probability falling from the Great Lakes
down to the Gulf Coast along the Mississippi Valley."
EXCEPTIONAL Drought in California Continues
There
was no change to the drought conditions across California from last
week as nearly 60% of the state is in an Exceptional Drought.
California Drought Continues
A lack of moisture is effecting the current/future of pumpkins in California...
"California's pumpkin crop
Most
pumpkins are grown on smaller farms. And they don't go far from the
fields. Despite their tough exterior, pumpkins bruise easily and are
rarely shipped across state lines. Most are sold locally.
In fact—Halloween jack-o'-lanterns aside—the bulk of the pumpkin crop is used for canned pie filling.
But
it is time consuming to grow pumpkins. The season lasts from April to
October and planting requires feeding, worries that the crop can grow
too fast before harvest and constant spraying for insects.
"The irrigation system helped keep the soil moist but it led to a lot more bugs," Perry said.
"When you sprinkle water normally you get less bugs but then you get more weeds," he added. "It's a constant battle."
Other
crops feeling the heat from the California drought include, hay, wheat,
olives and corn. Livestock deaths have increased due to lack of water
in the state."
Read more from NBCNews HERE:
Tracking Gonzalo
The
first major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season blew up to a
category 4 storm early Thursday with sustained winds up to 140mph! The
loop below shows the Thursday sunrise over Gonzalo when it was located
about 525 miles SSW of Bermuda.
Tracking Gonzalo Cont.
According
to NOAA's NHC, Gonzalo is expected to track nearly directly over the
small island of Bermuda as a potential major hurricane on Friday...
Bracing in Bermuda...
Here's
a little closer look at the forecast path of Gonzalo as it tracks
towards Bermuda on Friday. Note the path is just west of the Island on
Friday afternoon/evening. Unfortunately, the worst part of the storm is
typically on the front right, which is where the island sits and could
potentially be in the worst part of the storm then.
The forecast winds by PM Friday suggest nearly +100mph winds buffeting island, which could cause major/widespread damage...
"Watch out Bermuda, here comes Hurricane Gonzalo.
The
powerful system strengthened to a Category 4 storm early Thursday as it
churned through the North Atlantic with wind speeds of 140 miles per
hour, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.
The
storm is expected to brush Bermuda on Friday, but Gonzalo's path could
still vary enough that officials aren't ruling out a direct hit on the
island.
Bermuda is now under a hurricane warning. Gonzalo
is expected to cause powerful, gusty winds, heavy rains of up to 6
inches and flooding as it closes in."
Read more from CNN.com HERE:
Tracking Ana
As
of early AM Thursday, Ana in the Central Pacific was still a Tropical
Storm with sustained winds of 60mph. The forecast has Ana moving into
the Hawaiian Islands as a potential category 1 hurricane by the weekend.
Tracking Ana Cont.
Here's
the forecast track for Ana, which shows the center of the storm south
of the Big Island by Saturday. Heavy rains, gusty winds, large surf and
high elevation snow will all be possible this weekend as Ana moves in.
"HONOLULU
—State, city and county officials are urging Hawaii residents be
prepared for strong winds, heavy rain and potential power outages this
weekend as Ana moves closer to the islands.
"While it's a
beautiful day today, I think by Saturday we're not going to be seeing
this kind of weather, unless we are really lucky," said Honolulu Mayor
Kirk Caldwell.
"The potential with Ana is that the system
will have a lot more impact further down the island chain than what we
saw with Iselle," said Chris Brenchley with the National Weather
Service.
Downed trees, flash flooding and large waves are
also what officials are asking residents to prepare for as Ana makes it
way across the state."
Read more from KITV.com HERE:
Winter Weather Outlook
Say
it ain't snow... Yes, it getting to be that time of the year again.
We're starting to think about the cold, dark and snowy days of Winter.
NOAA released it's winter outlook on Thursday and this is what they had
to say:
"Below average temperatures are favored in parts of
the south-central and southeastern United States, while above-average
temperatures are most likely in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New
England, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued today by NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center.
While
drought may improve in some portions of the U.S. this winter,
California's record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in
large parts of the state. Nearly 60 percent of California is suffering
from exceptional drought – the worst category – with 2013 being the
driest year on record. Also, 2012 and 2013 rank in the top 10 of
California’s warmest years on record, and 2014 is shaping up to be
California’s warmest year on record. Winter is the wet season in
California, so mountainous snowfall will prove crucial for drought
recovery. Drought is expected to improve in California’s southern and
northwestern regions, but improvement is not expected until December or
January."
See the full report from NOAA HERE:
Here's a video from NOAA winter outlook...
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week/weekend ahead. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
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