46 F. average high on November 7.
36 F. high on November 7, 2013.
November 7 in Minnesota Weather History, courtesy of NOAA:
1999: November Heat Wave. Temperatures in the 70's and 80's in Minnesota with records shattered in many places. The Twin Cites had 73 degrees. Canby saw 82.
1943: Severe ice storm in the Twin Cities, and heavy snow over southwest Minnesota. One person died in St. Paul as a trolley car slid off the tracks and hit a pole. A Minneapolis man died shoveling snow. Many telephone poles were down due to the ice. Places like Worthington, Windom, and Marshall saw 14 to 16 inches of snow.
1870: First storm warning issued for Great Lakes by the U.S. Army.
Fast Forward Winter
"People don't notice whether it's winter or summer when they're happy" wrote Anton Chekhov. That may be true, but I think Sinclair Lewis was on the right track when he said "Winter is not a season, it's an occupation."
Over 3 decades I've noticed the first snow of winter triggers a disproportionate unease. "Will I remember how to drive on snow and slush? How much extra time should I allow for my commute?" If it's cold enough you quickly realize you're doing more sledding than driving. Pump those brakes - drive defensively!
Confidence levels are still low, but I'm still predicting the first real snow event of the winter Monday - probably enough to complicate travel plans, especially south of the Twin Cities. The ECWMF still shows a band of band of moderate snow setting up over the Twin Cities. NOAA models keep the heaviest snows just south of MSP. With temperatures falling through the 30s roads will be slushy/icy, especially after 3 pm Monday, with the best chance of a plowable snow coming south of the Twin Cities.
A streak of days with highs in the 20s next week? A taste of January is imminent but look at the bright side: our coldest days tend to be sunny. That helps a bit.
- October precipitation totals
were generally below-normal across most of Minnesota. Monthly rainfall
totals fell short of historical averages by one to two inches in most
locations. Areas of relative wetness were reported in some southeast
Minnesota counties where October rainfall totals topped historical
averages by an inch or more.
[see: October 2014 Precipitation Map | October 2014 Precipitation Departure Map | October 2014 Climate Summary Table]
- Average monthly temperatures for October in Minnesota were near, to slightly above, historical averages. Cool temperatures early in the month were counterbalanced by a late-month warm spell..."
An Inside Look At How Monster Tornadoes Can Form. The Weather Channel has the story - here's the introduction: "Ever wondered what it would look like if 90s blockbusters “Twister” and “The Matrix” were mashed up? OK probably not, but if it did happen, this 3-D model of a tornado is a likely candidate. Leigh Orf, a meteorologist at Central Michigan University, of what can cause and sustain a violent EF-5 tornado — the most — at the this week. The visuals show that while we often think of the atmosphere as air, it actually behaves and looks a lot like liquid..."
Animation credit: Leigh Orf.
Photo credit above: "The Grand Théâtre d'Albi's mesh façade can be tightened or loosened in different places." (Photo: Georges Fessy / DPA / Adagp.)
TODAY: Partly sunny, gusty & chilly. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 38
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 30
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, no drama yet. High: 39
SUNDAY NIGHT: Light snow mixed with rain possible late. Low: 28
MONDAY: Accumulating snow, icy/slushy roads. Potential for plowable amounts, especially south of the Twin Cities. High: 34
TUESDAY: Flurries taper, some PM sun. Cold! Wake-up: 19. High: 28
WEDNESDAY: A fine January day. Wind chill: 15. Wake-up: 12. High: 29
THURSDAY: Parka-worthy. More clouds than sun. Wake-up: 10. High: 27
FRIDAY: More sunshine, storm-free. Wake-up: 13. High: near 30
I Was Once A Climate Change Denier. Salon traces the chronology of one skeptic as he went from denying to ultimately accepting the science; here's a clip: "...As time went on, I was exposed to more and more evidence in support of climate change that I could no longer deny. I had no choice but to adapt my theory and finally admit to some sort of climate change. “OK, it may be happening, but how can you tell if it’s our fault? We lack a control Earth!” To back myself up, I clung to a variety of fringe arguments: “It’s the sun!” or “We can’t trust the measurements!” or “It has happened before! It’s normal!” and so on. (You can find a long list of common climate change myths debunked here and a shorter version here. Right now the list counts up to 176. New ones are added often.)..."
-Climate trends are clearly showing greater variability in some severe weather elements, including heavier rains, cluster outbreaks of tornadoes, more large hail, and seasonal changes in peak risk periods for hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. Peak season for heavy rainfall has shifted to August in our region.
-More research with reanalysis of upper air data and high resolution climate model outputs will be useful in further delineating the future risk of specific severe weather elements over finer scale geography.
-Climate trends are effecting recreation and tourism in terms of number of visitors and seasonal use and activity, e.g. northern MN more stable environment for winter recreation (skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing); Mississippi River accessibility for educational programs has recently been restricted due to many high flow periods..."
* data above courtesy of minnesotagasprices.com.