Weather Cooperates on Election Day - Winter Smack 4-7 Days Away

55 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday.
49 F. average high on November 3.
55 F. high on November 3, 2013.

November 3 in Minnesota Weather History:
1982: 20 inches of snow falls in the Kabatogema area.
1901: With a high temperature of only 22 and a low of 15, 175 boxcars of potatoes were in peril at the Minneapolis rail yard. Workers scrambled to move the rail cars full of tubers in roundhouses and transfer potatoes to refrigerated cars. Individual stoves had to be purchased on the spot for 59 remaining cars. Thankfully, most of the spuds were saved.
1853: Cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling. The next four days would be 16 degrees or lower.
1727: The first outdoor celebration at the chapel of Fort Beauharnois on Lake Pepin was postponed due to "variableness of the weather."

Vote

"No one pre­tends that democ­racy is per­fect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democ­racy is the worst form of Gov­ern­ment except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time" said Winston Churchill in 1947.

Researchers in 2007 released a report which suggests that Republicans should pray for rain on Election Day. "It is clear from our results that Republicans benefit from precipitation on Election Day." Not sure what that means for national senate races, but a dry, partly sunny sky cooperates with Minnesota voters today; highs in the low 50s.

Reasonable.

Old Man Winter has been fairly subdued in recent weeks but he goes on a Minnesota joy-ride early next week. ECMWF model guidance shows a chance of a little accumulating slush next Monday, followed by a blast of January-like chill. Temperatures may not climb out of the 20s next week at this time.

Our next clipper arrives Wednesday; rain ending as wet snow - a couple inches possible Brainerd to Hinckley Wednesday night.

None of this should come as a great shock. Average November snowfall at MSP is 9.3 inches. Last year only an inch fell. And we all know what happened next. Fingers crossed.

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The Honeymoon Is Almost Over. Two more days of temperatures close to average, and then a slow temperature tumble by late week, accelerating next week behind an even stronger push of Canadian air. Rain showers are possible Wednesday; the atmosphere may be cold enough for a light mix Friday and Saturday (probably nothing sticking), but colder air keeps temperatures 15-20F colder than average the first half of next week, and I could see a coating of slushy snow by Monday. Graphic: Weatherspark.

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Soggy Election Day Southern Plains, Mid South, Pacific Northwest. The East Coast stays dry today; no issues getting to the polls, but showers are likely from near Detroit and Indianapolis to Little Rock and Oklahoma City, where rain may be heavier and steadier. Skies clear over Minnesota with highs near 50F. NAM 4 km accumulated precipitation product: NOAA and HAMweather.

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60-Hour Snowfall Potential. A little slush is possible over northern Minnesota by Wednesday night as a clipper drags colder air south of the border, although I expect mostly rain in the Twin Cities Wednesday. The panhandle of Nebraska may see a plowable accumulation by midweek. Source: HAMweather.

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Election Day 2014 Forecast: Will Weather Help Determine Senate Control? Weather.com takes a look at how the state of the atmosphere from coast to coast may nudge the vote in a specific direction; here's an excerpt:

- In bad weather, Republican supporters are more likely to vote.
- Decided voters are almost twice as likely to vote in bad weather as undecided voters.
- Icy roads are the biggest weather impediment to voters age 55 and older, impacting roughly 1 in 8 such voters.
- Those with income levels less than $50,000 a year are less likely to vote on a bad weather day than those making more than $50,000 a year...."

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9 Things You Probably Didn't Know About Your Body's Internal Clock. Are you enjoying standard time? Now the sun seems to set shortly after lunch, but at least it's semi-bright when we stumble out of bed. Here's a clip from Huffington Post: "...Darkness is our biggest natural clue that bedtime is approaching. Artificial light, whether it comes from a lamp, the TV or even just your smartphone, can trick the brain into thinking it’s time to stay awake and alert rather than settle down. "Technology has effectively decoupled us from the natural 24-hour day to which our bodies evolved, driving us to go to bed later," Charles A. Czeisler, M.D., Ph.D., a professor of sleep medicine at Harvard Medical School, wrote in 2013. "And we use caffeine in the morning to rise as early as we ever did, putting the squeeze on sleep..."

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Lie Down And Tell The App What's Wrong. Voice pattern recognition to tip you off when you're depressed? Is there really an app for that too? Here's a clip from a story at Quartz: "Our phone may soon be able to tell if you’re depressed—and maybe even help you feel better. Researchers at the University of Maryland have found that vocal patterns change as feelings of depression worsen, and they suggest the world is not too far away from a computer program that can analyze your speech to assess the state of your mental health..."

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Let's Start Talking About A Radically Different Future of News. American Journalism Review has an interesting story; here's an excerpt: "...Now four new technology advances are poised to fundamentally change the nature of information distribution: The Internet of Things (IoT), location tracking, wearable computers and the semantic web. All four are already being implemented in a variety of commercial and governmental applications. When they merge and become part of the communications system, they are going to bring profound changes to our daily lives and to the very nature of news..."

Photo credit: Wearable technology, photo via COM SOLUD, via Creative Commons license on Flickr.

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TODAY: Partly sunny & breezy. Go vote. Winds: W 15+ High: 53
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 35
WEDNESDAY: Showers may end as a little snow late. High: 44
THURSDAY: More clouds than sun, cold breeze. Wake-up: 32. High: 41
FRIDAY: Sunny start, clouds increase late. Wake-up: 28. High: 43
SATURDAY: Cloudy & cold. Few flurries? Wake-up: 37. High: 39
SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, still cold. Wake-up: 27. High: 37
MONDAY: Period of wet snow possible, especially far southern MN. Wake-up: 28. High: 32

* Photo credit: Mike Hall.

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Climate Stories...

U.N. Report: Climate Change Has Permanently Ruined Farmland The Size of France. The UK's Independent has the article; here's the intro: "There may be those who feel the apocalyptic plot of the new Hollywood film Interstellar seems a bit far-fetched, with humans forced to look for an alternative planet because this world can no longer feed them. But it has been given credence by a new United Nations report that has found that the destruction of the environment has left an area of farmland the size of France useless for growing crops..."

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The Missing Campus Climate Debate. 350.org continues to push for divestment of fossil fuel investments on America's campuses, but the results have been less than overwhelming. Here's a clip from a story at The New York Times: "...This unique issue is being decided by trustees, who see their responsibility as maximizing returns. Gofossilfree.org has identified only 41 schools with investor responsibility committees, but they are advisory, with authority reserved to the fiduciaries. Of course, global warming is at bottom a dilemma about the nature of fiduciary duty — about whether that duty is solely to make money or whether we also owe an ethical obligation to endangered species, the inhabitants of low-lying islands and our children. If this debate included more voices, one can’t help but imagine that our universities might construe their obligation more broadly." (Graphic credit: New York Times).

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Weather Channel Co-Founder John Coleman Prefers Conspiracies to Climate Science. Because sometimes conspiracy theories are just easier. Thinking is hard work. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "...Coleman has publicly denied the scientific reality of human-caused global warming for years, telling Fox News in 2008 that he wanted to sue Al Gore, for example. There’s no new content in these latest interviews; just the usual long-debunked climate myths and conspiracy theories. Coleman is apparently considered a credible climate interviewee because he was instrumental in creating The Weather Channel 32 years ago, but he’s woefully misinformed when it comes to climate science..." (File photo: Wikimedia).

"Why Does Anyone Pay Attention to John Coleman on Climate Change?" Jason Samenow asks the rhetorical question at Capital Weather Gang.

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Enough With The Fat Climate Change Reports Already. Eric Roston at Bloomberg makes the point that written reports from IPCC every few years, in an instant-gratification Internet world, might not make the most sense. Here's an excerpt: "...Today, we're living in a Wikipedia world, where knowledge is more obviously alive and evolving. So maybe they should make the IPCC a publicly viewable social network of professional scientists who continuously spar with each other over hot topics -- something that's already been occurring for years on scientists' blogs, like RealClimate.org. That way, the researchers can maintain a rolling assessment of the state of things, and anyone interested can peer over their shoulders. Qualified scientists would give a thumbs up or down to each other's comments, as on Reddit.com. When the situation warrants, they could issue authoritative but shorter reports on critical topics of the moment, more regularly than they do now..."

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Iceland Is The Only Country Benefiting From Climate Change. You could make an argument that Canada and Russia are also benefiting from a perpetual warming trend. Here's an excerpt from a story at Newsweek: "...Along with the warmer weather and consequently longer growing season, trees shoot up more quickly; forests are growing about 50 percent faster than they were when measured in the 1960s, Sigurgeirsson says. Meanwhile, new varieties are showing up and prospering. Twenty years ago, it would be difficult—if not impossible—to find valuable trees like oak, beech, rhododendron, apple, pear or cherry. But now these species are “beginning to flourish and the fruit trees have begun to bear fruit,” Sigurgeirsson says..."