30 F. average high on December 5.
14 F. high on December 5, 2013.
1" snow on the ground at MSP International Airport.
December 5, 1950: A snowstorm hits Duluth with 23.2 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a storm total of 35.2 inches.
December 5, 1939: December heat wave. High temperature hits 62 at New London.
Nature (nor science for that matter) ever moves in a perfectly straight line. Minnesota's weather is the meteorological equivalent of a runaway roller coaster at Valley Fair. The sky overhead is rarely "average". We go from one extreme to the next. November was worth forgetting: coldest since 1995 statewide; 3rd longest stretch of consecutive sub-freezing days since 1871 (total of 11).
But the atmosphere often tries to regain equilibrium, even things out a little. Unusually cold outbreaks are often (but not always) followed by big warm swings in the opposite direction. Such is the case late next week.
An extended thaw seems likely as a bubble of Pacific warmth pushes east of the Rockies. A warm ridge of high pressure should result in 40s late next week; I still think we may top 50F one week from today. You'll be amazed how good that will feel.
Long-range models show a mild bias into Christmas week, possibly longer. At some point the Pacific party will be crashed by the Arctic Express, but I don't see any truly bitter air into late December.
El Nino isn't official, not yet, but I'm seeing early symptoms: drought-easing rains for California; a warming trend close to home. Consider it a fleeting mid-winter siesta.
* Super Typhoon Hagupit approaching Philippines, weakening slightly, but still expected to strike as a severe typhoon/hurricane Saturday. Minor to moderate flood/wind damage possible in Manila by Sunday as Hagupit tracks due west. Bicol Peninsula expected to bear the brunt of Hagupit's fury and storm surge.
* Flooding rains expected northern California into Pacific Northwest as a series of storms push inland. Mudslides and power outages can't be ruled out with this next series of storms.
* Potential nor'easter brewing for Mid Atlantic and New England next Tuesday and Wednesday, December 9-10.
Summary: We're watching Typhoon Hagupit pushing toward the Philippines, on a track north of "Haiyan" in late 2013. I don't expect the same level of damage as we saw with Haiyan, but Hagupit (also called "Ruby" in The Philippines) is a very dangerous storm - there will be widespread damage and loss of life south/east of Manila, across the Bicol Peninsula. Moderate damage, street flooding and sporadic power outages may impact metro Manila over the weekend, especially Sunday morning, local time.
Meanwhile more flooding rains are likely early next week from Seattle into the Bay Area; while a potentially disruptive nor'easter changes a cold, windswept rain to snow from the suburbs of New York City to Boston next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Paul Douglas - Senior Meteorologist - Alerts Broadcaster
- Average monthly temperatures for November
in Minnesota were well below historical averages, ranging from six to
ten degrees below normal. Numerous records for all-time minimum high
daily temperatures were set during the month. Extremes for November
ranged from a high of 60 degrees F at a number of locales on the 2nd, to
a low of -25 degrees F at Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods County) on the
[see: November 2014 Climate Summary Table]
- Snow depths
across Minnesota vary from zero to eight inches. Little or no snow
cover is on the ground in southwest Minnesota. Whereas, some areas of
south central, west central, and northeast Minnesota report six to eight
inches of snow depth in early December.
[see: NWS Snow Depth Estimation Map]
- The U. S. Drought Monitor, released on December 4, indicated that Abnormally Dry conditions exist over large sections of Minnesota, the result of a dry late summer and autumn. A small area of west central Minnesota is placed in the Moderate Drought category. The Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators.
TODAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 28
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, not as cold. Low: 20
SUNDAY: Wet PM snow. Inch or two of slush possible late. High: 33
MONDAY: Slick spots early. Slow clearing. Wake-up: 26. High: 32
TUESDAY: Blue sky, cooler with less wind. Wake-up: 14. High: 26
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, milder breeze. Wake-up: 21. High: 34
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Go ahead and exhale. Wake-up: 30. High: 42
FRIDAY: Gray & mild, vague hints of March. Wake-up: 32. High: 45
Photo credit: Tom Purdy.
Photo credit above: "Glaciers seen during NASA’s Operation IceBridge research flight to West Antarctica on Oct. 29, 2014. A new analysis of the fastest-melting region of Antarctica has found that the melt rate of glaciers there has tripled during the last decade." Credit: NASA/Michael Studinger.
That conclusion would be wrong – it would simply be a misunderstanding of the meaning of the confidence intervals. They are not confidence intervals on whether a warming has taken place – it certainly has. These confidence intervals have nothing to do with measurement uncertainties, which are far smaller.
- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/recent-global-warming-trends-significant-or-paused-or-what/#sthash.vijqTxcP.dpuf
Animation credit: "Spring atmospheric CO2 concentrations, when they're usually at their peak." Credit: NASA
Cartoon credit: Tom Toles, Washington Post.