25 F. average high on January 31.
9 F. high on January 31, 2014.
-9 F. morning low on January 31, 2014.
0" snow on the ground at KMSP.
January 31, 1931: Heat wave across southern Minnesota. St. Peter hits 60.
"So Paul, last week's big snowfall bust in New York City, is it because meteorologists have become too dependent on weather models?" Cathy Wurzer asked me on TPT Almanac Friday. Great question.
We do look at scores of models, comparing, looking for agreement. So much noise, so little wisdom. But if it weren't for models weather forecasts beyond 12-24 hours would be difficult; a 7-Day Outlook impossible.
Accuracy is improving 1 percent a year; today's 5-Day forecast roughly as reliable as a 2-Day forecast 30 years ago. But weather is chaotic with huge variations over short distances. When you're on the edge of a storm all bets are off. People want perfection in a very imperfect world. In the end you try to err on the side of caution & public safety.
Welcome to the least snow so deep in a winter in 13 years. January was the driest since 2008 according to Mark Seeley. Today's storm brushes the metro with a coating to an inch or two (southern suburbs); a 6-10 inch coating from Chicago to Boston. Nothing polar is on the way, but temperatures run below average this week. Models (sorry Cathy) hint at a thaw next week. The next chance of snow from a wayward clipper: Saturday, maybe a few inches.
You remember snow right?
Illustration by Jan Diehm / The Huffington Post.
Image credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola, File.
TODAY: Early coating to an inch or 2; plowable snow far south. Partial clearing, cold wind. North 10-15. High: 15
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing and chilly. Low: 3
MONDAY: Early sun, clouds increase. High: 17
TUESDAY: Still gray, seasonably chilly. Wake-up: 10. High: 23
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, an even colder shot. Wake-up: 8. High: 16
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, few flurries. Wake-up: 6. High: 19
FRIDAY: Cloudy and milder. Light snow north. Wake-up: 13. High: near 30
SATURDAY: Stronger clipper. Potential for a few inches? Wake-up: 19. High: 25
Most Americans Support Government Action on Climate Change, Poll Finds. Here's an excerpt of a New York Times article and poll result that made me do a double-take: "...Among Republicans, 48 percent said they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports fighting climate change, a result that Jon A. Krosnick, a professor of political science at Stanford University and an author of the survey, called "the most powerful finding" in the poll. Many Republican candidates either question the science of climate change or do not publicly address the issue..."