36 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.
27 F. average high on February 7.
12 F. high on February 7, 2014, after waking up to -5 F.
1" snow on the ground at KMSP.
February 7, 1996:
Showers and thunderstorms bring a mix of ice and rain across the
eastern portion of Minnesota. In Edina, lightning damaged a house.
February 7, 1933: Arctic air entrenched across Minnesota with a morning low of -55 at Warroad.
All or Nothing
Truth
be told weather has never been average or normal. A clumsy waltz of
weather fronts greeted the first caveman peering out at an uncertain
sky. Since then untold fortunes have been spent trying to engineer the
vagaries of weather out of our lives. We split the atom, mapped the
human genome and sent men to the moon. But we still can't disrupt a
tornado or stop a snowstorm.
The third major storm in 2 weeks
dumps another foot and a half of snow on Boston, on top of 43 inches
since late January. What's going on? The same drive-by clippers that
drop narrow carpets of blowing snow across Minnesota go on to spin up
major coastal storms - Nor'easters - spewing a fire-hose of Atlantic
moisture on New England, where extreme precipitation events (rain and
snow) have spiked 71 percent in the last 50 years, compared to a 45
percent increase here in Minnesota.
You'll be SHOCKED! to hear
that no big storms are showing up close to home. Another clipper drops a
nuisance snow on Tuesday, maybe a couple inches, as temperatures start
to chill. We may flirt with zero a few mornings late next week but I see
nothing to rival last year's pioneer winter.
Snow would be nice but I don't yet miss the polar vortex.
Another Major League Dumping.
Watch the snowfall amounts spike (purple and blue shades show regions
expecting more than a foot of additional snow) as a clipper taps
moisture from the Atlantic. Maybe Boston can ship some of that 12-18" of
additional snow to Minnesota? 60-hour NAM accumulated snow: NOAA and
Aeris Weather.
Another Temperature Correction.
Although hardly polar-vortex-cold, temperatures dip below average the
latter half of next week, with a few subzero lows likely from next
Thursday morning into the following week. It still looks like the core
of the coldest air is aimed at New England, not Minnesota. We'll get a
glancing blow, just cold enough to remind you that this is still prime
time wintertime. Graph: Weatherspark.
Another Subzero Smack?
GFS guidance shows another surge of numbing air reaching Minnesota
between February 17-19, with moderation by the last week of February as
prevailing winds become more westerly, blowing in milder air from the
Pacific.
Late February Warming Trend for Minnesota - Growing Tornado Potential Southern USA.
I could see a fairly significant severe storm outbreak for the
southeastern USA if the GFS model verifies, a very active southerly
branch to the jet stream possibly providing the necessary wind shear for
violent thunderstorms. Meanwhile a more westerly shift in the jet
stream winds should mean more 30s for Minnesota. Map: GrADS:COLA/IGES
Alerts Broadcaster Briefing: Issued Saturday night, February 7, 2015.
* Long-duration snow event for much of New England, snowfall amounts by Monday night range from plowable to crippling.
*
Winds stay below blizzard criteria,
and the extended period of light to moderate snow, coupled with less
blowing and drifting, should make it a little easier to remove snow from
roads than last week's bonafied blizzard.
* 12-18" possible in
Boston by Monday night;
New York City sees rain later Sunday ending as ice and a couple inches of slushy snow Monday.
Another Mutant Clipper.
Fast-moving storms diving southeast out of Canada are strengthening as
they approach the east coast, tapping copious moisture from the Atlantic
ocean, meaning a 36-48 hour snow event for much of interior New
England.
Winter Storm Warnings In Effect.
The difference this time around, no blizzard watches or warnings.
Snowfall amounts will be nearly as high as last Monday from Hartford and
Albany to Springfield, Boston, Nashua, Montpelier and Rutland. Snow
increases in intensity during the day Sunday, slowly tapering by Monday
night. Map: Aeris Weather.
Deja Vu All Over Again.
This is getting old for Boston residents; 44" of snow from 2 blizzards
in one week, and now a third major snow event capable of at least
another foot of snow, capable of widespread travel disruptions from
Hartford to Boston, Portland and upstate New York. Map: Aeris Weather.
Converging Models.
Although the models we study, including GFS, NAM and ECMWF never
totally agree (on anything) there is sufficient agreement in where the
axis of heaviest snow should set up (Rochester to Boston) and general
amounts in excess of a foot for much of interior New England.
Tracking Boston Amounts.
Our internal Aeris models show snowfall totals as high as 15-17" by
Tuesday morning. With temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere
consistently below freezing, over 1.5" liquid precipitation translates
into a foot and a half of accumulation for some Boston suburbs.
A Very Snowy Rut.
From time to time the atmosphere becomes locked in a specific pattern,
with storms traveling along the same track, resulting in excessive
rainfall or snowfall amounts. Residents of Boston and the rest of New
England won't need much convincing. The challenge of where to put the
snow will become glaring in the next 36 hours. I expect widespread
closures Monday, the transportation grid slowly improving Tuesday.
Graphic: Iowa State.
Icing Potential.
Our internal models show significant icing from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton
and Allentown into northern New Jersey, metro New York City and parts of
Connecticut Sunday night into Monday morning, south of the heaviest
snow bands.
Summary: This may wind up becoming
one of Boston's 3 snowiest winters on record at the rate we're going,
with plowable to crippling impacts for much of New England. Conditions
continue to deteriorate into Monday, and although not a blizzard,
disruptions will be widespread. The greatest potential for icing and
subsequent power outages will be from eastern Pennsylvania into northern
New Jersey and the Tri-State area. Good luck, be careful out there.
Paul Douglas - Senior Meteorologist - Alerts Broadcaster
A Family Of Alberta Clippers.
It's been a relatively quiet start to February; nothing resembling a
"storm" in the classic sense, just a series of fast-moving disturbances
dropping out of Canada. Dr. Mark Seeley takes a look at clippers in this
week's edition of
Minnesota WeatherTalk; here's a clip: "...
Additionally
Alberta Clippers usually usher in colder air from higher latitude.
Such was the case this week as many northern climate stations reported
some overnight lows in the -20s°F, with Ely falling to -30°F and
Embarrass and Cotton reporting -31°F. With 7 inches of Alberta Clipper
delivered snow on the ground, even Preston (Fillmore County) in
southeastern Minnesota fell to -21°F this week. These were the coldest
temperatures since the first half of January..."
An Exclusive Look At Sony's Hacking Saga. Vanity Fair has more details on the chronology of the largest corporate hack in history; here's the prologue: "
The
devastating moment that Amy Pascal and Michael Lynton learned Sony had
been taken hostage by vicious cyber-criminals targeting The Interview,
was just the beginning of the drama. Mark Seal speaks with Seth Rogen
and Evan Goldberg for an inside account of Hollywood caught in the
crosshairs..."
Image credit above: "
Seth Rogen,
Sony Pictures co-chairman Amy Pascal, North Korea leader Kim Jong Un,
Sony Pictures C.E.O. Michael Lynton, and James Franco."
The Next Internet Is TV. The Awl
has an intriguing story that focuses on apps that bring people
together, virtually or in-person. Will they eventually eclipse the power
and reach of legacy media? Here's a clip: "...
The only thing that
keeps people coming back to apps in great enough numbers over time to
make real money is the presence of other people. So the only apps that
people use in the way publications want their readers to behave—with
growing loyalty that can be turned into money—are communications
services. The near-future internet puts the publishing and
communications industries in competition with each other for the same
confused advertising dollars, and it’s not even close..."
Americans Are Too Blinded By Fandom To Save Football From Destroying Itself.
Yeah, those concussions and brain injuries are unfortunate, now get out
of the way of my TV screen while I turn up the volume on the game. Not
sure what to make of this, but a story at
Quartz is worth reading - here's a clip: "...
Participation
has been waning for years. Between 2008 and 2013 the number of people
playing tackle football, the full-contact version of the sport, declined
by 1.9 million people, a drop of 23%, according to the Sports Industry
and Fitness Association. There has even been an exodus from safer
variants like “flag” football (down 21%) and touch football (down 32%)..."
Why Did Brian Williams Lie? Or
misremember, my new favorite word. Maybe it all stems from a desire not
to disappoint, an almost subconscious desire to tell a better story,
according to a story at
POLITICO; here's an excerpt that caught my eye: "...
Alas,
the human tendency to juice our stories is universal, and it’s a
temptation that some journalists find impossible to resist. When we tell
our personal stories, we tend to add dramatic pauses that will build
suspense. In each retelling, we tend to incorporate into it the
reactions of the last audience, escalating the drama that got a good
reaction, tamping down the events that dragged, and making up stuff to
further engage our audiences. We supplement and reshape our stories both
subconsciously and deliberately, because there is no public shame like
the public shame that follows the telling of a boring tale..."
Photo credit: Brad Barket/Invision/AP, File.
"Cloud Bursting" Service Can Ensure Sunny Wedding Photos for $150,000. Uh huh. A sucker is born every minute; for people with more money than sense check out a story at
PetaPixel; here's an excerpt: "
Want
to ensure sunshine for bright and happy outdoor wedding photographs?
All you need is $150,000. A UK-based company has begun offering a “cloud
bursting” service that can 100% guarantee fair weather for your wedding
day and photographs. Oliver’s Travels, a luxury travel and rental
service, has begun offering the service for prospective brides and grooms who are interested in a sunny destination wedding at certain venues in France..."
Image credit: "
Header graphic created with photos by Milkbar Nick and Les Chatfield, and illustration by DooFi"
TODAY: Gray, a few flakes in the air. Winds: NE 10. High: 31
SUNDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, colder. Low: 18
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and some sun. High: 29
TUESDAY: Clipper, couple inches of snow? Wake-up: 23. High: near 30
WEDNESDAY: Flurries taper, clearing and colder. Wake-up: 20. High: 25
THURSDAY: Blue sky, yep - still winter. Wake-up: -3. High: 13
FRIDAY: Cloudy clipper, coating of snow? Wake-up: 0. High: 21
SATURDAY: Cloudy, colder front arrives late. Wake-up: 12. High: 30
* image credit above:
Mike Hall Photography.
Climate Stories....
Global Warming May Spawn More Southeast U.S. Tornadoes. Live Science has the details of new research and projections; here's an excerpt: "...
Researchers examined how global warming
will affect severe weather during the heart of tornado season — March,
April and May. They found that while the yearly tornado total will climb
by 2080, the number of tornadoes will also vary wildly from year to
year. That's because sometimes, the weather will get stuck in a pattern
that favors tornadoes,
and sometimes, conditions will stymie stormy weather, according to the
report, published Jan. 15 in the journal Climatic Change..."
The Global Heat Is On For Congress. An Op-Ed at
The Prior Lake American resonated with me, a terrific summation of the threat...and opportunity. Here's an excerpt: "...
Ronald
Reagan’s Secretary of State George Schultz is a Citizens’ Climate Lobby
(CCL) advisory board member. CCL is a nonprofit and nonpartisan group
focused on national policies to address climate change. Schultz supports
CCL’s 100-percent revenue-neutral carbon fee and dividend plan while
Art Laffer, economic advisor to President Reagan, calls it a
“no-brainer.” The fee and dividend plan is very simple. Place a steadily
rising fee on the carbon dioxide content of fossil fuels, enact border
adjustments to ensure fairness and competition for American businesses,
and return 100 percent of the revenue to American households to offset
energy price increases..."
Climate Changes Are Coming To The American Heartland. Here's an excerpt of a good summary of the recent "Risky Business" report for the Midwest at
fastcoexist.com: "...
Some
counties in northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan could benefit
from warmer temperatures, as farmers extend their growing seasons. But
most of the impacts are likely to be negative. Rising temperatures could
increase energy demand
(because of the need for more air conditioning), decrease productivity
(because outdoor workers tend to toil less hard in hotter weather), and
drive up mortality rates (because older people are affected by hotter
temperatures)..."
Climate Change As A Significant National Security Threat.
More like a force-multiplier, volatility that can help to result in
civil unrest, mass migrations, even war. Here's an excerpt from
Politico: "...
Climate
change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security,
contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and
conflicts over basic resources like food and water,” the document
states, according to the former U.S. official. “The present day effects
of climate change are being felt from the Arctic to the Midwest.
Increased sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal regions,
infrastructure, and property. In turn, the global economy suffers,
compounding the growing costs of preparing and restoring infrastructure...”
Can We Reverse-Engineeer The Environment? An article at
The New York Times Magazine caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "...
More
than 1,000 dams have been removed from American rivers in the past
century, 72 of them last year. Homesteaders drained wetlands; after
Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, we’re building them. Battling the effects
of climate change is now central to the Army Corps’s mission. Having
spent centuries trying to bring natural forces under our control, our
civil engineers are now declaring peace with them, or at least
establishing diplomatic relations..."
What Should We Tell The Kids About Climate Change? Bloomberg has the story - here's a clip: "...
Efforts
to block teaching about climate change echo attempts by religious
conservatives two decades ago to put creationism based on biblical
teaching on equal footing with evolution in science classrooms. “On one
side you have 97 percent of scientists and video of melting polar caps,
and on the other you have 3 percent of scientists, with discredited
theories,” Hoyos says. “Why give them equal space?..."
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