49 F. average high on March 31.
58 F. high reported on March 31, 2014.
.45" rain predicted this evening and tonight (NAM model)
82 F. record high for April 1 (set in 1882).
Lukewarm & Loud
"The weather is here, wish you were beautiful!" Thanks Dad. I wish my 84-year old father would stop sending me postcards.
"You must be popular today" a bank teller gushed yesterday. It'll pass, I replied.
But the older I get the more I force myself to savor the good times. Being in the moment, right? Hold on. I think I can photograph this springy sky with my smartphone as soon as I answer this text and respond to 213 e-mails in my in-box.
Do yourself a favor: take a mental health break and sneak outside today, as we enjoy the warmest day since the mercury hit 72 degrees on October 16, 2014. Long-lost neighbors will emerge from hibernation, squinting up at the sun.
The atmosphere overhead may be unstable enough to spawn a few cauliflower clouds by the dinner hour - thunderheads capable of small hail and gusty winds. The threat of severe weather is greatest south of MSP. NOAA's NAM model prints out over half an inch of rain tonight. I'm skeptical but I hope it's right.
We cool off later in the week, in fact brisk sweatshirt weather lingers into next week, with a better chance of rain Monday and Tuesday - possibly mixed with slushy snow up north.
Don't write off winter just yet. Sorry.
Surprising Research About Weather And Your Mood. Here's a snippet from a story at About Health: "...The commonly held belief that sunny bright days and pleasant weather generally makes people happier was not supported by this research. It was determined that temperature, wind and level of sunlight had a significant effect on negative mood. Sunlight also seemed to have an effect on participants' energy level. The authors speculated that sunlight's effects on tiredness may have something to do with Vitamin D3, which is indicated in the production of serotonin. Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that is involved with mood and level of energy..."
Photo credit above: "Storm damage to a home in Moore, Okla. on Thursday, March 26, 2015. A tornado hit the area on Wednesday evening causing damage in the area." Photo by Chris Landsberger, The Oklahoman.
Photo credit: Michael Dwyer, AP.
* Latest U.S. Drought Monitor for California is here.
Image credit: "Argentina’s Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. It is located near 63°S latitude." Image from Wikipedia.
Image credit above: "The technique uses satellite radar imagery to observe ground displacement, giving researchers rapid insights into the impact of earthquakes." (Image: ESA/University of Iowa).
Two weeks ago NOAA published the following map of temperature anomalies for the past December-January-February (i.e. the Northern Hemisphere winter). One week ago, we published a paper in Nature Climate Change (which had been in the works for a few years) arguing that the cold in the subpolar North Atlantic is indicative of an AMOC slowdown (as discussed in my last post).
- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/a-hypothesis-about-the-cold-winter-in-eastern-north-america/#sthash.LPZr0qKX.dpuf
* Is The Definition of Adulthood Changing for Millenials? The Guardian has the story.
Image credit above: "The relative frequency of 'dragons' in fictional literature (thick red line), as determined as a unigram probability4, with two historical reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature (decadal smoothing) shown in blue5 and purple6. Global temperatures have been measured since 1855 (thick black line5). Temperature anomalies represent deviations from the 1961–90 reference period. The rising incidence of dragons in the literature correlates with rising temperatures, and suggests that these fire-breathing lizards are being sighted more frequently. As a result, the large-scale 'Third Stir' is deemed to be imminent."
TODAY: Fading sun, windy and warm, late-day T-storms. Winds: S 20-35. High: 73
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Showers and T-storms, locally heavy rain possible. Low: 45
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler breeze kicks in. High: near 60
FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, brisk for April. Wake-up: 31. High: 47
SATURDAY: Patchy clouds, isolated shower. Wake-up: 30. High: 46
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds, still raw. Wake-up: 33. High: 49
MONDAY: Cold rain develops. Wake-up: 35. High: 45
TUESDAY: Heavier rain possible, still chilly. Wake-up: 36. High: near 50
Photo credit upper left: "A photo taken from the Muir Inlet in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska between the 1880s and 1890s, shows the 328-foot-high terminus of the glacier and numerous icebergs, some more than 6 feet in diameter." (Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve Archive).
Photo credit upper right: "A northwest looking photograph taken from the same location in 2005 shows that the Muir Glacier has retreated more than 31 miles and is completely out of the field of view. The glacier in the background to the right is Riggs Glacier. Abundant vegetation is visible." (Bruce F. Molnia/USGS).